Dynamical downscaling of future sea level change in the western North Pacific using ROMS     

Zhao-Jun?LiuEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Shoshiro?Minobe  Yoshi?N.?Sasaki  Mio?Terada 《Journal of Oceanography》2016,72(6):905-922

The future regional sea level (RSL) rise in the western North Pacific is investigated by dynamical downscaling with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with an eddy-permitting resolution based on three global climate models—MIROC-ESM, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, and GFDL-CM3—under the highest greenhouse-gas emission scenario. The historical run is forced by the air-sea fluxes calculated from Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment version 2 (COREv2) data. Three future runs—ROMS-MIROC, ROMS-CSIRO, and ROMS-GFDL—are forced with an atmospheric field constructed by adding the difference between the climate model parameters for the twenty-first and twentieth century to fields in the historical run. In all downscaling, the RSL rise along the eastern coast of Japan is generally half or less of the RSL rise maxima off the eastern coast. The projected regional (total) sea level rises along the Honshu coast during 2081–2100 relative to 1981–2000 are 19–25 (98–104), 6–15 (71–80), and 8–14 (80–86) cm in ROMS-MIROC, ROMS-CSIRO, and ROMS-GFDL, respectively. The discrepancies of the RSL rise along the Honshu coast between the climate models and downscaling are less than 10 cm. The RSL changes in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region in all downscaling simulations are related to the changes of KE (northward shift or intensification) with climate change.  相似文献   

Soil-water dynamics and tree water uptake in the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico (USA): a stable isotope study     

Casey?Gierke  B.?Talon?NewtonEmail author  Fred?M.?Phillips 《Hydrogeology Journal》2016,24(4):805-818

In the southwestern United States, precipitation in the high mountains is a primary source of groundwater recharge. Precipitation patterns, soil properties and vegetation largely control the rate and timing of groundwater recharge. The interactions between climate, soil and mountain vegetation thus have important implications for the groundwater supply. This study took place in the Sacramento Mountains, which is the recharge area for multiple regional aquifers in southern New Mexico. The stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen were used to determine whether infiltration of precipitation is homogeneously distributed in the soil or whether it is partitioned among soil-water ‘compartments’, from which trees extract water for transpiration as a function of the season. The results indicate that “immobile” or “slow” soil water, which is derived primarily from snowmelt, infiltrates soils in a relatively uniform fashion, filling small pores in the shallow soils. “Mobile” or “fast” soil water, which is mostly associated with summer thunderstorms, infiltrates very quickly through macropores and along preferential flow paths, evading evaporative loss. It was found that throughout the entire year, trees principally use immobile water derived from snowmelt mixed to differing degrees with seasonally available mobile-water sources. The replenishment of these different water pools in soils appears to depend on initial soil-water content, the manner in which the water was introduced to the soil (snowmelt versus intense thunderstorms), and the seasonal variability of the precipitation and evapotranspiration. These results have important implications for the effect of climate change on recharge mechanisms in the Sacramento Mountains.  相似文献   

Estuarine Habitat and Demographic Factors Affect Juvenile Chinook (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</Emphasis>) Growth Variability in a Large Freshwater Tidal Estuary     

Pascale?A.?L.?GoertlerEmail author  Charles?A.?Simenstad  Daniel?L.?Bottom  Susan?Hinton  Lia?Stamatiou 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(2):542-559

Estuarine rearing has been shown to enhance within watershed biocomplexity and support growth and survival for juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus sp.). However, less is known about how growth varies across different types of wetland habitats and what explains this variability in growth. We focused on the estuarine habitat use of Columbia River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), which are listed under the Endangered Species Act. We employed a generalized linear model (GLM) to test three hypotheses: (1) juvenile Chinook growth was best explained by temporal factors, (2) habitat, or (3) demographic characteristics, such as stock of origin. This study examined estuarine growth rate, incorporating otolith microstructure, individual assignment to stock of origin, GIS habitat mapping, and diet composition along ~130 km of the upper Columbia River estuary. Juvenile Chinook grew on average 0.23 mm/day in the freshwater tidal estuary. When compared to other studies in the basin our growth estimates from the freshwater tidal estuary were similar to estimates in the brackish estuary, but ~4 times slower than those in the plume and upstream reservoirs. However, previous survival studies elucidated a possible tradeoff between growth and survival in the Columbia River basin. Our GLM analysis found that variation in growth was best explained by habitat and an interaction between fork length and month of capture. Juvenile Chinook salmon captured in backwater channel habitats and later in the summer (mid-summer and late summer/fall subyearlings) grew faster than salmon from other habitats and time periods. These findings present a unique example of the complexity of understanding the influences of the many processes that generate variation in growth rate for juvenile anadromous fish inhabiting estuaries.  相似文献   

Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?     

Martina?S?tteleEmail author  Michael?Krautblatter  Michael?Bründl  Daniel?Straub 《Landslides》2016,13(4):737-750

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.  相似文献   

Stability analysis of an ancient landslide considering shear strength reduction behavior of slip zone soil     

Xiao-ping?ChenEmail author  Hong-hu?ZhuEmail author  Jing-wu?Huang  Dong?Liu 《Landslides》2016,13(1):173-181

In this paper, the stability of an ancient landslide during the first impounding of a nearby reservoir is investigated through the analyses of the shear strength reduction behavior of slip zone soil. In view of the experimental observations, an empirical strain-dependent soil model is established and is then incorporated in finite element analyses. The numerical analysis results show that the failing sections progressively develop due to the soil strength declines from peak toward residual, and the shear zone propagates within the front slope. It is demonstrated in the numerical results that the toe weighting measure has a significant effect on restraining the shear displacements of the soils and preventing the progressive failure of the landslide. The field observations further confirmed the stability condition of the reinforced landslide.  相似文献   

Contemporary Deposition and Long-Term Accumulation of Sediment and Nutrients by Tidal Freshwater Forested Wetlands Impacted by Sea Level Rise   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Gregory?B.?NoeEmail author  Cliff?R.?Hupp  Christopher?E.?Bernhardt  Ken?W.?Krauss 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(4):1006-1019

Contemporary deposition (artificial marker horizon, 3.5 years) and long-term accumulation rates (²¹⁰Pb profiles, ~150 years) of sediment and associated carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) were measured in wetlands along the tidal Savannah and Waccamaw rivers in the southeastern USA. Four sites along each river spanned an upstream-to-downstream salinification gradient, from upriver tidal freshwater forested wetland (TFFW), through moderately and highly salt-impacted forested wetlands, to oligohaline marsh downriver. Contemporary deposition rates (sediment, C, N, and P) were greatest in oligohaline marsh and lowest in TFFW along both rivers. Greater rates of deposition in oligohaline and salt-stressed forested wetlands were associated with a shift to greater clay and metal content that is likely associated with a change from low availability of watershed-derived sediment to TFFW and to greater availability of a coastal sediment source to oligohaline wetlands. Long-term accumulation rates along the Waccamaw River had the opposite spatial pattern compared to contemporary deposition, with greater rates in TFFW that declined to oligohaline marsh. Long-term sediment and elemental mass accumulation rates also were 3–9× lower than contemporary deposition rates. In comparison to other studies, sediment and associated nutrient accumulation in TFFW are lower than downriver/estuarine freshwater, oligohaline, and salt marshes, suggesting a reduced capacity for surface sedimentation (short-term) as well as shallow soil processes (long-term sedimentation) to offset sea level rise in TFFW. Nonetheless, their potentially large spatial extent suggests that TFFW have a large impact on the transport and fate of sediment and nutrients in tidal rivers and estuaries.  相似文献   

Iron Reduction Along an Inundation Gradient in a Tidal Sedge (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyperus malaccensis</Emphasis>) Marsh: the Rates,Pathways, and Contributions to Anaerobic Organic Matter Mineralization     

Min?Luo  Cong-Sheng?ZengEmail author  Chuan?Tong  Jia-Fang?Huang  Kai?Chen  Feng-Qin?Liu 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(6):1679-1693

Incubation experiments were adopted to characterize the rates and pathways of iron reduction and the contributions to anaerobic organic matter mineralization in the upper 0–5 cm of sediments along a landscape-scale inundation gradient in tidal marsh sediments in the Min River Estuary, Southeast China. Similar sediment characteristics, single-species vegetation, varied biomass and bioturbation, distinct porewater pH, redox potential, and electrical conductivity values have resulted in a unique ecogeochemical zonation along the inundation gradient. Decreases in solid-phase Fe(III) and increases in nonsulfidic Fe(II) and iron sulfide were observed in a seaward direction. Porewater Fe²⁺ was only detected in the upland area. High rates of iron reduction were observed in incubation jars, with significant accumulations of nonsulfidic Fe(II), moderate accumulations of iron sulfides, and negligible accumulations of porewater Fe²⁺. Most of the iron reduction was microbially mediated rather than coupled to reduced sulfides. Microbial iron reduction accounted for 20–89 % of the anaerobic organic matter mineralization along the inundation gradient. The rate and dominance of microbial iron reduction generally decreased in a seaward direction. The contributions of microbial iron reduction to anaerobic organic matter mineralization depended on the concentrations of bioavailable Fe(III), the spatial distribution of which was significantly related to tidal inundation. Our results clearly showed that microbial iron reduction in the upper sediments along the gradient is highly dependent on spatial scales controlled primarily by tidal inundation.  相似文献   

Depth classification of underwater targets based on complex acoustic intensity of normal modes     

Guang?Yang  Jingwei?YinEmail author  Yun?Yu  Zhenhua?Shi 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2016,15(2):241-246

In order to solve the problem of depth classification of the underwater target in a very low frequency acoustic field, the active component of cross spectra of particle pressure and horizontal velocity (ACCSPPHV) is adopted to distinguish the surface vessel and the underwater target. According to the effective depth of a Pekeris waveguide, the placing depth forecasting equations of passive vertical double vector hydrophones are proposed. Numerical examples show that when the sum of depths of two hydrophones is the effective depth, the sign distribution of ACCSPPHV has nothing to do with horizontal distance; in addition, the sum of the first critical surface and the second critical surface is equal to the effective depth. By setting the first critical surface less than the difference between the effective water depth and the actual water depth, that is, the second critical surface is greater than the actual depth, the three positive and negative regions of the whole ocean volume are equivalent to two positive and negative regions and therefore the depth classification of the underwater target is obtained. Besides, when the 20 m water depth is taken as the first critical surface in the simulation of underwater targets (40 Hz, 50 Hz, and 60 Hz respectively), the effectiveness of the algorithm and the correctness of relevant conclusions are verified, and the analysis of the corresponding forecasting performance is conducted.  相似文献   

Tropical Atlantic climate response to different freshwater input in high latitudes with an ocean-only general circulation model     

Guang?Men  Xiuquan?WanEmail author  Zedong?Liu 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2016,15(5):751-757

Tropical Atlantic climate change is relevant to the variation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) through different physical processes. Previous coupled climate model simulation suggested a dipole-like SST structure cooling over the North Atlantic and warming over the South Tropical Atlantic in response to the slowdown of the AMOC. Using an ocean-only global ocean model here, an attempt was made to separate the total influence of various AMOC change scenarios into an oceanic-induced component and an atmospheric-induced component. In contrast with previous freshwater-hosing experiments with coupled climate models, the ocean-only modeling presented here shows a surface warming in the whole tropical Atlantic region and the oceanic-induced processes may play an important role in the SST change in the equatorial south Atlantic. Our result shows that the warming is partly governed by oceanic process through the mechanism of oceanic gateway change, which operates in the regime where freshwater forcing is strong, exceeding 0.3 Sv. Strong AMOC change is required for the gateway mechanism to work in our model because only when the AMOC is sufficiently weak, the North Brazil Undercurrent can flow equatorward, carrying warm and salty north Atlantic subtropical gyre water into the equatorial zone. This threshold is likely to be model-dependent. An improved understanding of these issues may have help with abrupt climate change prediction later.  相似文献   

Mechanisms of partly flooded loose sand deposits     

Gerd?GudehusEmail author 《Acta Geotechnica》2016,11(3):505-517

Partly flooded loose sand deposits are left back from lignite mining, particularly in east Germany. After flooding, gas inclusions in macropores enhance the pore pressure increase by total stress cycles without drainage, and this can cause the transition into a kind of suspension. Thus, natural and technical changes of surface loads triggered flow slides in chain reactions of sometimes catastrophic extent. Such collapsible deposits were and are stabilized by blast-induced liquefaction and densification. Successive collapse fronts in flooded grain skeletons are seismogeneous, and this appears as wavering in the near-field and leads to power-law spectra in the far-field. Apart from this evidence of mild fractality, the wild fractality of chain reactions eludes mathematical treatment. Therefore, uncommon methods of geotechnical design, operations and monitoring are required.  相似文献