基于TIGGE资料的西太平洋热带气旋多模式集成预报方法比较   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

张涵斌  智协飞  王亚男  陈静  张雷  李靖 《气象》2015,41(9):1058-1067

基于TIGGE资料中CMA、ECMWF、JMA和NCEP四中心2010、2011和2012年3年的资料,采用集合平均（EMN）、加权集合平均（WEMN）、消除偏差集合平均（BREM）和加权消除偏差集合平均（即超级集合,SUP）四种方法,对西太平洋地区热带气旋路径与中心气压进行时效为24、48、72、96和120 h的多模式集成预报,评估了不同单中心预报结果,并分析了不同多模式集成预报方法的特点,对比了不同多模式集成方法的效果。结果表明,对于热带气旋路径和中心气压预报,各中心预报技巧不同,其中3年的CMA预报效果均较差,2010、2011年的ECMWF预报和2012年的NCEP预报效果最优;总体上几种多模式集成方法在120 h预报时效内均优于单模式预报,其中EMN作为一种最简单的集成预报方法,具有一定的局限性,而WEMN由于给不同单模式预报赋予了权重,因此相对于EMN能够得到更好的多模式集成预报结果;BREM方案由于消除了模式预报中的系统性偏差,因此集成预报效果也优于EMN;由于去除了模式预报偏差,同时给不同模式赋予了权重,SUP方案得到的集成预报效果最优。  相似文献   

Study on multi-scale blending initial condition perturbations for a regional ensemble prediction system   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Hanbin Zhang  Jing Chen  Xiefei Zhi  Yi Wang  Yanan Wang 《大气科学进展》2015,32(8):1143-1155

An initial conditions (ICs) perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system (REPS). Three issues were identified and investigated: (2) the impacts of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill of the REPS; (3) the scale characteristic of the IC perturbations of the REPS; and (4) whether the REPS's skill could be improved by adding large-scale information to the IC perturbations. Numerical experiments were conducted to reveal the impact of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill. The scales of IC perturbations from the REPS and an operational global ensemble prediction system (GEPS) were analyzed. A "multi-scale blending" (MSB) IC perturbation scheme was developed, and the main findings can be summarized as follows: The growth rates of the ensemble spread of the REPS are sensitive to the scale of the IC perturbations; the ensemble forecast skills can benefit from large-scale perturbations; the global ensemble IC perturbations exhibit more power at larger scales, while the regional ensemble IC perturbations contain more power at smaller scales; the MSB method can generate IC perturbations by combining the small-scale component from the REPS and the large-scale component from the GEPS; the energy norm growth of the MSB-generated perturbations can be appropriate at all forecast lead times; and the MSB-based REPS shows higher skill than the original system, as determined by ensemble forecast verification.  相似文献   

泥河湾盆地籍箕滩剖面记录的6400年以来环境变化与人类活动影响     

胡亚楠  许清海  张生瑞  穆会双  李阳  李曼玥 《第四纪研究》2015,35(4)

本文对泥河湾盆地籍箕滩剖面地表下65～ 75cm、140～150cm、190～ 200cm和300～310cm处的4块泥质样品进行了AMS14C测年,校正后的年代分别为2117cal.a B.P.、3081cal.a B.P.、5481cal.aB.P.和6420cal.a B.P.,表明籍箕滩剖面305cm以上地层形成于全新世中晚期.籍箕滩剖面的孢粉、炭屑和磁化率分析,揭示了研究区中全新世以来的植被演替、气候变化和人类活动的影响.6400～ 5800cal.a B.P.,气候总体温暖湿润,籍箕滩南面的浅山地带可能有森林生长,孢粉百分比和炭屑含量的变化表明,该阶段植被对气候变化和人类活动影响非常敏感.6000cal.a B.P.前人类活动使籍箕滩剖面南面浅山地带的森林遭到一定破坏;6000～5800cal.a B.P.,籍箕滩周边的人类活动可能有所减弱或迁移他处,籍箕滩剖面南面浅山地带的森林得到一定恢复;5500 cal.a B.P.左右的降温事件和4000 cal.a B.P.左右的干旱事件以及人类活动,使得泥河湾盆地的森林植被破坏后再也没有恢复到之前的景观,草原植被迅速发展;4000～2000cal.a B.P.,气候以冷干为主,区域内森林植被几近消失,只在水分条件较好的地方有小片阔叶灌丛林生长,植被类型表现为草原或干草原.泥河湾盆地中晚全新世以来的气候变化与其他地方的对比表明,东亚季风的衰退具同步性.  相似文献   

Genome-wide evolution of MAPKs family and their expression in response to bacterial infection in seahorse Hippocampus erectus     

Wang  Kai  Wang  Xin  Zou  Qiang  Jiang  Han  Zhang  Rongrong  Tian  Yanan  Zhang  Lele  Lin  Qiang 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2021,39(6):2309-2321

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - Seahorses have evolved many unique biological traits, including a male brood pouch, the absence of caudal and pelvic fins, and the lack of spleen and...  相似文献   

利用混合光谱分解与SVM估算不透水面覆盖率   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

程熙  沈占锋  骆剑承  朱长明  周亚男  胡晓东 《遥感学报》2011,15(6):1235-1247

对比了线性混合光谱分解模型(SMA)与支持向量机(SVM)在TM影像上估算不透水面覆盖率(ISP)的精度,通过SVM模型拟合TM像元光谱特征与样本ISP间的关联而获得对未知像元ISP的估算能力。对于天津市主城区的TM影像,选择学校区、工矿区和住宅区的高分辨率影像分类结果作为训练样本(7020个)和验证样本(1500个),SVM模型的ISP估算均方差(15.4%)优于SMA估算结果(19.4%);在增加缨帽变化“绿度分量”及混合光谱分解“高反射率分量”作为SVM特征变量后,ISP估算精度提高为12%。研究结果表明：SVM模型能够拟合各像元光谱组分间非线性关系且具有较好小样本泛化的性能,适用于地面样本较少的大区域ISP制图;增加与ISP相关性大的光谱特征向量作为SVM输入能提供更多的区域地物空间分布信息,能够调整无样本的地表类型的ISP估算值,提高区域ISP估算的整体精度。  相似文献   

1961-2017年京津冀地区寒潮活动特征     

李红英  林纾  王云鹏  黄鹏程  于亚楠 《干旱气象》2022,40(1):41-48

基于1961—2017年京津冀地区126个气象观测站逐日最低气温和降水资料,分析该区域寒潮发生频次时空变化特征,在此基础上通过定义的干湿判别指标分析区域性寒潮的干湿特征。结果表明:(1)京津冀地区单站寒潮年平均发生频次空间分布呈西北多东南少,86%的站点寒潮年发生频次呈减少趋势。(2)1961—2017年寒潮累计发生站次呈显著减少趋势(P<0.001),气候倾向率为-5.7站次·a^(-1),且在1983年发生突变。1961—1971年寒潮累计发生站次出现峰值,从1972年开始锐减,2007—2017年寒潮平均发生站次为历史最少。(3)1961—2017年区域性寒潮发生频次年际变化总体呈递减趋势,气候倾向率为-0.282次·(10 a)^(-1),1960年代冬季区域性寒潮发生频次最多,1970年代秋季和春季最多,2000年代冬季和春季为次高峰期,2011—2017年3个季节最少。区域性寒潮发生频次季节分布中以秋季出现最多、其次是冬季、春季最少;10月、11月寒潮最为活跃。(4)京津冀地区区域性寒潮过程干过程发生频次最多,2011—2017年区域性寒潮过程干湿特征趋向于干过程和湿过程两极化分布。  相似文献   

Research on Corrosion Effect of Sulfate Ions on Concrete Under Wetting-Drying Cycle     

WANG Xiuhai  TIAN Zhuangcai  ZHANG Yanan  SU Xiuting  LIU Hongjun  LIU Tao 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2022,21(1):124-130

Saline soil is widely distributed in the marine sediments along the coast of the world and the arid-semi-arid areas of the Middle East and Iraq,and calcium sulfate erosion has become one of the important factors affecting the durability of concrete in this area.In order to clarify the mechanism of sulfate ion damage to concrete,this paper mainly takes saline soil with high sulfate content in coastal area as well as arid-semi-arid area as the research object,and uses indoor geotechnical test,field test and numerical simulation to study the influence of different dry-wet cycle times on the unconfined compressive strength of concrete test blocks,and puts forward the relationship between the erosion arrival depth and time of sulfate ion in concrete,so as to predict the long-term erosion depth by using the erosion depth of sulfate ion in concrete in short time.The results show that the shorter the erosion time when the erosion reaches a certain depth,and the larger the erosion reaches when the erosion time is the same,the faster the erosion reaches the depth with the increase of erosion time.Compared with rectangular section concrete,circular section concrete penetrates faster.The results of this study can provide a reference for the durability design of concrete in saline soil sites containing sulfate.  相似文献   

Mercury isotope constraints on the genesis of late Mesozoic Sb deposits in South China     

Changzhou DENG  Jiawei ZHANG  Ruizhong HU  Kai LUO  Yanan ZHU  Runsheng YIN 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2022,65(2):269-281

The late Mesozoic antimony(Sb)mineralization belt in South China hosts a large portion of the world’s Sb reserves.However,the source and mineralization processes of these Sb deposits remain controversial.Here,we measured mercury(Hg)concentrations and isotopic compositions of stibnite in the Banpo Sb-only and Woxi Sbpolymetallic ore deposits,as well as associated rocks in the Yangtze Block in order to constrain the metal sources and ore formation processes in the South China Sb mineralization belt.Stibnite samples from both deposits exhibit significant enrichment in Hg(4.23–50.6 ppm)and have higher δ²⁰²Hg values(?0.47‰to 2.03‰)than the studied Precambrian basement rocks(?1.42‰to 0.59‰),Paleozoic sedimentary rocks(?2.40‰to?0.32‰),and other natural Hg reserves(e.g.,marine and continental systems).This indicates that significant mass-dependent fractionation of Hg isotopes occurred during hydrothermal processes.Negative to slightly positive Δ¹⁹⁹Hg values of?0.17‰to 0.02‰were obtained for stibnite from the studied deposits,similar to values for the Precambrian basement rocks,but different from those of the Paleozoic sedimentary rocks and data previously reported for mantle materials.This suggests that Precambrian basement rocks were the source of Hg and associated metals.Our data and the tectonic evolution of South China indicate that late Mesozoic asthenospheric upwelling,in response to the Paleo-Pacific oceanic slab foundering,generated heat that drove the circulation of fluids in the basement and crustal basinal rocks.These fluids leached Sb,Hg,and other metals from the Precambrian basement rocks and formed the world-class Sb mineralization belt in South China.  相似文献   

伊舒断陷盆地(伊通段)地热资源储量计算     

孙艳玲  朱时佳  王雅男  朱彤 《吉林地质》2021,40(3):48-53

伊舒断陷盆地(伊通段)拥有丰富的地热资源,近年来成为吉林省新能源研发的重点对象.根据本区水文地质特征、构造特征及物源补给条件,将工作区划分为两个地热田及一个空白区,两个地热田分别为马鞍山地热田、三家子地热田.查明两个地热田地热资源储量,对伊通地热资源的开发利用规划具有指导性意义.本文主要通过热储法计算资源储量,得出本区地热资源总储量为3.60×1015 kJ.储量较为丰富,可用于地热资源开发利用.  相似文献   

利用“修改型”植被盖度反演模型提取辽西北沙化土地信息   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

张亚男  王旭  甄莹 《测绘通报》2018,(5):93-96

以辽西北为研究区域,选取2017年6月Landsat-8 OLI影像作为基本数据源,引入面向对象多尺度分割技术,利用水体指数、居民地指数、植被指数、形状指数相结合的二值逻辑运算方法提取出沙化土地信息。基于二阶抽样与遥感影像谱间结构相结合,构建"修改型"植被盖度反演模型,从而实现沙化土地信息的分等定级提取。研究结果表明:该方法可以排除提取地物时的干扰信息,实现沙化土地信息的自动、准确提取。  相似文献