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基于葵花8卫星的上海市夏季对流初生预报研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
参考Mecikalski et al(2010a;2010b)提出的基于GOES系列卫星的对流初生预报方法,针对上海市夏季对流天气特征建立了基于高时空分辨率的静止气象卫星数据的上海市对流初生判识及预报方法。利用该方法对上海市的一次对流初生个例进行了分析,并对2016年7-8月的12次对流初生事件进行了预报试验,结果表明:方法提取的各个指标能够很好地体现对流初生过程中云团的发展变化特征并能剔除掉成熟对流云团边缘像元的干扰;在12次对流初生事件中,成功地预报了其中的11次,预报时间较对流初生时间平均提前了约30 min,但是对于局地弱对流过程该方法仍有一定的缺陷。 相似文献
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在西太平洋副热带高压控制的天气背景下,2016年8月19日下午上海地区发生一次局地短时强降水过程,此次过程历时3 h、水平范围20~40 km,呈现出生命史短、局地性强的特点。基于上海地区地面自动气象站2分钟平均资料,采用仅需一层资料计算的非地转 Q 矢量分析方法,研究分析了此次局地短时强降水发生发展演变成因,结果如下:(1)地面温度场和风场叠加分析表明,上海“城市热岛”特征与长江沿岸及邻近水域的热力不均匀分布引发了江风,江风将江岸邻近水域的湿、冷空气向城市陆地输送,并与陆地上干、热空气交汇,激发产生局地短时强降水,而降水的发生,导致地面温度下降、“城市热岛”特征减弱,从而减小水陆温度差,进而减弱江风,这直接减弱了有助于降水发生发展的动、热力强迫条件,促使降水趋于衰亡结束。(2)地面 Q 矢量散度辐合场和温度露点差叠加分析表明:在降水发生发展阶段, Q 矢量散度辐合强迫产生垂直上升运动较强,而空气湿度条件相对较弱;在降水强盛阶段, Q 矢量散度辐合强度和空气湿度的强度不仅增至最强,且上升运动区与高湿区重合;在降水衰亡阶段,地面空气一直维持高湿条件而 Q 矢量散度辐合强度明显减弱。这从地面大气中垂直上升运动条件和水汽条件揭示出致使降水强度发展演变的内在因素,且二者重叠区对降水落区有较好指示意义。最后,对地面 Q 矢量散度辐合场在局地短时强降水短临预报工作中的潜在应用前景进行了有意义的讨论。 相似文献
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This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation forecasts in eastern China fromthe European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) using the time-domain version of the Method forObject-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE-TD). A total of 23 heavy rainfall cases occurring between 2018 and 2021 areselected for analysis. Using Typhoon “Rumbia” as a case study, the paper illustrates how the MODE-TD method assessesthe overall simulation capability of models for the life history of precipitation systems. The results of multiple tests withdifferent parameter configurations reveal that the model underestimates the number of objects’ forecasted precipitationtracks, particularly at smaller radii. Additionally, the analysis based on centroid offset and area ratio tests for differentclassified precipitation objects indicates that the model performs better in predicting large-area, fast-moving, and long lifespan precipitation objects. Conversely, it tends to have less accurate predictions for small-area, slow-moving, and short lifespan precipitation objects. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model overestimates the forecasted movement speedfor precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it forprecipitation with fast movement. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model tends to overestimate the forecastedmovement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while un derestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. Overall, the model provides more accurate predictions for theduration and dissipation of precipitation objects with large-area or long-lifespan (such as typhoon precipitation) whilehaving large prediction errors for precipitation objects with small-area or short-lifespan. Furthermore, the model’s simu lation results regarding the generation of precipitation objects show that it performs relatively well in simulating thegeneration of large-area and fast-moving precipitation objects. However, there are significant differences in the forecastedgeneration of small-area and slow-moving precipitation objects after 9 hours. 相似文献
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本刊顾问编委陆培炎总工 在身患重病 住院治疗期间 仍心系着我国岩土力学与工程的发展与进步 除向<岩土力学>学报捐助人民币陆万元外 还向其它相关学报进行了捐款 令我全体办刊人员深受感动.感谢陆总以及关心帮助和支持本刊的专家和学者 我们一定不辜负您们的关心支持和厚受 并将尽心尽力地搞好学报的工作 为推动本学科的发展贡献自已的一份力量. 衷心地祝愿陆总身体早日康复! 《岩土力学》2001,22(1):20
本刊顾问编委陆培炎总工，在身患重病，住院治疗期间，仍心系着我国岩土力学与工程的发展与进步，除向《岩土力学》学报捐助人民币陆万元外，还向其它相关学报进行了捐款，令我全体办刊人员深受感动。感谢陆总以及关心、帮助和支持本刊的专家和学者，我们一定不辜负您们的关心、支持和厚受，并将尽心尽力地搞好学报的工作，为推动本学科的发展贡献自已的一份力量。 衷心地祝愿陆总身体早日康复！2001年元月感谢陆培炎总工捐助本刊6万元$《岩土力学》编辑部 相似文献
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本文首先基于地面自动站、探空、雷达和卫星资料,开展局地分析预报系统(Local Analysis and Prediction System,LAPS)上海本地化研究,并结合2010—2014年夏季6个局地对流天气个例对其性能进行检验评估。结果表明:雷达径向风资料对LAPS风速分析影响较大,使分析场风速廓线与探空廓线的均方根误差缩小约7.66%;风云卫星资料能够改善LAPS温度和相对湿度,使分析场温度、相对湿度廓线与探空廓线的均方根误差分别缩小约9.09%和14.01%;探空气球飘移对本文LAPS分析场检验影响不明显。进一步将LAPS分析场用于2011年8月13日、2014年8月4日两次局地对流个例分析表明:LAPS高时空分辨率的分析场能够反映中小尺度天气系统的时空变化,在天气尺度背景并不十分有利于对流生成的情况下,热岛、海陆风环流的形成和持续对上海夏季局地对流天气的发生和发展起到关键作用。 相似文献
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The distribution of precipitation field from the typhoon Haitang (2005)
during its landing on Fujian province shows obvious asymmetric feature. Based on
the NCEP/NCAR FNL (Final Analysis) data, this study reveals the contributions of
atmospheric factor to the asymmetrical distribution characteristics of
precipitation associated with the typhoon, through the analysis of water vapor
condition, vertical ascending motion condition, the calculation of the dry Q
vector and its decomposition, and adiabatic heating in the air column of 1000hPa
-600hPa (lower atmosphere) and 500hPa-100hPa (upper atmosphere). The results are
as follows: (1) In the lower atmosphere, the humidity on both sides of typhoon
path can be equivalent, while it is more wet on the right side than left in the
upper atmosphere, which obviously presents asymmetric distribution
characteristics. (2) Both range and intensity of the vertical motion on the right
side are wider and stronger than counterparts on the left side no matter in the
lower or upper atmosphere. (3) In the upper atmosphere, forcing role of
atmosphere in vertical upward motion on the right side of typhoon path is the
same as that on the left, while it is significantly different in the lower
atmosphere, which is significantly broader in scope and stronger in the
intensity, along with obvious asymmetric distribution characteristics. In
addition, the further analysis of the Q vector decomposition indicates that the
forcing effect of mesoscale weather systems on vertical upward motion is stronger
than that of large scale weather systems in the lower atmosphere. (4) The
adiabatic heating always exists on both lower and upper atmosphere, and the range
and intensity of the adiabatic heating forcing showed asymmetric distribution on
both lower and upper atmosphere. (5) In a summary, the upper atmosphere humidity
conditions, the forcing role of lower atmosphere in vertical upward motion,
especially, to mesoscale weather system, and adiabatic heating in the lower
atmosphere, all show similar asymmetric distribution characteristics to that of
precipitation field from the typhoon Haitang (2005), that is to say, the
atmospheric factors as mentioned above are all contributed to genesis of the
asymmetric distribution characteristics of precipitation. 相似文献
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中国电力工程顾问集团华北电力工程有限公司 《中国勘察设计》2005,(12):39-41
一、开展工程总承包业务、建设国际型工程公司方面所做的工作: 一)确立创建国际型工程公司的发展目标 二)确立公司2010年发展指标规划 三)根据战略目标和2010年发展指标规划逐步建立与国际型工程公司相适应的项目管理体系 相似文献