江淮流域夏季降水的准两年振荡特征及其关联因子分析          下载免费PDF全文

张璟  智协飞  缪锴  罗晓蔚 《大气科学学报》2014,37(5):541-547

利用1951—2010年我国江淮流域11个测站夏季(6—8月)降水资料和NCAR提供的北半球月平均海平面气压场资料以及相关的西太平洋副高指数资料,采用Morlet小波变换、交叉小波变换及相关分析等方法讨论了降水准两年振荡现象的年际变化规律及其与东亚夏季风、副高的关系。结果表明,准两年振荡分量在江淮地区夏季降水场的年际振荡中十分重要,且经历了由强到弱再到强的变化过程;同时降水与夏季风强度及副高脊线位置的准两年变化均存在较好的同期相关,彼此间的相互影响还体现在年际尺度上,并分别在4 a和1 a时间尺度上有明显的滞后、超前关系。  相似文献   

吉林春旱期降水潜在影响因子的分离时间尺度分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

吴香华  牛生杰  金德镇  孙海燕 《大气科学学报》2014,37(5):548-557

基于1960—2012年的地面常规气象指标、大尺度气候指数和NOAA气候分析产品,利用功率谱周期分析、时间尺度分离分析和交叉检验的逐步回归分析等,把吉林省春旱期(4—5月)降水量分离成不同时间尺度的值,并在年代际尺度和年际尺度下分别找到显著相关的影响因子。结果表明:吉林春旱期降水存在着2~4 a的年际变化和10 a左右的年代际变化。在年代际尺度上,4月降水与前期3月南半球环球状态指数以及俄罗斯东部高纬地区的低空经向风有关,5月降水与同期北半球环球状态指数和前期4月太平洋中高纬环流有关;在年际尺度上,4月降水与前期3月混合ENSO指数和同期当地相对湿度、华东华北沿海地区的低层经向风有关,5月降水与同期北大西洋涛动指数以及局地相对湿度、地面气压有关。利用选出的影响因子对降水进行预报,估计值和真实值的相关系数分别为0.67(4月)和0.81(5月),且选择合适的影响因子比模型结构更加重要。  相似文献   

华北地区夏季降水模拟研究:区域气候模式性能评估   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

闫冠华  李泽椿 《大气科学学报》2014,37(5):558-567

利用高分辨率区域气候模式Reg CM3对华北地区1991—2002年夏季气候进行了数值模拟,对照中国台站的实测资料,对模拟的华北地区夏季降水、温度进行了较为全面的比较,以检验模式的模拟性能。对平均场的模拟结果检验认为,该区域气候模式对华北地区夏季降水的空间分布模拟存在一定的误差,河套地区及黄河以南地区降水量接近实况,沿着太行山脉及东部沿海地区降水量明显偏多。模式对温度的模拟误差较小,较好地再现了气温的空间分布特征,但山西及以北地区模拟的温度略偏低。模式能够较好地模拟出华北地区夏季降水和气温的年际变化,成功再现了该区域降水和气温的异常变化。模式能够成功模拟出该区域降水和气温日变化特征,特别是对于逐年夏季的降水日变化过程的峰值和谷值均有成功表现,对于典型年份华北地区较强降水过程中降水发生的时间、落区、强度等也有再现能力,不足的是模拟的降水量比观测偏大。对于模式误差是否与地形或模式积云对流参数化方案等有关,需要进一步探讨。  相似文献   

A Dipole Pattern of Summer Precipitation over Mid-high Latitude Asia and Related Snow Cover Anomalies in the Preceding Spring          下载免费PDF全文

HAN Jin-Ping  LIU Ge  XIN Yu-Fei 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(4):364-368

A dipole pattern of summer precipitation over the mid-high latitudes of Asia, which is characterized by opposing summer precipitation variations between the Mongolian and Northeast China （MNC） region and the West Siberian Plain （WSP）, is found to be clear and stable on both interdecadal and interannual scales during 1981- 2011. Spring snow cover anomalies over a small region within the WSP and the Heilongjiang River （HR） region are closely related to the variation of this dipole mode during the subsequent summer, and they can therefore be considered as forecasting factors. Our statistical results imply a potential process explaining the relationship between the spring snow anomalies and the summer rainfall dipole. Corresponding to the snow anomalies, Rossby waves propagate along a path from the WSP region, via the Mongolian Plateau, to the Stanovoy Range during summer. At the same time, Rossby-wave energy divergences and convergences along this path maintain and reinforce an anomalous cyclone and anticyclone pairing over the Asian continent, which is significantly linked to opposite summer precipitation anomalies between the MNC and WSP regions. Numerical experiments are need- ed to further confirm the above conjecture and demonstrate the detailed physical mechanisms linking the spring snow cover anomalies and summer precipitation dipole.  相似文献   

The Relationship between the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet and Summer Precipitation over East Asia as Simulated by the IAP AGCM4.0          下载免费PDF全文

YAN Zheng-Bin  LIN Zhao-Hui  ZHANG He 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,7(6):487-492

Based on a 30-year Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project（AMIP） simulation using IAP AGCM4.0, the relationship between the East Asian subtropical westerly jet（EASWJ） and summer precipitation over East Asia has been investigated, and compared with observation. It was found the meridional displacement of the EASWJ has a closer relationship with the precipitation over East Asia both from model simulation and observation, with an anomalous southward shift of EASWJ being conducive to rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley（YHRV）, and an anomalous northward shift resulting in less rainfall over the YHRV. However, the simulated precipitation anomalies were found to be weaker than observed from the composite analysis, and this would be related to the weakly reproduced mid-upper-level convergence in the mid-high latitudes and ascending motion in the lower latitudes.  相似文献   

The Second Decadal Leading Mode of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall          下载免费PDF全文

BAO Qing  YU Pei 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):417-421

The first decadal leading mode of East Asian summer rainfall （EASR） is characterized by rainfall anomalies along the East Asian subtropical rain belt. This study focuses on the second decadal leading mode （2DLM）, accounting for 17.3% of rainfall decadal vari- ance, as distinct from the other two neighboring modes of EAMR, based on the state-of-the-art in-situ rainfall data. This mode is characterized by a South-China-wet-Huaihe- River-dry pattern, and is dominated by a quasi-30-yr pe- riod. Further analysis reveals the 2DLM corresponds to an enhanced lower-level monsoon jet, an eastward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high, and a weakened East Asian upper-level westerly jet flow. The Tibetan Plateau surface temperature and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） are closely linked with the 2DLM. The regressed SST pattern indicates the PDO-like pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies may have a telecon- nection relationship with the 2DLM of EASR.  相似文献   

The Combined Effect of Initial Error and Model Error on ENSO Prediction Uncertainty Generated by the Zebiak-Cane Model          下载免费PDF全文

ZHAO Peng  DUAN Wan-Suo 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):447-452

Initial errors and model errors are the source of prediction errors. In this study, the authors compute the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP）-type initial errors and nonlinear forcing singular vector （NFSV）- type tendency errors of the Zebiak-Cane model with respect to El Nifio events and analyze their combined effect on the prediction errors for E1 Nino events. The CNOP- type initial error （NFSV-type tendency error） represents the initial errors （model errors） that have the largest effect on prediction uncertainties for E1 Nifio events under the perfect model （perfect initial conditions） scenario. How- ever, when the CNOP-type initial errors and the NFSV- type tendency errors are simultaneously considered in the model, the prediction errors caused by them are not am- plified as the authors expected. Specifically, the predic- tion errors caused by the combined mode of CNOP-type initial errors and NFSV-type tendency errors are a little larger than those caused by the NFSV-type tendency er- rors. This fact emphasizes a need to investigate the opti- mal combined mode of initial errors and tendency errors that cause the largest prediction error for E1 Nifio events.  相似文献   

“7.29”青海重大灾害性天气过程决策气象服务案例分析     

《青海气象》2014,(3)

2012年7月29日至30日,青海省出现了重大灾害性天气过程,本文利用数值预报产品和常规气象观测资料、卫星云图、多普勒雷达回波产品资料,对此次过程进行了详细分析,总结归纳了预报技术指标与预报技术难点,并分析了这次决策气象服务情况,总结了其成功经验。  相似文献   

湘东北盛夏午后热对流降水分析     

《青海气象》2014,(4)

本文通过对2013年8月16日—19日影响湘东北地区盛夏午后对流性降水的幕阜山区EC850h Pa24小时预报风向、地形对湘东北午后热对流降水影响的分析,总结了湘东北盛夏午后热对流降水源地与低层风向的关系以及幕阜山、连云山对湘东北午后热对流降水的作用。  相似文献   

覆盖中国沿海地区的精细化台风风暴潮模型的研究及适用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

刘秋兴  董剑希  于福江  傅赐福  李明杰 《海洋学报》2014,36(11):30-37

精细化风暴潮预报是目前风暴潮预报重点发展方向之一,本文首次建立起了一个覆盖整个中国沿海地区的精细化台风风暴潮数值模型,克服了以往分区域数值模型的不足,该模型在中国沿海地区的分辨率达到300m左右。模型采用了并行计算,并对2012年和2013年灾害性台风风暴潮过程进行了数值检验,计算精度和计算所用时间都能够满足业务化运行的要求。本文同时还根据中国气象局、美国国家气象局等5家主要台风预报机构给出的24h台风预报,对2013年度灾害性台风风暴潮过程进行了24h数值预报检验,检验结果表明:根据中国气象局台风登陆前24h预报可以得到更准确的风暴潮预报结果,其预报结果优于其他各家预报结果。该结论可以为今后的台风风暴潮预报中台风路径的选取提供重要的参考。  相似文献