Percentile-based neighborhood precipitation verification and its application to a landfalling tropical storm case with radar data assimilation     

Kefeng Zhu  Yi Yang  Ming Xue 《大气科学进展》2015,32(11):1449-1459

The traditional threat score based on fixed thresholds for precipitation verification is sensitive to intensity forecast bias.In this study, the neighborhood precipitation threat score is modified by defining the thresholds in terms of the percentiles of overall precipitation instead of fixed threshold values. The impact of intensity forecast bias on the calculated threat score is reduced. The method is tested with the forecasts of a tropical storm that re-intensified after making landfall and caused heavy flooding. The forecasts are produced with and without radar data assimilation. The forecast with assimilation of both radial velocity and reflectivity produce precipitation patterns that better match observations but have large positive intensity bias.When using fixed thresholds, the neighborhood threat scores fail to yield high scores for forecasts that have good pattern match with observations, due to large intensity bias. In contrast, the percentile-based neighborhood method yields the highest score for the forecast with the best pattern match and the smallest position error. The percentile-based method also yields scores that are more consistent with object-based verifications, which are less sensitive to intensity bias, demonstrating the potential value of percentile-based verification.  相似文献   

Impact of 4DVAR Assimilation of AIRS Total Column Ozone Observations on the Simulation of Hurricane Earl   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

LIU Yin  ZOU Xiaolei 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2015,29(2):257-271

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder(AIRS) provides twice-daily global observations of brightness temperature, which can be used to retrieve the total column ozone with high spatial and temporal resolution.In order to apply the AIRS ozone data to numerical prediction of tropical cyclones, a four-dimensional variational(4DVAR) assimilation scheme on selected model levels is adopted and implemented in the mesoscale non-hydrostatic model MM5. Based on the correlation between total column ozone and potential vorticity(PV), the observation operator of each level is established and five levels with highest correlation coefficients are selected for the 4DVAR assimilation of the AIRS total column ozone observations. The results from the numerical experiments using the proposed assimilation scheme for Hurricane Earl show that the ozone data assimilation affects the PV distributions with more mesoscale information at high levels first and then influences those at middle and low levels through the so-called asymmetric penetration of PV anomalies.With the AIRS ozone data being assimilated, the warm core of Hurricane Earl is intensified, resulting in the improvement of other fields near the hurricane center. The track prediction is improved mainly due to adjustment of the steering flows in the assimilation experiment.  相似文献   

Satellite Data Assimilation of Upper-Level Sounding Channels in HWRF with Two Different Model Tops          下载免费PDF全文

ZOU Xiaolei  WENG Fuzhong  Vijay TALLAPRAGADA  LIN Lin  ZHANG Banglin  WU Chenfeng  QIN Zhengkun 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2015,29(1):1-27

The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A(AMSU-A) onboard the NOAA satellites NOAA-18 and NOAA-19 and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites(EUMETSAT)Met Op-A, the hyperspectral Atmospheric Infrared Sounder(AIRS) onboard Aqua, the High resolution Infra Red Sounder(HIRS) onboard NOAA-19 and Met Op-A, and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder(ATMS) onboard Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership(NPP) satellite provide upper-level sounding channels in tropical cyclone environments. Assimilation of these upper-level sounding channels data in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting(HWRF) system with two different model tops is investigated for the tropical storms Debby and Beryl and hurricanes Sandy and Isaac that occurred in 2012. It is shown that the HWRF system with a higher model top allows more upper-level microwave and infrared sounding channels data to be assimilated into HWRF due to a more accurate upper-level background profile. The track and intensity forecasts produced by the HWRF data assimilation and forecast system with a higher model top are more accurate than those with a lower model top.  相似文献   

Assimilating AMSU-a radiance data with the WRF hybrid En3DVAR system for track predictions of Typhoon Megi (2010)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

SHEN Feifei  MIN Jinzhong 《大气科学进展》2015,32(9):1231-1243

The impact of assimilating radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) on the track prediction of Typhoon Megi (2010) was studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and a hybrid ensemble three-dimensional variational (En3DVAR) data assimilation (DA) system. The influences of tuning the length scale and variance scale factors related to the static background error covariance (BEC) on the track forecast of the typhoon were studied. The results show that, in typhoon radiance data assimilation, a moderate length scale factor improves the prediction of the typhoon track. The assimilation of AMSU-A radiances using 3DVAR had a slight positive impact on track forecasts, even when the static BEC was carefully tuned to optimize its performance. When the hybrid DA was employed, the track forecast was significantly improved, especially for the sharp northward turn after crossing the Philippines, with the flow-dependent ensemble covariance. The flow-dependent BEC can be estimated by the hybrid DA and was capable of adjusting the position of the typhoon systematically. The impacts of the typhoon-specific BEC derived from ensemble forecasts were revealed by comparing the analysis increments and forecasts generated by the hybrid DA and 3DVAR. Additionally, for 24 h forecasts, the hybrid DA experiment with use of the full flow-dependent background error substantially outperformed 3DVAR in terms of the horizontal winds and temperature in the lower and mid-troposphere and for moisture at all levels.  相似文献   

WRF-EnKF系统对中国南方一次暴雨过程确定性预报的试验   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

宝兴华  杨舒楠 《气象》2015,41(5):566-576

文章利用美国宾州州立大学的WRF EnKF(Ensemble Kalman Filter)实时预报系统(Real time Penn State WRF EnKF System),针对2013年5月15—16日发生在中国南方的暴雨过程进行了数值预报试验,以初步检验该系统对我国南方降水确定性预报的效果。数值试验采用2013年5月14日08时（北京时）起报的6 h间隔的1°×1° NCEP GFS (globle forecast system) 60 h预报数据（预报到5月16日20时）作为初始条件和边界条件。其中,控制试验不同化任何观测资料,同化试验通过集合卡尔曼滤波方法同化常规探空资料,分别进行确定性预报。结果表明：利用WRF EnKF系统同化常规探空资料,显著改善了数值预报的初始场,减小了各物理量的预报偏差和预报均方根误差,进而提高了此次暴雨过程的降水落区和强度的预报准确率。  相似文献   

INFLUENCE OF DIFFERENT-SCALE ERRORS INTERACTIONS ON ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF REGIONAL NWP MODEL     

张旭斌  谈哲敏 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(4):374-388

In the previous study, the influences of introducing larger- and smaller-scale errors on the background error covariances estimated at the given scales were investigated, respectively. This study used the covariances obtained in the previous study in the data assimilation and model forecast system based on three-dimensional variational method and the Weather Research and Forecasting model. In this study, analyses and forecasts from this system with different covariances for a period of one month were compared, and the causes for differing results were presented. The variations of analysis increments with different-scale errors are consistent with those of variances and correlations of background errors that were reported in the previous paper. In particular, the introduction of smaller-scale errors leads to greater amplitudes in analysis increments for medium-scale wind at the heights of both high- and low-level jets. Temperature and humidity analysis increments are greater at the corresponding scales at the middle- and upper-levels. These analysis increments could improve the intensity of the jet-convection system that includes jets at different levels and the coupling between them that is associated with latent heat release. These changes in analyses will contribute to more accurate wind and temperature forecasts in the corresponding areas. When smaller-scale errors are included, humidity analysis increments are significantly enhanced at large scales and lower levels, to moisten southern analyses. Thus, dry bias can be corrected, which will improve humidity forecasts. Moreover, the inclusion of larger- (smaller-) scale errors will be beneficial for the accuracy of forecasts of heavy (light) precipitation at large (small) scales because of the amplification (diminution) of the intensity and area in precipitation forecasts.  相似文献   

Numerical study of current fields near the Changjiang Estuary and impact of Quick-EnKF assimilation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

CHEN Xueen  ZHAN Peng  CHEN Jinrui  QIAN Hongbao 《海洋学报(英文版)》2011,30(5):33-44

A 30-d current numerical simulation is running for the Yangshan Port, the Changjiang Estuary, the Hangzhou Bay and their adjacent seas using a finite volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM), with Changjiang River runoff and wind effect being considered. At the open boundary, this model is driven by the water level obtained from prediction including eight main partial tides. After the harmonic analysis, the cotidal chart and the iso-amplitude line as well as the current ellipse distribution map are displayed to illustrate the propagation property of a tidal wave. Horizontal velocity of both the U and V components coincides with the actual measurement, which shows that the model result is credible to describe the hydrodynamic pattern in this sea area. On this basis, real-time current data from high-frequency radar is assimilated with the implementation of quick ensemble Kalman filter, which takes the variation tendency of the state vector to compute the analysis field, instead of integrating the field for N (the number of ensemble) times as it used to in the standard EnKF, aiming at raising the efficiency of computation, reducing the error of prediction and at the same time, improving the forecast effect.  相似文献   

Meteorological influences of SST anomaly over the East Asian marginal sea on subpolar and polar regions: A case of an extratropical cyclone on 5–8 November 2006     

Ami Ueda  Masaru Yamamoto  Naoki Hirose 《Polar Science》2011,5(1):1-10

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四维变分资料同化在风暴潮模拟中的平流作用分析     

李毅能  彭世球  舒业强  赖志娟 《热带海洋学报》2011,(5)

利用基于三维斜压非线性的普林斯顿海洋模型(POM)及其切向线性伴随模式的四维变分数据同化(4DVAR)系统对一个近岸风暴潮个例进行理想同化试验和模拟,着重分析了四维变分数据同化增水改善中的二维平流作用。试验结果表明,同化后的水位结果明显优于同化前的结果,而且同化对预报的影响主要在前5h,尤其是积分到3—4h时同化和无同化的结果差异最大,在5h后同化的影响变得非常小。从平流作用中分析得知,无论是只同化水位还是同化水位和海表流速,同化的结果都增大了沿岸和向岸的平流。与无同化结果相比,同化试验的增水改善主要是来自向岸平流的增大,但只同化水位时由于水位增大使向岸压力梯度减小从而阻碍了向岸流的进一步增大;而同时同化水位和海表流速时,由于流速也被改善,故增水改善更明显和合理。  相似文献   

同化海温观测数据研究波浪破碎对海洋上层结构的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

张学峰  韩桂军  吴新荣  李威  王东晓 《热带海洋学报》2011,(5)

首先利用考虑波浪破碎效应的Mellor-Yamada 2.5阶湍流闭合方案,探讨了海表温度(SST)对波能因子α和Charnock数β的敏感性问题。然后采用变分数据同化途径,基于Papa海洋天气站(OWS Papa Station)的上层温度观测数据,对该参数化方案中的波能因子α和Charnock数β两个参数进行了最优估计。最优估计的结果表明,当α约为167、β约为4.1×105时,价值函数达到最小值。利用上述参数的最优估计进行海温的数值模拟,可以较好地反映出海表温度的日变化和月变化过程,模拟的上混合层的温度和深度也与观测较为一致。最后利用以上参数的最优估计结果对湍动能方程进行诊断计算,研究了波浪破碎对海洋上层湍能量收支的影响。  相似文献