A review of the assessments of the major fisheries resources in South Africa     

CL de Moor  SJ Johnston  A Brandão  RA Rademeyer  JP Glazer  LB Furman 《African Journal of Marine Science》2015,37(3):285-311

The waters off South Africa's coastline boast a rich mix of commercially fished species. Quantitative assessments of these marine resources have developed from simple methods first applied in the 1970s, to models that encompass a wide range of methodologies. The more valuable resources have undergone regular assessments in recent decades, with frequencies closely related to the management approach employed for each fishery. Many of these assessments form the operating models used to simulation-test candidate management procedures. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the assessments of 11 of the most important fisheries resources in South Africa. Some assessments use simple biomass dynamics models, whereas others are a hybrid of age- and length-based models, each designed to model the specific characteristics of the resource and fishery concerned. Many of the assessments have been disaggregated by species/stock and/or area as related multispecies/stock/ distribution hypotheses have arisen. This paper explores the similarities and differences in the data available and the methods applied. The review indicates that, whereas the status of three of these resources cannot be estimated reliably at present, the status of six resources is considered to be reasonable to good, whereas that of abalone Haliotis midae and West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii remains poor.  相似文献   

Potential impact of future climate change on crop yield in northeastern China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mengzi Zhou  Huijun Wang 《大气科学进展》2015,32(7):889-897

We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China(NEC) by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario(RCP4.5), the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010–39(period 1), 2040–69(period 2), and 2070–99(period 3)] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period(1976–2005) were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase(but with great uncertainty) against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers.  相似文献   

电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法测定矿石中7种元素的结果不确定度评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘伟 《福建地质》2010,29(2):171-178

对电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法测定矿石中铜、铅、锌、钾、钠、钛、钒7种元素的整个实验过程可能引入的各种不确定度来源进行分析,并对各种不确定度分量进行量化计算,最后得出合成标准不确定度和扩展不确定度,给出测试结果。  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯网络的地下水环境系统决策管理研究          下载免费PDF全文

卢文喜  罗建男  龚磊  辛欣 《地学前缘》2010,17(6):247-254

应用贝叶斯网络解决地下水环境管理中具有不确定性的多目标决策问题,通过对决策变量氮肥施用量以及灌溉模式的调控,减少水中的硝酸盐含量,达到既能有效改善水环境又不至使农民经济利益受到损害的目标。通过分析具体的地下水环境管理系统中变量间的相互关系,构建描述变量间不确定性关系的贝叶斯网络模型,其中包括表示其依赖关系的有向无环图和表示其具体概率依赖程度的条件概率表。并在多个水环境管理目标均达到最优的前提下进行概率推理,得到决策变量氮肥施用量以及灌溉模式取不同值时目标变量的概率分布情况。最终确定出能使所有目标均达到最优的合理的水环境管理决策:(1)使用喷灌,将氮肥施用量控制在0.01~0.03 kg/m2;(2)使用漫灌,将氮肥施用量控制在0.01~0.02 kg/m2。  相似文献   

称重法配制标准溶液研究及其不确定度评估   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

马新荣  王蕾  温宏利  巩爱华 《岩矿测试》2010,29(6):733-738

在标准溶液配制及稀释的过程中放弃了传统的定量移液管,采用精密电子天平作为定量工具。精密电子天平准确度高,重复性好,不需考虑溶液黏度、管口流速等因素对不确定度的影响,而且明显地降低了在标准溶液逐级稀释过程中由于读数、操作等原因产生的误差,可实现大比例稀释,操作简便。根据《化学分析中不确定度的评估指南》(CNAL/AG07:2002)评定了此方法与传统溶液配制方法的不确定度。利用电感耦合等离子体原子发射光谱法(ICP-AES)验证了其准确性和线性,均获得满意结果。本法适用于ICP-AES法测定样品中的主元素(含量在x%~xx%)时的标准溶液配制,也可应用于原子荧光光谱、原子吸收光谱等仪器系列标准溶液的配制。  相似文献   

铜精粉中铜的测量不确定度评定     

王明军  何雪梅  焦万里  梁征 《化工矿产地质》2010,32(4):241-244

测量不确定度作为当今矿石主要的评定方式,其评定是表征并赋予测量结果的分散性,为最终的测量结果附带参数,以此来客观衡量测量量的分散性。根据数值的特点分为两个度量,符合统计规律的数值,称为A类不确定度;不符合统计规律的数值称为B类不确定度。将不确定度的评定方法运用到铜精粉中铜含量的测定中,最终得出样品铜精粉中19.94%～20.34%的铜含量,同时对铜精粉中铜的测量实验及实验结果不确定度的评定进行了系统的研究,并将整个实验及结果不确定度的计算过程简述,这样不仅达到了测量的目的,还能对不确定度进一步认识,也给冶炼工业的发展提供了可参考的研究方法。  相似文献   

化学测量中不确定度的计算方法——不确定度连续传递模型计算示例     

朱家平  刘建坤  王亚平  谢恩平 《地质通报》2010,29(10):1721-1725

不确定度连续传递模型的基本步骤为：①对标准曲线的各点进行不确定度评定,给出各点的标准不确定度;②对标准曲线各点的响应值进行多次测定,得出其平均值和标准不确定度;③以这2个标准不确定度为权重进行拟合,得出双误差拟合方程和标准不确定度的计算公式;④计算标准曲线各点与其校准点的差值,并将其转换成标准不确定度;⑤将以上4项按不确定度传播规律计算总不确定度。实际测量时, ①、②、④步用插值法算得。通过一个实例比较了不同拟合方法间结果的差别,说明了运用X、Y的相对误差作为权重的直线拟和,再加上“不确定度连续传递模型”算得的测量不确定度更为合理。  相似文献   

暴雨山洪灾害预警方法研究进展     

任智慧  桑燕芳  杨默远  王月玲  尚莉 《地理科学进展》2023,42(1):185-196

暴雨山洪灾害预警是中小流域山洪灾害防控体系的薄弱环节,也是决定山洪灾害防控成败的关键。论文围绕山洪灾害预警的核心问题,从中国山洪灾害区域差异特征、山洪灾害预警技术方法、山洪灾害概率预警现状3个方面进行了综述。中国山洪灾害分布存在明显的时空差异,因此有必要根据山洪灾害的区域差异发展有针对性的预警方法。以临界雨量为指标的雨量预警是目前中国中小流域暴雨山洪灾害预警的主要技术手段,但常规方法仅给出一个(组)确定的临界雨量阈值,导致预警结果存在突出的不确定性问题。概率预警可以定量评估诸多不确定性,给出山洪灾害概率预警结果,因此具备很好的理论优势与潜在应用价值。论文展望了山洪灾害概率预警未来的研究重点与方向：(1)充分挖掘暴雨洪水样本信息,开展山洪灾害概率预警基础方法与技术集成研究;(2)加强非平稳性条件下的临界雨量阈值估算与山洪灾害概率预警研究;(3)综合考虑预警阈值发生概率及其致灾概率,优化“多级预警、多级响应”技术方法,推进山洪灾害综合预警业务系统建设与应用。  相似文献   

不确定度在多波束测深数据质量评估中的应用     

张志伟  暴景阳  肖付民  孙新轩  王少帅 《海洋测绘》2014,34(5):59-61

在海道测量中,由于无法对测量数据进行多余和重复观测,因而不能精确测定各种误差,同时也几乎没有测量成果质量的控制指标,这正是多波束测深数据质量评估所面临的现实且急需解决的难题。基于国际海道测量规范S-44(5th)的要求,研究了不确定度在多波束数测深数据质量评估中的应用。通过实例分析可知,测量结果的可用性在很大程度上取决于其不确定度的大小,不确定度越小,说明测量结果质量越高,越具有可靠性。因此,将不确定度充分合理地应用于多波束测深数据处理和评估是一种最为理想的途径。  相似文献   

Robustness of Precipitation Projections in China:Comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3 Models          下载免费PDF全文

CHEN Huo-Po  SUN Jian-Qi 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(1)

Three sources of uncertainty in model projections of precipitation change in China for the 21st century were separated and quantified: internal variability,inter-model variability,and scenario uncertainty.Simulations from models involved in the third phase and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3 and CMIP5) were compared to identify improvements in the robustness of projections from the latest generation of models.No significant differences were found between CMIP3 and CMIP5 in terms of future precipitation projections over China,with the two datasets both showing future increases.The uncertainty can be attributed firstly to internal variability,and then to both inter-model and internal variability.Quantification analysis revealed that the uncertainty in CMIP5 models has increased by about 10%–60% with respect to CMIP3,despite significant improvements in the latest generation of models.The increase is mainly due to the increase of internal variability in the initial decades,and then mainly due to the increase of inter-model variability thereafter,especially by the end of this century.The change in scenario uncertainty shows no major role,but makes a negative contribution to begin with,and then an increase later.  相似文献