Bayesian methods for estimating multi-segment discharge rating curves   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Trond Reitan  Asgeir Petersen-Øverleir 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(5):627-642

This study explores Bayesian methods for handling compound stage–discharge relationships, a problem which arises in many natural rivers. It is assumed: (1) the stage–discharge relationship in each rating curve segment is a power-law with a location parameter, or zero-plane displacement; (2) the segment transitions are abrupt and continuous; and (3) multiplicative measurement errors are of equal variance. The rating curve fitting procedure is then formulated as a piecewise regression problem where the number of segments and the associated changepoints are assumed unknown. Procedures are developed for describing both global and site-specific prior distributions for all rating curve parameters, including the changepoints. Estimation and uncertainty analysis is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) techniques. The first model explored accounts for parameter and model uncertainties in the interpolated area, i.e. within the range of available stage–discharge measurements. A second model is constructed in an attempt to include the uncertainty in extrapolation, which is necessary when the rating curve is used to estimate discharges beyond the highest or lowest measurement. This is done by assuming that the rate of changepoints both inside and outside the measured area follows a Poisson process. The theory is applied to actual data from Norwegian gauging stations. The MCMC solutions give results that appear sensible and useful for inferential purposes, though the latter model needs further efforts in order to obtain a more efficient simulation scheme.  相似文献   

Fast assessment of earthquake loss and its application to the 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake     

Xiaoqing Wang Xiang Ding Long Wang  Yan Wang Institute of Earthquake Science  China Earthquake Administration  Beijing  China 《地震学报(英文版)》2009,(2):129-133

The paper introduces firstly the seismic loss assessment method based on macro-economic indicators and new vulnerability models determined by the data from the on-site damage and loss survey to earthquakes occurred in China during the last two decades.The fast assessment for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with MS8.0 is given based on an empirical intensity attenuation relationship.Compared with the assessment based on the practical seismic intensity map of the event according to the on-site investigation, the...  相似文献   

绝对重力仪国际比对现状   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

吴书清  吉望西  刘达伦  徐进义  粟多武 《地球物理学进展》2009,24(2):768-773

当前负责重力测量的国际组织CCM-WGG和SGCAG决定今后将举办绝对重力仪区域性国际比对,并开始着手在世界范围内选择区域性国际比对点.CCM-WGG和SGCAG制定了国际比对的技术规范,讨论了绝对重力仪比对申请为关键性国际比对的议案.本文将介绍相关的国际情况以及中国计量科学研究院在这方面所做的工作.本文还将介绍2005年第七次国际绝对重力仪比对的情况和初步结果.  相似文献   

Uncertainty analysis of CO_2 flux components in subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation     

LIU Min      HE HongLin  YU GuiRui  LUO YiQi  SUN XiaoMin & WANG HuiMin Institute of Geographic Sciences  Natural Resources Research  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Beijing  China  Gradute School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences  Beijing  School of Geography Science  Nanjing Normal University  Nanjing 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2009,(2)

We present an uncertainty analysis of ecological process parameters and CO2 flux components (Reco, NEE and gross ecosystem exchange (GEE)) derived from 3 years’ continuous eddy covariance meas-urements of CO2 fluxes at subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation, Qianyanzhou of ChinaFlux. Daily-differencing approach was used to analyze the random error of CO2 fluxes measurements and bootstrapping method was used to quantify the uncertainties of three CO2 flux components. In addition, we evaluated different ...  相似文献   

Modelling blue and green water resources availability in Iran   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Monireh Faramarzi  Karim C. Abbaspour  Rainer Schulin  Hong Yang 《水文研究》2009,23(3):486-501

Knowledge of the internal renewable water resources of a country is strategic information which is needed for long‐term planning of a nation's water and food security, among many other needs. New modelling tools allow this quantification with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study we used the program Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in combination with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting program (SUFI‐2) to calibrate and validate a hydrologic model of Iran based on river discharges and wheat yield, taking into consideration dam operations and irrigation practices. Uncertainty analyses were also performed to assess the model performance. The results were quite satisfactory for most of the rivers across the country. We quantified all components of the water balance including blue water flow (water yield plus deep aquifer recharge), green water flow (actual and potential evapotranspiration) and green water storage (soil moisture) at sub‐basin level with monthly time‐steps. The spatially aggregated water resources and simulated yield compared well with the existing data. The study period was 1990–2002 for calibration and 1980–1989 for validation. The results show that irrigation practices have a significant impact on the water balances of the provinces with irrigated agriculture. Concerning the staple food crop in the country, 55% of irrigated wheat and 57% of rain‐fed wheat are produced every year in water‐scarce regions. The vulnerable situation of water resources availability has serious implications for the country's food security, and the looming impact of climate change could only worsen the situation. This study provides a strong basis for further studies concerning the water and food security and the water resources management strategies in the country and a unified approach for the analysis of blue and green water in other arid and semi‐arid countries. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Roles of Spatial Locations and Patterns of Initial Errors in the Uncertainties of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

CHEN Boyu  MU Mu 《大气科学进展》2012,29(1):63-78

In this study,a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones (TCs),TC Longwang (2005) and TC Sinlaku (2008),to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts.Specifically,three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),first singular vector (FSV),and composite singular vector (CSV) methods.Additionally,random initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered.Based on these four types of initial errors and areas,we designed and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments of the errors,and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts.Overall,results from the experiments indicate the following:(1) The impact of random errors introduced into the sensitive areas was greater than that of errors themselves fixed in the randomly selected areas.From the perspective of statistical analysis,and by comparison,the impact of random errors introduced into the CNOP target area was greatest.(2) The initial errors with CNOP,CSV,or FSV patterns were likely to grow faster than random errors.(3) The initial errors with CNOP patterns in the CNOP target areas had the greatest impacts on the final verification forecasts.  相似文献   

试论未来极端气候事件发展趋势的不确定性     

李志忠  刘秀铭  陈秀玲  姜修洋  雷国良  朱芸  靳建辉  胡凡根 《福建地理》2012,(1):12-20

极端气候事件是在一定时间尺度上发生的不同于气候系统平均状态的气候突变.早第三纪的最热事件（PETM）,第四纪中国黄土高原古土壤S4、S5记录的暖湿事件,砂黄土L9、L15记录的干冷事件等都是在轨道时间尺度上发生的极端气候事件.末次冰消期的YD冷事件、全新世9次冷事件是在千—百年尺度上发生的极端气候事件.这些极端气候事件出现于地球气候系统不同的冷暖背景下,它们的成因机制和表现形式有很多不确定性.20世纪以来发生的干旱、洪水、飓风、雪灾、沙尘暴等极端气候事件,无法用持续增加的温室气体的变化来解释.关于极端气候事件发生频率和强度随＂全球变暖＂而增加的结论也存在一定程度的不确定性.因此,简单地将现代极端气候事件统统归因于＂气候变暖＂既不科学也不合理.深入研究各个时间尺度上发生的极端气候事件的波动性、周期性和不确定性特征,有助于科学预测未来气候变化背景下极端气候事件的发展趋势.  相似文献   

High‐temporal resolution fluvial sediment source fingerprinting with uncertainty: a Bayesian approach          下载免费PDF全文

Richard J. Cooper  Tobias Krueger  Kevin M. Hiscock  Barry G. Rawlins 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(1):78-92

This contribution addresses two developing areas of sediment fingerprinting research. Specifically, how to improve the temporal resolution of source apportionment estimates whilst minimizing analytical costs and, secondly, how to consistently quantify all perceived uncertainties associated with the sediment mixing model procedure. This first matter is tackled by using direct X‐ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRFS) and diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS) analyses of suspended particulate matter (SPM) covered filter papers in conjunction with automatic water samplers. This method enables SPM geochemistry to be quickly, accurately, inexpensively and non‐destructively monitored at high‐temporal resolution throughout the progression of numerous precipitation events. We then employed a Bayesian mixing model procedure to provide full characterization of spatial geochemical variability, instrument precision and residual error to yield a realistic and coherent assessment of the uncertainties associated with source apportionment estimates. Applying these methods to SPM data from the River Wensum catchment, UK, we have been able to apportion, with uncertainty, sediment contributions from eroding arable topsoils, damaged road verges and combined subsurface channel bank and agricultural field drain sources at 60‐ and 120‐minute resolution for the duration of five precipitation events. The results presented here demonstrate how combining Bayesian mixing models with the direct spectroscopic analysis of SPM‐covered filter papers can produce high‐temporal resolution source apportionment estimates that can assist with the appropriate targeting of sediment pollution mitigation measures at a catchment level. © 2015 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

An investigation into the effects of damping and nonlinear geometry models in earthquake engineering analysis          下载免费PDF全文

Andrew Hardyniec  Finley Charney 《地震工程与结构动力学》2015,44(15):2695-2715

The growing emphasis of considering the behavior of structures at extreme performance states, such as collapse, has necessitated the characterization of the effects of varying attributes of the structural model. One source of variability that has not previously been considered is variability in the mathematical model. This study investigated the effects of changing the geometric nonlinearity approach and damping model on a four‐story buckling restrained braced frame, a four‐story steel moment resisting frame, and an eight‐story steel moment resisting frame. The variations in behavior are quantified using the maximum interstory drift ratio as the performance metric and qualified by comparing the relative displaced shapes and component response histories at the collapse performance state. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

距离法定量评价储层地质模型的不确定性     

戴危艳  李少华  刘诗宇 《地质与资源》2015,24(5):478-482

针对目前常用的储层地质模型不确定性评价方法存在的主要问题,提出了先用距离函数计算模型之间的差异,再以差异的大小来判断不确定性大小的方法.以WZ油田西区为例,采用相控物性参数建模技术,利用顺序高斯模拟方法建立渗透率的三维模型.对各种度量差异的距离函数进行对比研究和分析,结果显示曼哈顿距离函数和欧氏距离函数能较好地刻画模型之间的差异.选用欧氏距离函数计算模型之间的差异,其原理是先计算每两个模型之间相对应的每一网格节点的渗透率值差的平方和,然后取平方根,得到一个表征各模型之间差异的矩阵.根据该矩阵可得到各个模型之间的差异程度,差异越大,不确定性就越大.最后通过对比模型过井剖面图分析结果与距离矩阵分析结果,说明了本方法的正确性,结果显示该方法能有效评价随机模拟生成的储层地质模型的不确定性.  相似文献