基于EEMD和ARIMA的海温预测模型研究          下载免费PDF全文

张莹  谭艳春  彭发定  廖杏杰  余昱昕 《海洋学研究》2019,37(1):9-14

类型丰富、时空分辨率高的海洋探测数据,为信号分解和机器学习算法的应用提供了可能。本文针对如何建立有效的海温预测模型这一问题,使用高时空分辨率的海表温度(SST)融合产品,引入信号处理领域的集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和机器学习领域的自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)。首先利用最适于分解自然信号的EEMD方法,将海温数据分解成多个确定频率的序列;再利用ARIMA分别对各个频率的序列进行预测,最后将各个序列的预测结果进行组合。该方法在丰富数据的支撑下,比以往直接使用海温数据所建立的预测模型精度更高,为更好地进行海温预测提供了新方法。  相似文献   

顾及基准站坐标动态特性与稳定性的区域框架构建     

蒋光伟  王斌  王延伟  李康  孙洋洋 《地球物理学进展》2020,(1):8-15

基准站受构造运动与非线性因素的影响,如何构建高精度、现势性强的精细区域框架是位置服务与形变分析的的关键.笔者提出顾及基准站坐标动态特性与稳定性的区域框架构建方法.以我国西部与东部某城市的多年连续运行基准站数据为例进行试算比对,试验结果表明:该方法是可行的,较好地顾及了基准站的坐标特性与非线性影响,考虑了基准站的垂直运动规律,可构建高精度的区域基准,可发现区域基准的微动态变化.  相似文献   

辽宁海洋生态补偿机制创新与实践路径探讨          下载免费PDF全文

包特力根白乙 《海洋开发与管理》2018,35(5):93-99

辽宁海洋生态补偿研究文献甚少,直面主要课题是机制创新。文章基于公共物品理论、外部性理论、生态价值理论、环境正义理论和可持续发展理论,遵循行为明确性原则、科学性原则、协商性原则、可操作性原则和动态性原则,依照海洋生态系统服务功能、海洋资源资产服务功能、海洋生态系统损害评估、海洋生态系统损失评估报告、海洋生态系统补偿与受偿主体确定、海洋生态系统补偿金额确定、海洋生态系统补偿执行、海洋生态系统补偿监控、海洋生态系统补偿评估与终结等运作程序创建了海洋生态补偿机制。进而,从提升社会公众认知、明确生态补偿制度、完善生态补偿机制、选定价值评估方法和评估生态补偿效益维度,探讨了海洋生态补偿实践路径。  相似文献   

A method to evaluate REE-HFSE mineralised provinces by value creation potential,and an example of application: Gardar REE-HFSE province,Greenland     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,11(6):2141-2156

The rare earth elements and high-field-strength elements (REE-HFSE) exploration sector conducts most evaluations at deposit and smaller scales. It is not evident how the sector performs a preceding exploration stage—rating and prioritising REE-HFSE mineralised provinces—to determine which provinces are prospective enough to warrant investment. Here we present an objective, repeatable, low-cost method to screen any REE-HFSE province, as a foundation for district-scale investigations or asset evaluations. It is original for REE-HFSE screening, and adapted from regional scale copper, cobalt and petroleum exploration, and CO₂ storage, screening methods. It is centred upon a mineralised province’s favourability for potential value creation, and to identify: (a) its main information gaps; (b) its weakest links; (c) its exploration maturity and remaining potential category; (d) how it compares against other REE-HFSE provinces; and (e) if further investigation is justified. This method incorporates geoscience, strategy, economic and socio-environmental factors in a way that is understandable and directly usable across stakeholder groups. The workflow is systematic, yet flexible enough to accommodate organisation-specific criteria, and usable for other commodities. It provides the platform to build a global REE-HFSE province map and database consistently across national boundaries and organisations. Categories for the extent of province exploration maturity and remaining mineral potential are proposed. We illustrate the applicability of these methods using the Gardar REE-HFSE Province (GRHP) of south Greenland. We conclude that it is a moderate size, frontier province that is currently of questionable favourability for value creation. To move GRHP into a positive favourability class, its current weak links need strengthening by research, government policy and industry stakeholders: evaluate the mineral system; integrate all information geospatially and place it in the public domain; help the region improve some community health and safety issues; convert some mineral resources into an Ore Reserves category; commence mining and sales production.  相似文献   

1990—2018年长沙市土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响     

彭毅  王远超  高阳 《中国地质调查》2021,8(3):72-80

评估生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem Service Values,ESV)有利于衡量生态系统服务供给潜力和生态效益的大小,对城市生态规划与土地利用管控起到重要的支撑作用。选择长沙市为研究区域,基于1990、2000、2010和2018年4期土地利用现状遥感监测数据集,利用ArcGIS软件和经本地化校正的当量因子法,分析1990—2018年间的土地利用变化特征,并探讨土地利用变化对ESV的影响。结果表明: ①1990—2018年长沙市土地利用变化轨迹以耕地→林地互相转化以及建设用地对耕地、林地的侵占为主; ②1990—2018年长沙市的ESV共减少53.17×10⁸ 元,降幅3.59%,除水域外各类ESV均呈下降趋势,林地和耕地服务价值减少最明显; ③在各单项服务功能中,水文调节的价值最大,其次是气候调节,两者之和占总价值的54%; ④“退耕还林”“退田还湖”“兴工强市”等政策引起的土地利用变化势必对ESV造成影响,城市快速扩张、土地开发会导致ESV不断下降。综合分析认为,在调整研究区土地利用结构、优化土地配置时应充分重视水域、林地等生态系统服务价值较高的土地利用类型,减缓ESV的下降趋势。  相似文献   

Development of a snow wetness inversion algorithm using polarimetric scattering power decomposition model     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

In this paper, a new snow wetness estimation model is proposed for full-polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. Surface and volume are the dominant scattering components in wet-snow conditions. The generalized four component polarimetric decomposition with unitary transformation (G4U) based generalized surface and volume parameters are utilized to invert snow surface and volume dielectric constants using the Bragg coefficients and Fresnel transmission coefficients respectively. The snow surface and volume wetness are then estimated using an empirical relationship. The effective snow wetness is derived from the weighted averaged surface and volume snow wetness. The weights are derived from the normalized surface and volume scattering powers obtained from the generalized full-polarimetric SAR decomposition method. Six Radarsat-2 fine resolution full-polarimetric datasets acquired over Himachal Pradesh, India along with the near-real time in situ measurements were used to validate the proposed model. The snow wetness derived from the SAR data by the proposed model with in situ measurements indicated that the absolute error at 95% confidence interval is 1.3% by volume.  相似文献   

轨道交通沿线土地溢价归公的政策与实践——以东莞市为例     

林雄斌  余筱琪  陈伟劲 《热带地理》2019,39(5):732-741

轨道交通周边土地开发和溢价归公有助于缓解城市财政压力,推动公交都市建设。结合国外实施溢价归公的政策和实践模式,以东莞市为例,在资料收集、政策分析、文本和案例解读的基础上,探讨了中国城市政府在规划和建设轨道交通中,以土地溢价归公反哺轨道交通融资的政策安排和实施效果。结果表明：1）溢价归公的本质是以特定方式实现正外部效应的内部化,由于土地制度和税收体系的差异,欧美地区溢价归公主要依赖多样化的土地税收体系,而中国城市的实践主要借鉴了“轨道+物业”的联合开发模式;2）东莞市溢价归公策略的形成是综合开发规划编制和审批、沿线土地控制和储备、土地发展权转移、土地增值分配等核心环节有效协调的结果;3）东莞轨道交通沿线土地开发能形成可观的财政收益,潜在土地收益占轨道资金总需求的比例超过20%,但在实施过程中仍面临较大困难。东莞市案例能为其他城市轨道交通融资、土地开发和溢价归公的政策体系编制和有效实施提供一定的参考。  相似文献   

Research on the Method of De-noising the Short-wave Time Signal at Low SNR     

《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2019,43(4):579-589

A voice enhancement algorithm based on the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and the improved spectral subtraction is proposed for the low-SNR (Signal Noise Ratio) shortwave time signal. This method is proposed to solve the problem that the shortwave time signal cannot be used for timing in complex noisy environments. The core idea of this method is to use the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) algorithm to make the empirical mode decomposition on the noisy shortwave signal, and to select the intrinsic mode functions containing the shortwave signal information for the signal reconstruction by through the maximum correlation. Then, to make the spectral subtraction on the reconstructed signal to achieve the purpose of noise reduction. The experimental result shows that this method has a better noise reduction than the traditional methods.  相似文献   

长江口水下三角洲泥质区近期沉积物粒度变化特征及其影响因素   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

张瑞  汪亚平  高建华  潘少明 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2011,(5):9-16

河口水下三角洲是河流和海洋环境共同作用的产物,沉积地层中蕴藏了许多环境变化信息.在长江口水下三角洲泥质区采集了柱样SC09,首先利用放射性同位素210Pb确定了沉积柱样的平均沉积速率,其次对沉积柱样以0.2 cm间隔进行高分辨率取样,获得了沉积物粒度参数,然后提取了沉积物粒度敏感组分,并对其进行了经验模态分解(EMD)...  相似文献   

经验模态分解方法在树木年轮宽度序列标准化中的应用     

张永 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2015,9(5):9-15

高分辨率的树木年轮是记录历史时期气候变化的良好生物载体,在古气候研究中被广泛应用。但年轮宽度与气候因子之间有着复杂的联系,这种关系受气候因子之间的相互制衡和因物种而异的树木生长节律的共同影响。在利用树木年轮开展历史时期气候变化的研究中,剔除树木年轮与年龄相关的生长趋势是准确获取气候信号的先决条件。然而,传统的和相对改进的一些树轮标准化方法在拟合并剔除树龄相关的趋势及非气候干扰信息方面仍存在一些问题。本文利用经验模态分解(EMD)方法进行树轮资料的标准化方法研究, 对已获得的树轮生长序列所记录的信息进行分解,得到一系列不同物理意义的本征模态分量,结合多样本信息的对比及生物学特性,深入解读各分量表征的气候变化、环境干扰及缓慢生长趋势项等不同物理意义,进而剔除非气候信息,得到可以准确反映气候变化的代用序列,并将该方法与目前广泛采用的标准化方法进行对比,分析不同方法的利弊所在,为进一步改进树轮标准化方法提供新思路。  相似文献