非典型周期和气候突变的识别与判定          下载免费PDF全文

秦建国 《水文》2020,40(1):23-28

通过两种新方法分析了无锡站降水年际变化的突变性、周期性等特征,揭示了旱涝演化的自然规律。研究表明,1934、1978、2013年是我国近现代气候突变的临界点,这是旱涝演化的自然选择;无锡站年际降水的观测历史可分成四个特征不同的时段,每个时段节点对应的都是一次气候突变;气候突变会改变年际降水序列的一致性,分段法研究可以大幅度降低模拟难度、提高预测效率。发现并确认了3个气候突变点,实现了超长缺测中断期(13a)旱涝趋势的精确插补,完成了无锡站近百年降雨序列的周期性分析与旱涝趋势预测模拟,研究成果改变了近现代气候历史无法细分的现状。  相似文献   

Forest operations,tree species composition and decline in rainfall explain runoff changes in the Nacimiento experimental catchments,south central Chile     

Andrés Iroumé  Julia Jones  James C. Bathurst 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14257

Few long-term studies have explored how intensively managed short rotation forest plantations interact with climate variability. We examine how prolonged severe drought and forest operations affect runoff in 11 experimental catchments on private corporate forest land near Nacimiento in south central Chile over the period 2008–2019. The catchments (7.7–414 ha) contain forest plantations of exotic fast-growing species (Pinus radiata, Eucalyptus spp.) at various stages of growth in a Mediterranean climate (mean long-term annual rainfall = 1381 mm). Since 2010, a drought, unprecedented in recent history, has reduced rainfall at Nacimiento by 20%, relative to the long-term mean. Pre-drought runoff ratios were <0.2 under 8-year-old Eucalyptus; >0.4 under 21-year-old Radiata pine and >0.8 where herbicide treatments had controlled vegetation for 2 years in 38% of the catchment area. Early in the study period, clearcutting of Radiata pine (85%–95% of catchment area) increased streamflow by 150 mm as compared with the year before harvest, while clearcutting and partial cuts of Eucalyptus did not increase streamflow. During 2008–2019, the combination of emerging drought and forestry treatments (replanting with Eucalyptus after clearcutting of Radiata pine and Eucalyptus) reduced streamflow by 400–500 mm, and regeneration of previously herbicide-treated vegetation combined with growth of Eucalyptus plantations reduced streamflow by 1125 mm (87% of mean annual precipitation 2010–2019). These results from one of the most comprehensive forest catchment studies in the world on private industrial forest land indicate that multiple decades of forest management have reduced deep soil moisture reservoirs. This effect has been exacerbated by drought and conversion from Radiata pine to Eucalyptus, apparently largely eliminating subsurface supply to streamflow. The findings reveal tradeoffs between wood production and water supply, provide lessons for adapting forest management to the projected future drier climate in Chile, and underscore the need for continued experimental work in managed forest plantations.  相似文献   

Hydrological trends and the evolution of catchment research in the Alptal valley,central Switzerland     

Manfred Stähli  Jan Seibert  James W. Kirchner  Jana von Freyberg  Ilja van Meerveld 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14113

When the observation of small headwater catchments in the pre-Alpine Alptal valley (central Switzerland) started in the late 1960s, the researchers were mainly interested in questions related to floods and forest management. Investigations of geomorphological processes in the steep torrent channels followed in the 1980s, along with detailed observations of biogeochemical and ecohydrological processes in individual forest stands. More recently, research in the Alptal has addressed the impacts of climate change on water supply and runoff generation. In this article, we describe, for the first time, the evolution of catchment research at Alptal, and present new analyses of long-term trends and short-term hydrologic behaviour. Hydrometeorological time series from the past 50 years show substantial interannual variability, but only minimal long-term trends, except for the ~2°C increase in mean annual air temperature over the 50-year period, and a corresponding shift towards earlier snowmelt. Similar to previous studies in larger Alpine catchments, the decadal variations in mean annual runoff in Alptal's small research catchments reflect the long-term variability in annual precipitation. In the Alptal valley, the most evident hydrological trends were observed in late spring and are related to the substantial change in the duration of the snow cover. Streamflow and water quality are highly variable within and between hydrological events, suggesting rapid shifts in flow pathways and mixing, as well as changing connectivity of runoff-generating areas. This overview illustrates how catchment research in the Alptal has evolved in response to changing societal concerns and emerging scientific questions.  相似文献   

不同盐度对文蛤(Meretrix meretrix)呼吸代谢及体内酶活性的影响     

白奕天  丁天扬  李东东  聂鸿涛  闫喜武 《海洋科学》2018,42(6):123-131

为研究不同盐度对文蛤呼吸代谢的影响,本实验设置5个盐度(‰)梯度(11、18、25、32、39),检测不同盐度对文蛤(Meretrixmeretrix)耗氧和排氨的影响,以及文蛤的外套膜、鳃、肝胰腺三种组织中乳酸脱氢酶和Na+/K+-ATP酶活性的变化。结果表明:随着盐度的不断升高,文蛤耗氧率先升后降再升,在盐度18时达到最大值;排氨率先升后降,在盐度32时达到最大值。随着盐度不断升高和胁迫时间延长,文蛤的肝胰腺中乳酸脱氢酶活力总体呈先升高后下降再升高的趋势(P0.05),酶活力在盐度39时为最高;随着盐度不断升高和胁迫时间延长,文蛤的外套膜中Na+/K+-ATP酶活力总体呈先下降再升高后下降的趋势(P0.05),在盐度32时为最高;文蛤的外套膜和鳃中乳酸脱氢酶活力以及鳃和肝胰腺中Na+/K+-ATP酶活力受盐度影响不显著(P0.05),酶活力变化也多呈现"W"形的变化趋势。研究结果为文蛤的人工养殖提供参考。  相似文献   

Terrestrial discharge influences microbioerosion and microbioeroder community structure in coral reefs     

SA Mwachireya  M Carreiro-Silva  BE Hartwick  TR McClanahan 《African Journal of Marine Science》2018,40(1):25-42

Microbioerosion rates and microbioeroder community structure were studied in four Kenyan protected coral-reef lagoons using shell fragments of Tridacna giant clams to determine their response to the influence of terrestrial run-off. Fourteen different microbioeroder traces from seven cyanobacteria, three green algae and four fungi species were identified. The river discharge-impacted reef and ‘pristine’ reef showed similar composition but higher microbioeroder abundance and total cyanobacteria- and chlorophyte-bioeroded areas when compared with the other study reefs. Cyanobacteria dominated during the north-east monsoon (NEM) relative to the south-east monsoon (SEM) season, with algae and cyanobacteria being major microbioeroders in the river-impacted and pristine reefs. The rate of microbioerosion varied between 4.3 g CaCO3 m^?2 y^?1 (SEM) and 134.7 g CaCO₃ m^?2 y^?1 (NEM), and was highest in the river-impacted reef (127.6 g CaCO₃ m^?2 y^?1), which was almost double that in the pristine reef (69.5 g CaCO₃ m^?2 y^?1) and the mangrove-fringed reef (56.2 g CaCO₃ m^?2 y^?1). The microbioerosion rates measured in this study may not be high enough to cause concern with regard to the health and net carbonate production of Kenya’s coral reefs. Nevertheless, predicted increases in the frequency and severity of stresses related to global climate change (e.g. increased sea surface temperature, acidification), as well as interactions with local disturbances and their influence on bioerosion, may be increasingly important in the future.  相似文献   

Modelling the effect of changing precipitation inputs on deep soil water utilization          下载免费PDF全文

Ji Qi  Daniel Markewitz  David Radcliffe 《水文研究》2018,32(5):672-686

Forests in the Southeastern United States are predicted to experience future changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs as well as more variable precipitation events. These climate change‐induced alterations could increase drought and lower soil water availability. Drought could alter rooting patterns and increase the importance of deep roots that access subsurface water resources. To address plant response to drought in both deep rooting and soil water utilization as well as soil drainage, we utilize a throughfall reduction experiment in a loblolly pine plantation of the Southeastern United States to calibrate and validate a hydrological model. The model was accurately calibrated against field measured soil moisture data under ambient rainfall and validated using 30% throughfall reduction data. Using this model, we then tested these scenarios: (a) evenly reduced precipitation; (b) less precipitation in summer, more in winter; (c) same total amount of precipitation with less frequent but heavier storms; and (d) shallower rooting depth under the above 3 scenarios. When less precipitation was received, drainage decreased proportionally much faster than evapotranspiration implying plants will acquire water first to the detriment of drainage. When precipitation was reduced by more than 30%, plants relied on stored soil water to satisfy evapotranspiration suggesting 30% may be a threshold that if sustained over the long term would deplete plant available soil water. Under the third scenario, evapotranspiration and drainage decreased, whereas surface run‐off increased. Changes in root biomass measured before and 4 years after the throughfall reduction experiment were not detected among treatments. Model simulations, however, indicated gains in evapotranspiration with deeper roots under evenly reduced precipitation and seasonal precipitation redistribution scenarios but not when precipitation frequency was adjusted. Deep soil and deep rooting can provide an important buffer capacity when precipitation alone cannot satisfy the evapotranspirational demand of forests. How this buffering capacity will persist in the face of changing precipitation inputs, however, will depend less on seasonal redistribution than on the magnitude of reductions and changes in rainfall frequency.  相似文献   

从第三极到北极： 积雪变化研究进展   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0  

刘一静  孙燕华  钟歆玥  王树发  肖雄新  马丽娟  苏航  赵文宇  张廷军 《冰川冻土》2020,42(1):140-156

在全球气候变化背景下， 第三极和北极地区积雪是地表最活跃的自然要素之一， 其动态变化对气候环境和人类生活产生重要影响。通过回顾第三极和北极积雪研究进展， 阐述了降雪、 积雪范围、 积雪日数、 积雪深度和雪水当量在第三极和北极地区的时空分布特征和变化趋势。结果表明： 近50年， 特别是进入21世纪以来， 第三极和北极地区降雪比率均呈下降趋势； 积雪范围、 积雪日数、 积雪深度、 雪水当量总体均呈减小趋势， 融雪首日有所提前。同时就积雪变化对生态系统与气候系统的影响进行了论述， 评估了积雪的反馈作用。通过总结第三极和北极积雪变化研究进展， 凝练研究中存在的不足和未来发展趋势， 为提升积雪对气候变化及经济社会发展影响的认识提供重要科学支撑。  相似文献   

Variations in glacier volume and snow cover and their impact on lake storage in the Paiku Co Basin,in the Central Himalayas     

Xingxing Zhang  Rui Wang  Zhijun Yao  Zhaofei Liu 《水文研究》2020,34(8):1920-1933

Glaciers and snow cover are important constituents of the surface of the Tibetan Plateau. The responses of these phenomena to global environmental changes are sensitive, rapid and intensive due to the high altitudes and arid cold climate of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on multisource remote sensing data, including Landsat images, MOD10A2 snow product, ICESat, Cryosat-2 altimetry data and long-term ground climate observations, we analysed the dynamic changes of glaciers, snow melting and lake in the Paiku Co basin using extraction methods for glaciers and lake, the degree-day model and the ice and lake volume method. The interaction among the climate, ice-snow and the hydrological elements in Paiku Co is revealed. From 2000 to 2018, the basin tended to be drier, and rainfall decreased at a rate of −3.07 mm/a. The seasonal temperature difference in the basin increased, the maximum temperature increased at a rate of 0.02°C/a and the minimum temperature decreased at a rate of −0.06°C/a, which accelerated the melting from glaciers and snow at rates of 0.55 × 10⁷ m³/a and 0.29 × 10⁷ m³/a, respectively. The rate of contribution to the lake from rainfall, snow and glacier melted water was 55.6, 27.7 and 16.7%, respectively. In the past 18 years, the warmer and drier climate has caused the lake to shrink. The water level of the lake continued to decline at a rate of −0.02 m/a, and the lake water volume decreased by 4.85 × 10⁸ m³ at a rate of −0.27 × 10⁸ m³/a from 2000 to 2018. This evaluation is important for understanding how the snow and ice melting in the central Himalayas affect the regional water cycle.  相似文献   

Swedish Forests in the Bioeconomy: Stories from the National Forest Program     

Klara Fischer  Tove Stenius  Sara Holmgren 《社会与自然资源》2020,33(7):896-913

Abstract

The concept of a bioeconomy has been placed central in formation of a Swedish National Forest Program (NFP). Drawing on Hajer’s conceptual framework of storylines, we present a discourse analysis of the working group reports underlying the establishment of the NFP strategy. We ask what stories about Swedish forests come to dominate the NFP process, how well they reflect the commitment of balancing economic, social and environmental interests, and what role the concept of a bioeconomy, has on the formation of these stories. Storylines of Swedish forests in the bioeconomy unite wider European discourses on the bioeconomy and climate change with historical Swedish forest policy discourses, revitalizing a discourse coalition comprising the state and the industry. Particular to the Swedish discourse is the strong emphasis on creating consensus around a single story of the forest-based bioeconomy.  相似文献   

生态地理学概念界定及其经典案例分析     

傅声雷  傅伯杰 《地理科学》2019,39(1):70-79

对生态地理学的概念进行了详细讨论和辨析,并将它与相近学科如生物地理学、生态地理区划、宏生态学等进行了比较分析,界定了生态地理学的概念。研究认为：生态地理学是生态学和地理学的交叉学科,是研究生态系统各组分关系和生态过程的地理空间分布格局或/和时间演变规律及其与地理环境耦合机制的学科。生态地理学的目的是揭示不同环境梯度下或不同时间尺度上生态系统各组分关系和生态过程的普适性规律及其成因。同时,结合国内外野外实验平台介绍,在全球变化等研究领域列举了经典案例进行分析：① 全球不同气候带森林凋落物分解和碳汇功能的研究;② 中国不同陆地生态系统碳通量和碳汇功能研究;③ 中国东北样带和南北样带陆地生态系统的脆弱性与适应性研究;④ 中国北方草地样带尺度的生态系统生态学研究。主要目的是在辨析生态地理学概念的基础上指出未来发展方向,推动生态地理学的发展。  相似文献