中国省域尺度17部门资本存量的时空特征分析     

刘丽  李宁  张正涛  冯介玲  陈曦  白扣  黄承芳 《地理科学进展》2019,38(4):546-555

随着灾害强度、频率以及承灾体暴露的增加,自然灾害造成的损失日益严重。资本存量作为承灾体的经济暴露指标之一,是灾害损失评估的前提和基础。针对目前中国缺乏省域尺度长时间序列的经济部门分类的资本存量数据基础,论文通过永续盘存法,建立了2003—2015年中国大陆31省17部门的资本存量数据库,并分析其时空特征。结果显示：① 全国总资本存量与灾害直接损失的年际变化均呈增加趋势。省域尺度上,通过相关性分析显示,在99%置信度水平上,两者呈显著正相关(r=0.3)。② 时间上,各省17部门资本存量基本也呈增加趋势,但增速不同。在各部门增速最快的省份中,黑龙江省的居民服务、修理和其他服务业增速最快,增长约454.3倍;其次是青海省的租赁和商务服务业(398.3倍)、江苏省的金融业(295.1倍)、安徽省的科学研究和技术服务业(125.1倍)等。③ 空间上,2015年各省17部门资本存量最多的前4个部门分别是房地产业,工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,水利、环境和公共设施管理业,占比均在60%以上;且这4个部门资本存量暴露最多的省份是江苏省和广东省。该结果有助于从时空角度了解各省各部门资本存量暴露情况,为各省灾害风险管理者的防灾减灾工作提供重要的参考价值。  相似文献   

圆形数值波浪水池斜向和多向入射波浪模拟研究     

任兴月  陶军  彭伟 《海洋工程》2018,36(4):78-87

为了研究斜向入射波浪,基于三维不可压缩两相流模型,开发了一套圆形数值波浪水池数值模型。在圆形波浪水池中,通过源项造波法成功生成了任意入射方向的波浪,并且利用人工摩擦项模拟阻尼区以数值耗散反射波浪。模型基于嵌入式多块网格体系,采用FVM法(finite volume method)离散Navier-Stokes方程,VOF法(volume of fluid)追踪自由水面。试验结果表明,斜向入射波浪的模拟结果与理论值基本一致,圆形波浪水池在模拟斜向入射波浪时,有效区域的面积较传统波浪水池显著增大,而且有效区域受波浪入射角度的影响也较小。同时,通过叠加多列斜向入射波浪,模拟出了多向交叉波列,并通过与理论结果对比,发现其具有较高的精度。  相似文献   

Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff          下载免费PDF全文

Chuan‐An Xia  Juxiu Tong  Bill X. Hu  Xiujie Wu  Alberto Guadagnini 《水文研究》2018,32(20):3140-3157

We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AIC_C] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component.  相似文献   

临沂市温泉（井）成热机制分析及找热方向研究          下载免费PDF全文

王宏雷  祝丽媛 《山东国土资源》2018,34(10)

临沂市地处鲁西隆起南部,地热资源丰富。该文介绍了临沂市的地层、岩浆岩、构造、地热背景、主要控热断裂及20余眼温泉(井)的情况和分布。通过分析汤头温泉、白塔地热井、汤坊崖地热井、铜井地热井、松山地热井、新村地热井、西高都地热井等主要温泉(井)的控热断裂、成热机制,认为该区地热主要分布在沂沭断裂带与NW向深大断裂交会处,地下水补给多沿NW—SE断裂,热源以深大断裂沟通深部热源,水温、水量较好地热井均处在沂沭断裂带沂水-汤头断裂以西的、控热断裂为张性断裂或的张扭性断裂凹陷区内。结合临沂市区域地质构造特点,认为蒙山断裂与鄌郚-葛沟断裂深部交会处,尼山断裂、峄城断裂与鄌郚-葛沟断裂交会处为地热勘探靶区。  相似文献   

剪切波分裂揭示的青藏高原上地壳地震各向异性基本特征          下载免费PDF全文

郭铁龙  高原 《地球物理学报》2020,63(3):1085-1103

青藏高原整体隆升,构造运动与介质变形强烈,然而由于地震观测数据不足,青藏高原内部上地壳各向异性研究一直是一个空白.本研究使用西藏地区的地震台网(2009年5月—2017年5月)的观测资料,利用剪切波分裂研究青藏高原上地壳地震各向异性特征.由于青藏高原固定地震台站分布稀疏,可用于进行剪切波分裂研究的近场地震事件记录稀少,本研究采用地震事件的单台定位技术,对公开的地震目录里没有震源深度数据的地震事件进行震源位置约束,并引入微震模板匹配定位方法,对连续地震波形进行检索,识别出地震目录里遗漏的新的微震(小地震)事件波形.微震识别获得的新地震事件记录是地震目录里报告的地震事件记录的大约6倍,用于补充研究区的剪切波分裂数据分析.通过数据分析,对比快波偏振方向,证实微震识别获得的数据极大地增加了有效数据的数量,提高了结果的可靠性.研究结果表明,雅鲁藏布江缝合带与班公—怒江缝合带之间的拉萨地块东部地区,台站的快剪切波(快波)偏振方向主要受区域应力场影响,快波偏振方向主要是NS或NNE方向,表明了区域最大主压应力方向;但个别地震台站(当雄台)快波偏振方向受原地主压应力影响,其快波偏振方向既不平行于断裂走向也不平行于区域主压应力方向,揭示出地壳介质的局部变形导致的局部应力方向不同于青藏块体里的其他地区.研究区西部的改则、普兰和研究区北部的双湖,快波偏振方向显示与断裂等构造走向一致的特点.研究区东部的昌都和察隅,快波偏振方向除了与断裂走向(或构造线)一致,还与地表运动的方向相同,揭示了青藏块体东部的深部物质可能的运移方向.这个现象虽然还需更多的研究证实,但这个发现的重要启示是,地震各向异性结合地表变形可用于探讨地壳深部物质的运动.  相似文献   

结构震后残余位移研究进展          下载免费PDF全文

刘巴黎  胡进军 《世界地震工程》2020,(3):131-140

结构在强震作用下进入非线性阶段会产生不可恢复的永久位移或残余变形，结构残余位移是震后结构抗震性能和地震损失评估的重要参数，具有重要的理论意义和工程实用价值。为了深入分析残余位移的研究现状，为面向性态抗震设计和抗震韧性评估的地震动强度指标研究提供参考，全面和系统分析了国内外结构残余位移相关文献，介绍了残余位移的定义，重点论述了影响结构残余位移的主要因素，总结归纳了残余位移计算模型、残余位移控制方法及考虑残余位移的抗震性能评估方法，最后讨论了残余位移研究中存在的问题和建议。  相似文献   

基于变化轨迹分析方法的生态用地流失空间关联研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

刘金雅  汪东川  孙然好  汪翡翠  胡炳旭  陈俊合  孙志超 《地理研究》2020,39(1):103-114

针对现有研究割裂了生态用地流失这一基本变化过程的不足,本文基于变化轨迹分析方法,从过程完整性角度探求了京津冀城市群地区生态用地流失的空间关联特征。结果表明：① 京津冀城市群地区土地利用变化主要表现为林地、草地、水域和耕地的流失,流失面积的40%转为人工表面;② 林地、草地和水域流失的空间自相关性随空间尺度增大而增强,7 km×7 km空间尺度上3种生态用地流失空间正相关性较强,且随距离阈值增加而降低;③ 距离阈值为10 km时,林地、草地流失高发区集中分布在京津冀西北部地区,水域流失高发区集中分布在东部渤海湾附近,生态环境保护应从京津冀协同发展角度,打破区域发展不均衡,促进京津冀城市群全面发展。  相似文献   

Partition-coordinated control of soil and water loss for chestnut forests in the Yanshan Mountain Region,China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xinhui Ding  Guangquan Liu  Xiaoying Liu  Yongsheng Xie  Zhichun Yue 《国际泥沙研究》2019,34(1):58-64

Soil erosion from chestnut forests is one of the most important factors causing land degradation in the Yanshan Mountain Region. A 2-year field study was done to compare the effects on erosion of a control plot (CP), a repaired and maintained horizontal ditch built with an engineering baffle every 6?m (MP 1), and a repaired and maintained horizontal ditch built with an engineering baffle every 8?m (MP 2). The results showed that the slope runoff of chestnut forests was influenced by rainfall characteristic factors. No single rainfall characteristic factor showed dominance for hill slope runoff. The runoff reduction effect of the partition-coordinated erosion control measures (MP 1 and MP 2) was substantial for chestnut forests under high rainfall intensity conditions. However, the runoff reduction efficiency was higher under the conditions of heavy rainfall and low average rainfall intensity than for storms with higher intensity and lower total rainfall. The reduction effect of the partition-coordinated erosion control measures on the runoff and sediment yield of chestnut forest slopes was MP 2 > MP 1 > CP. The runoff reduction rate and erosion reduction rate of MP 2 reached 61.70% and 97.41%, respectively, and that for MP 1 was 54.15% and 85.31%, respectively. Therefore, after a comprehensive comparison, MP 2 was determined to be more effective for soil erosion control for a sloping chestnut forest.  相似文献   

Effects of rainfall patterns on runoff and rainfall-induced erosion   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Morteza Alavinia  Farzin Nasiri Saleh  Hossain Asadi 《国际泥沙研究》2019,34(3):270-278

Rainfall-induced erosion involves the detachment of soil particles by raindrop impact and their transport by the combined action of the shallow surface runoff and raindrop impact. Although temporal variation in rainfall intensity (pattern) during natural rainstorms is a common phenomenon, the available information is inadequate to understand its effects on runoff and rainfall-induced erosion processes. To address this issue, four simulated rainfall patterns (constant, increasing, decreasing, and increasing - decreasing) with the same total kinetic energy were designed. Two soil types (sandy and sandy loam) were subjected to simulated rainfall using 15?cm × 30?cm long detachment trays under infiltration conditions. For each simulation, runoff and sediment concentration were sampled at regular intervals. No obvious difference was observed in runoff across the two soil types, but there were significant differences in soil losses among the different rainfall patterns and stages. For varying-intensity rainfall patterns, the dominant sediment transport mechanism was not only influenced by raindrop detachment but also was affected by raindrop-induced shallow flow transport. Moreover, the efficiency of equations that predict the interrill erosion rate increased when the integrated raindrop impact and surface runoff rate were applied. Although the processes of interrill erosion are complex, the findings in this study may provide useful insight for developing models that predict the effects of rainfall pattern on runoff and erosion.  相似文献   

GIS‐based modelling of soil erosion processes using the modified‐MMF (MMMF) model in a large watershed having vast agro‐climatological differences          下载免费PDF全文

Pratiksha Jain  RAAJ Ramsankaran 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(10):2064-2076

The present study demonstrates a spatially distributed application of a field‐scale annual soil loss model, the modified‐MMF (MMMF), to a large watershed using hydrological routing techniques, remote sensing data and geospatial technologies. In this study, the MMMF model is implemented after incorporating the corrections suggested in recent literature along with appropriate modifications of the model to suit the agro‐climatological conditions prevailing in most parts of India. Sensitivity analysis carried out through an Average Linear Sensitivity approach indicates that the model outputs are highly sensitive to soil moisture (MS), bulk density (BD), effective hydraulic depth (EHD), ground cover (GC) and settling velocity for clay (VS_c). During calibration and validation, the performance evaluation statistics are mostly in the range of very good to satisfactory for both runoff and soil loss at the watershed outlet. Even spatial validation of the results of intermediate processes in the water phase and the sediment phase, although qualitative, seems to be reasonable and rational. Furthermore, the soil erosion severity analysis for different land‐uses existing in the watershed indicates that about 90% of the watershed area, especially that occupied by agricultural lands, is vulnerable to the long‐term effects of soil erosion. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献