The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Stéphane?HallegatteEmail author  Fanny?Henriet  Jan?Corfee-Morlot 《Climatic change》2011,104(1):51-87

Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change and climate extremes in part because they concentrate many activities, people and wealth in limited areas. As a result they represent an important scale for assessment and understanding of climate change impacts. This paper provides a conceptual and methodological framework for urban economic impact assessment of climate change. The focus of the paper is on model-based analysis of future scenarios, including a framing of uncertainty for these projections, as one valuable input into the decision-making process. The paper highlights the main assessment difficulties, methods and tools, and selected examples across these areas. A number of challenges are unique to climate change impact assessment and others are unique to the problem of working at local scales. The paper also identifies the need for additional research, including the need for more integrated and systemic approaches to address climate change as a part of the urban development challenge as well as the need to assess the economic impacts of climate change and response policy at local scale.  相似文献   

Variability of Sub-Canopy Flow,Temperature, and Horizontal Advection in Moderately Complex Terrain   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Christoph?K.?ThomasEmail author 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2011,139(1):61-81

We examine the space–time structure of the wind and temperature fields, as well as that of the resulting spatial temperature gradients and horizontal advection of sensible heat, in the sub-canopy of a forest with a dense overstorey in moderately complex terrain. Data were collected from a sensor network consisting of ten stations and subject to orthogonal decomposition using the multiresolution basis set and stochastic analyses including two-point correlations, dimensional structure functions, and various other bulk measures for space and time variability. Despite some similarities, fundamental differences were found in the space–time structure of the motions dominating the variability of the sub-canopy wind and temperature fields. The dominating motions occupy similar spatial, but different temporal, scales. A conceptual space–time diagram was constructed based on the stochastic analysis that includes the important end members of the spatial and temporal scales of the observed motions of both variables. Short-lived and small-scale motions govern the variability of the wind, while the diurnal temperature oscillation driven by the surface radiative transfer is the main determinant of the variability in the temperature signal, which occupies much larger time scales. This scale mismatch renders Taylor’s hypothesis for sub-canopy flow invalid and aggravates the computation of meaningful estimates of horizontal advective fluxes without dense spatial information. It may further explain the ambiguous and inconclusive results reported in numerous energy and mass balance and advection studies evaluating the hypothesis that accounting for budget components other than the change in storage term and the vertical turbulent flux improves the budget closure when turbulent diffusion is suppressed in plant canopies. Estimates of spatial temperature gradients and advective fluxes were sensitive to the network geometry and the spatial interpolation method. The assumption of linear spatial temperature gradients was not supported by the results, and leads to increased spatial and temporal variability of inferred spatial gradients and advection estimates. A method is proposed to estimate the appropriate minimum network size of wind and temperature sensors suitable for an evaluation of energy and mass balances by reducing spatial and temporal variability of the spatially sampled signals, which was estimated to be on the order of 200 m at the study site.  相似文献   

Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period     

Claire Granier  Bertrand Bessagnet  Tami Bond  Ariela D��Angiola  Hugo Denier van der Gon  Gregory J. Frost  Angelika Heil  Johannes W. Kaiser  Stefan Kinne  Zbigniew Klimont  Silvia Kloster  Jean-Fran?ois Lamarque  Catherine Liousse  Toshihiko Masui  Frederik Meleux  Aude Mieville  Toshimasa Ohara  Jean-Christophe Raut  Keywan Riahi  Martin G. Schultz  Steven J. Smith  Allison Thompson  John van Aardenne  Guido R. van der Werf  Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2011,109(1-2):163-190

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.  相似文献   

Physical and economic bias in climate change research: a scientometric study of IPCC Third Assessment Report     

Andreas Bjurstr?m  Merritt Polk 《Climatic change》2011,108(1-2):1-22

This study demonstrates that IPCC Third Assessment Report is strongly dominated by Natural sciences, especially the Earth sciences. The Social sciences are dominated by Economics. The IPCC assessment also results in the separation of the Earth, Biological and Social sciences. The integration that occurs is mainly between closely related scientific fields. The research community consequently imposes a physical and economic bias and a separation of scientific fields that the IPCC reproduces in the policy sphere. It is argued that this physical and economic bias distorts a comprehensive understanding of climate change and that the weak integration of scientific fields hinders climate change from being fully addressed as an integral environmental and social problem. If climate change is to be understood, evaluated and responded to in its fullness, the IPCC must broaden its knowledge base and challenge the anthropocentric worldview that places humans outside of nature.  相似文献   

Phytomass carbon pool of trees and forests in India     

Meenakshi?KaulEmail author  G.?M.?J.?Mohren  V.?K.?Dadhwal 《Climatic change》2011,105(1-2):243-262

The study reports estimates of above ground phytomass carbon pools in Indian forests for 1992 and 2002 using two different methodologies. The first estimate was derived from remote sensing based forest area and crown density estimates, and growing stock data for 1992 and 2002 and the estimated pool size was in the range 2,626–3,071 Tg C (41 to 48 Mg C ha^???1) and 2,660–3,180 Tg C (39 to 47 Mg C ha^???1) for 1992 and 2002, respectively. The second methodology followed IPCC 2006 guidelines and using an initial 1992 pool of carbon, the carbon pool for 2002 was estimated to be in the range of 2,668–3,112 Tg C (39 to 46 Mg C ha^???1), accounting for biomass increment and removals for the period concerned. The estimated total biomass increment was about 458 Tg over the period 1992–2002. Removals from forests include mainly timber and fuel wood, whereby the latter includes large uncertainty as reported extraction is lower than actual consumption. For the purpose of this study, the annual extraction values of 23 million m³ for timber and 126 million m³ for fuel wood were used. Out of the total area, 10 million ha are plantation forests with an average productivity (3.2 Mg ha^???1 year^???1) that is higher than natural forests, a correction of 408 Tg C for the 10 year period was incorporated in total estimated phytomass carbon pool of Indian forests. This results in an estimate for the net sink of 4 Tg C year^???1. Both approaches indicate Indian forests to be sequestering carbon and both the estimates are in agreement with recent studies. A major uncertainty in Indian phytomass carbon pool dynamics is associated with trees outside forests and with soil organic carbon dynamics. Using recent remote-sensing based estimates of tree cover and growing stock outside forests, the estimated phytomass carbon pool for trees outside forests for the year 2002, is 934 Tg C with a national average tree carbon density of 4 Mg C ha^???1 in non-forest area, in contrast to an average density of 43 Mg C ha^???1 in forests. Future studies will have to consider dynamics in both trees outside forests and soil for total terrestrial carbon dynamics.  相似文献   

Past connections and present similarities in slave ownership and fossil fuel usage     

Jean-Fran?ois Mouhot 《Climatic change》2011,105(1-2):329-355

The first part of the paper demonstrates the connection between the abolition of slavery and the Industrial Revolution: steam power changed the perception of labour; new techniques facilitated diffusion of pro-abolition pamphlets; fewer threats to basic existence resulting from industrial advances fostered sensibilities and moral standards toward abolitionism; and, through industrial development, the North grasped victory in the American Civil War. The second part presents similarities between societies in the past that have used slave labour and those in the present that use fossil fuels. It argues that slaves and fossil-fuelled machines play(ed) similar economic and social roles: both slave societies and developed countries externalise(d) labour and both slaves and modern machines free(d) their owners from daily chores. Consequently, we are as dependent on fossil fuels as slave societies were dependent on bonded labour. It also suggests that, in differing ways, suffering resulting (directly) from slavery and (indirectly) from the excessive burning of fossil fuels are now morally comparable. When we emit carbon dioxide at a rate that exceeds what the ecosystem can absorb, when we deplete non-renewable resources, we indirectly cause suffering to other human beings. Similarly, cheap oil facilitates imports of goods from countries with little social protection and hence help externalise oppression. The conclusion draws on the lessons which may be learned by Climate Change campaigners from the campaigns to abolish slavery: environmental apathy can be opposed effectively if we learn from what worked in the fight against this inhuman institution.  相似文献   

Improving a tree-ring reconstruction from west-central Scandinavia: 900?years of warm-season temperatures     

Bj?rn E. Gunnarson  Hans W. Linderholm  Anders Moberg 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(1-2):97-108

Dendroclimatological sampling of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) has been made in the province of J?mtland, in the west-central Scandinavian mountains, since the 1970s. The tree-ring width (TRW) chronology spans several thousand years and has been used to reconstruct June?CAugust temperatures back to 1632 bc. A maximum latewood density (MXD) dataset, covering the period ad 1107?C1827 (with gap 1292?C1315) was presented in the 1980s by Fritz Schweingruber. Here we combine these historical MXD data with recently collected MXD data covering ad 1292?C2006 into a single reconstruction of April?CSeptember temperatures for the period ad 1107?C2006. Regional curve standardization (RCS) provides more low-frequency variability than ??non-RCS?? and stronger correlation with local seasonal temperatures (51% variance explained). The MXD chronology shows a stronger relationship with temperatures than the TRW data, but the two chronologies show similar multi-decadal variations back to ad 1500. According to the MXD chronology, the period since ad 1930 and around ad 1150?C1200 were the warmest during the last 900?years. Due to large uncertainties in the early part of the combined MXD chronology, it is not possible to conclude which period was the warmest. More sampling of trees growing near the tree-line is needed to further improve the MXD chronology.  相似文献   

Evaluation of a Photosynthesis-Based Canopy Resistance Formulation in the Noah Land-Surface Model     

Anil?KumarEmail author  Fei?Chen  Dev?Niyogi  Joseph?G.?Alfieri  Michael?Ek  Kenneth?Mitchell 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2011,138(2):263-284

Accurately representing complex land-surface processes balancing complexity and realism remains one challenge that the weather modelling community is facing nowadays. In this study, a photosynthesis-based Gas-exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) is integrated into the Noah land-surface model replacing the traditional Jarvis scheme for estimating the canopy resistance and transpiration. Using 18-month simulations from the High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS), the impact of the photosynthesis-based approach on the simulated canopy resistance, surface heat fluxes, soil moisture, and soil temperature over different vegetation types is evaluated using data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site, Oklahoma Mesonet, 2002 International H₂O Project (IHOP_2002), and three Ameriflux sites. Incorporation of GEM into Noah improves the surface energy fluxes as well as the associated diurnal cycle of soil moisture and soil temperature during both wet and dry periods. An analysis of midday, average canopy resistance shows similar day-to-day trends in the model fields as seen in observed patterns. Bias and standard deviation analyses for soil temperature and surface fluxes show that GEM responds somewhat better than the Jarvis scheme, mainly because the Jarvis approach relies on a parametrised minimum canopy resistance and meteorological variables such as air temperature and incident radiation. The analyses suggest that adding a photosynthesis-based transpiration scheme such as GEM improves the ability of the land-data assimilation system to simulate evaporation and transpiration under a range of soil and vegetation conditions.  相似文献   

An Investigation into Ridge-Top Turbulence Characteristics During Neutral and Weakly Stable Conditions: Velocity Spectra and Isotropy     

Marwan?KaturjiEmail author  Andrew?Sturman  Peyman?Zawar-Reza 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2011,139(1):143-160

An investigation into high Reynolds number turbulent flow over a ridge top in New Zealand is described based on high-resolution in-situ measurements, using ultrasonic anemometers for two separate locations on the same ridge with differing upwind terrain complexity. Twelve 5-h periods during neutrally stratified and weakly stable atmospheric conditions with strong wind speeds were sampled at 20 Hz. Large (and small) turbulent length scales were recorded for both vertical and longitudinal velocity components in the range of 7–23 m (0.7–3.3 m) for the vertical direction and 628–1111 m (10.5–14.5 m) for the longitudinal direction. Large-scale eddy sizes scaled to the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) numerical model simulated boundary-layer thickness for both sites, while small-scale turbulent features were a function of the complexity of the upwind terrain. Evidence of a multi-scale turbulent structure was obtained at the more complex terrain site, while an assessment of the three-dimensional isotropy assumption in the inertial subrange of the spectrum showed anisotropic turbulence at the less complex site and evidence of isotropic turbulence at the more complex site, with a spectral ratio convergence deviating from the 4/3 or unity values suggested by previous theory and practice. Existing neutral spectral models can represent locations along the ridge top with simple upwind complexity, especially for the vertical wind spectra, but sites with more orographic complexity and strong vertical wind speeds are often poorly represented using these models. Measured spectra for the two sites exhibited no significant diurnal variation and very similar large-scale and small-scale turbulent length scales for each site, but the turbulence energy measured by the variances revealed a strong diurnal difference.  相似文献   

Comparison of models calculating the sky view factor used for urban climate investigations     

Martin H?mmerle  Tam��s G��l  J��nos Unger  Andreas Matzarakis 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,105(3-4):521-527

The sky view factor (SVF) describes the surface geometry and is a commonly used and important measure in urban climate investigations whose aim is the exploration of effects of a complex urban surface on climatological processes in built-up areas. A selection of methods and models for calculating the SVF was compared. For this purpose, fish eye images were taken at several locations in the city of Szeged, southern Hungary. The fish eye images equidistantly follow linear transects to cover a range of SVF values and to analyze the reaction of the methods to a continuously changing environment. The fish eye pictures were evaluated by three methods: the method according to Steyn (Atmos-Ocean 18(3):245?C258, 1980) implemented in a GIS-Script, the ??Edit free sky view factor?? tool of the RayMan model and BMSkyView. The SVF values at the coordinates of the fish eye pictures were calculated with three numerical models (SkyHelios, ArcView SVF extension, and SOLWEIG) with a 3D building data base as input. After comparing the results of the first run, a deviation occurs. The deviation disappears after implementing an option to include a weighting factor in some of the models.  相似文献