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统计降尺度方法在北京月尺度预测中的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用SDSM(statistical downscaling method)方法对北京47年(1961-2007年)的最低、最高气温和降水变化情况进行模拟评估,在此基础上对2008年北京奥运期间和2009年国庆期间天气变化进行实际预测应用。结果表明,SDSM方法具备模拟气温和降水等要素的能力。从年际变化模拟的情况上看,SDSM模型对气温模拟的效果好于降水,其中对于月平均最低(最高)气温模拟的效果好于最低(最高)气温极值的模拟。模型模拟的逐年极端最高(最低)气温结果在整体上偏低于实况气温,体现出气温极值模拟能力的不足。SDSM模型模拟的降水量整体上小于实测值,对降水极大值模拟能力更弱。对奥运会和国庆期间北京天气预测结果表明,模型对日最高、最低气温和降水的数值预测能力较差,预测值偏低于实际值,但升温和降温过程发生的时段能够准确的预测。 相似文献
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Fusing MODIS with Landsat 8 data to downscale weekly normalized difference vegetation index estimates for central Great Basin rangelands,USA 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Data fused from distinct but complementary satellite sensors mitigate tradeoffs that researchers make when selecting between spatial and temporal resolutions of remotely sensed data. We integrated data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra satellite and the Operational Land Imager sensor aboard the Landsat 8 satellite into four regression-tree models and applied those data to a mapping application. This application produced downscaled maps that utilize the 30-m spatial resolution of Landsat in conjunction with daily acquisitions of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) that are composited and temporally smoothed. We produced four weekly, atmospherically corrected, and nearly cloud-free, downscaled 30-m synthetic MODIS NDVI predictions (maps) built from these models. Model results were strong with R2 values ranging from 0.74 to 0.85. The correlation coefficients (r ≥ 0.89) were strong for all predictions when compared to corresponding original MODIS NDVI data. Downscaled products incorporated into independently developed sagebrush ecosystem models yielded mixed results. The visual quality of the downscaled 30-m synthetic MODIS NDVI predictions were remarkable when compared to the original 250-m MODIS NDVI. These 30-m maps improve knowledge of dynamic rangeland seasonal processes in the central Great Basin, United States, and provide land managers improved resource maps. 相似文献
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中国东部夏季降水与东亚垂直环流结构及其预测试验 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
本文在分析中国东部夏季降水的时空分布特征基础上, 从东亚高、中、低层大尺度环流异常着手, 选取对中国东部夏季降水异常有显著影响的大气环流预报因子, 分别应用逐步回归和最优子集回归法两种统计降尺度方法, 以动力气候模式CAM3.1预报输出的大气环流预报因子为基础, 以中国东部夏季降水的典型空间分布型为预报对象, 建立动力与统计相结合的中国东部夏季降水预测模型, 并对1981～2000年的中国东部夏季降水进行回报试验。结果表明: 中国东部夏季降水具有4类典型的空间分布型式, 且具有显著的准2年和年代际尺度振荡周期; 东亚高、中、低层大气环流异常的特定配置, 对东部夏季降水的空间分布型有显著影响; 使用两种降尺度方案建立的动力与统计相结合的预测模型对中国东部夏季降水异常具有一定的预报技巧, 可以在一定程度上提高动力模式对中国东部夏季降水的预报效果。 相似文献
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针对城市地区SRTM数字高程模型,本文引入街道空间分布信息作为辅助数据,并结合GPS实地测量,对DEM中具有空间相关性的误差部分进行修正,从而尝试在一定程度上提高SRTM数据的垂直精度和空间分辨率.本文以墨西哥城Xico地区为例,解析SRTM DEM像元分辨率单元内地物表面平均高程值的组成结构;分析形成DEM高程值的地... 相似文献
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The Xin'anjiang Model is used as the basic model to develop a monthly grid-based macroscalehydrological model for the assessment of the effects of climate change on water resources.Themonthly discharge from 1953 through 1985 in the Huaihe River Basin is simulated.The sensitivityanalysis on runoff is made under assumed climatic scenarios.There is a good agreement betweenthe observed and simulated runoff.Due to the increase of time interval and decrease ofprecipitation intensity on monthly time scale,there is no monthly runoff in some model girds as themomhly hydrological model is applied to the Huaihe River Basin.Two methods of downscalingmonthly precipitation to daily resolution are validated by running the Xin'anjiang model withmonthly data at a daily time step.and the model outputs are more realistic than the monthlyhydrological model.The metbods of downscaling of monthly precipitation to daily resolution mayprovide an idea in solving the problem of the shortage of daily data.In the research of the climatechange on water resources,the daily hydrological model can be used instead of the monthly one. 相似文献
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Jifu Yin Xiwu Zhan Jicheng Liu Hamid Moradkhani Li Fang Jeffrey P. Walker 《水文研究》2020,34(21):4083-4096
The coarse resolution soil moisture (SM) data from NASA SMAP mission have been steadily produced with the expected performance since April 2015. These coarse resolution observations could be downscaled to fine resolution using fine scale observations of SM sensitive quantities from existing satellite sensors. For operational users who need near-real-time (NRT) high resolution SM data, the downscaling approach should be feasible for operational implementation, requiring limited ancillary information and primarily depending on readily available satellite observations. Based on these principles, nine potential candidate downscaling schemes were selected for developing an optimal downscaling strategy. Using remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) observations, the optimal downscaling approach was tested for operational producing a NRT 1 km SM data product from SMAP. Comprehensive assessments on the 1 km SM product were conducted based on agreement statistics with in-situ SM measurements. Statistical results show that the accuracy of the original coarse spatial resolution SMAP SM product can be significantly improved by 8% by the downscaled 1 km SM. With respect to the in-situ measurements, the 1 km SM mapping capability developed here presents a clear advantage over the SMAP/Sentinel SM data product; and it also provides better data availability for users. This study suggests that a NRT 1 km SMAP SM data product could be routinely generated from SMAP at the centre for Satellite Applications and Research of NOAA NESDIS for operational users. 相似文献
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地表温度是陆面过程动态模拟、区域和全球变化分析等研究领域的重要参数,如何获得高时空分辨率地表温度数据一直是研究热点问题。选择河北省张家口市城郊区、山区两个区域作为试验研究区,在ERA5 0.1°分辨率地表温度订正基础上,构建随机森林降尺度模型以实现多层级分辨率的地表温度降尺度,并与Landsat 8 TIRS反演地表温度进行对比分析,以探讨再分析地表温度在不同分辨率、不同下垫面类型上的降尺度效果。结果表明：不同分辨率的降尺度结果都能够准确表达地表温度相对高低的空间分布特征,纹理精度显著提高,但降尺度误差随着空间分辨率提高而逐渐增大,城郊区和山区的降尺度均方根误差变化范围分别为1.16—1.79 ℃、1.61—2.49 ℃,地表温度高值与低值区域分别存在着低估和高估现象;随机森林降尺度模型中的参数重要性随尺度变化不大,总体表现为两个区域中植被指数NDVI的重要性都比较大,而海拔高度在山区区域对降尺度模型的影响更大。 相似文献
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资源型城市长时间序列土壤含水量变化分析——以锡林浩特市为例 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
大规模的煤炭开采活动将对生态环境产生扰动,而土壤含水量是受扰动的生态参数之一,且具有重要意义。现有的土壤含水量产品分辨率较低,不适用于区域尺度的研究,而高精度的微波反演由于数据的局限性无法进行长时间序列的研究。本文以我国的重要产煤基地锡林浩特市为研究区,以2004—2020年的AMSR-E与AMSR-2土壤含水量产品及同期的Landsat遥感影像为主要数据源,采用随机森林方法对AMSR-E/2土壤含水量产品进行降尺度处理,通过标准差椭圆等方法对研究区土壤含水量的变化特征进行分析。结果表明：①被动微波土壤含水量降尺度方法可实现对资源型城市的土壤含水量进行长时间序列、高空间分辨率的监测;②无论在矿区还是非矿区,降水均是影响土壤含水量变化的主导因素;③研究区土壤含水量的整体分布在空间上由西北向东南呈现逐渐升高的变化特征,且此分布格局在长时间尺度上保持稳定;④煤炭开采活动对土壤含水量产生扰动,且不同开采阶段的影响具有不同特征。研究结果可为资源型城市生态环境的评价与保护提供科学依据。 相似文献
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针对当前风场预报普遍精细程度偏低,动力降尺度改善风场预报应用偏少的问题,利用CALMET模式的动力诊断模块,结合高分辨率的地形资料对WRF模式输出的风场预报数据进行了动力降尺度处理,进而提高风场的精细化预报。其方法充分借助地形动力学效应,使大尺度的近地层风场经过坡度流与阻碍效应等修正后得到更精细的风场且体现出与局地地形相符的特征。试验部分以广东省为研究区域,并选取个例用观测资料与陆地同化系统资料对模拟结果进行对比检验,结果表明动力降尺度之后的风场较之前更为精细且含有更多与地形相关的信息;与观测资料对比的总体相关性较好,误差也更小,与陆地同化系统资料对比变化趋势基本一致,且误差不大,这表明WRF-CALMET方法不仅能有效地提高风场预报数据的时空分辨率而且其结果更趋近于真实,对风场的精确预报具有重要的参考价值。 相似文献