排序方式： 共有39条查询结果，搜索用时 14 毫秒
1.
非平稳条件下北京市最大月降水量频率特征分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
为探究气候变化下极端降水的频率变化特征,基于北京市22个雨量站实测月降水量数据,以时间为协变量构建平稳和非平稳GEV模型,对北京市最大月降水量序列(极值降水序列)进行模拟和频率分析,并采用Bootstrap方法对频率分析结果的不确定性进行评价。结果表明:所有极值降水序列的最优概率分布模型均为非平稳GEV模型,该模型能够抓住序列随时间呈显著下降趋势的变化特征;由非平稳GEV模型估算得到的极值降水重现水平随时间呈减少趋势,这意味着未来极值降水导致洪涝灾害的风险在降低,但导致干旱的风险将增加;随着重现期的增加,极值降水重现水平估计值的不确定性也随之增大。 相似文献
2.
Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction. 相似文献
3.
ME／EXOSAT银道扫描数据的直接解调成像 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
利用对象重建的直接解调方法，我们对EXOSAT卫星ME探测器银道扫描观测数据进行了重新分析，研究了在以往的分析中难以分辨的几个天区中的分立X射线源．利用Bootstrap方法，我们对成像结果进行了统计误差分析，给出了点源位置和流强的误差． 相似文献
4.
Logistic判别模型在强降水预报中的应用 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
利用Logistiv判别模型进行强降水预报,并设计3种方案进行对比分析。方案1直接使用14个影响因子进行判别预报,受因子共线性作用及噪音信号影响,虽然拟合效果较好,但预报效果明显下降。方案2对14个影响因子进行主成分分析,利用前6个主成分建模,虽然拟合效果较方案1降低,但由于消除了因子共线性作用以及噪音信号影响,预报效果较方案1提高。方案3运用Bootstrap抽样技术得到符干样本并建模计算模型参数,打乱了原有时间序列中的波动,仪保留平稳信息,拟合自由度进一步降低,导致拟合效果较方案案2下降,但预报效果却是3种方案中最好且最稳定的。在上述研究基础上,利用欧洲中心数值预报模式的预报场资料,建立基于Logistic判别模型的强降水客观预报系统,并在中央气象台业务运行。2013和2014年连续两年汛期预报检验结果表明,概模型对强降水预报的TS评分高于数值模式本身,具有一定的业务参考价值。 相似文献
5.
A statistical study of the dependence between various critical fusion temperatures of a certain kind ofcoal and its chemical components is carried out.As well as using classical dependence techniques(multiple,stepwise and PLS regression,principal components,canonical correlation,etc.)together withthe corresponding inference on the parameters of interest,non-parametric regression and bootstrapinference are also performed. 相似文献
6.
Stefan Stange 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(2):247-257
A method for the determination of consistent local magnitude M
L values (Richter scale, or M
WA) for earthquakes with epicentral distances ranging from 10 km through 1000 km is demonstrated. The raw data consists of nearly 1300 amplitude readings from a network of six digital seismographs in Baden–Württemberg (Southwestern Germany) during 26 months starting in 1995, later extended by another 1000 amplitude readings until 1999. Relying on most of the basics introduced by C.F. Richter a three-parameter attenuation curve (distance correction, magnitude-distance relation) for Baden–Württemberg and adjacent areas is presented. Station corrections are evaluated and the attenuation curve is calibrated with respect to other agencies for distances greater than 650 km. Reasonable parametrisations are discussed and meaningful error bars are attributed. Finally, a seventh station is incorporated by means of its station correction alone, without needing to update the attenuation curve. 相似文献
7.
It is generally accepted that both deterministic and statistical approaches are useful for the characterization of earthquake hazard. Although the most reliable estimates of seismic hazard can only be based on an improved understanding of the earthquake mechanism, efficient utilization of the appropriate methods provided by recent statistical theories is also important in seismic risk analysis. This is especially true in regions where the connection between seismicity and geologic structure is tenuous at best. We are particularly interested in developing better statistical treatments of data for regions with little known seismic activity. To this end, we have applied three statistical methods to the historical record of seismicity in relatively quiet regions of eastern North America. These are: (1) the threshold method for tail inference, a new theory for modeling earthquakes with sizes above a given threshold, (2) the ‘bootstrap’ technique in which the characteristics of an unknown population are simulated by replacing the true population by an estimated one, and (3) a technique to estimate the number of earthquakes below a given size, in order to compensate for the under-reporting of small earthquakes in most catalogs. A combination of these techniques has been used to estimate the probabilities of future large earthquakes for the regions studied. Because of limitations imposed by existing catalogs, the size estimate used has been maximum intensity. 相似文献
8.
采用基于近远震波形的CAPjoint 方法,对2013 年3 月27 日台湾南投MW6. 0 地震分别进行了单独反演和联合反演,获得了各自的震源机制解及震源深度。其中,联合反演所得的最优双力偶机制解参数为,节面Ⅰ:方位角0°,倾角30°,滑动角78°;节面Ⅱ:方位角193°,倾角60°,滑动角96°;震源深度18km。为了验证联合反演的有效性和可靠性,采用由重抽样理论发展而来的Bootstrap 方法,对近远震数据分别进行了重采样,并对其单独反演和联合反演所得的参数进行了统计,验证了联合反演的有效性及稳定性,并发现远震反演震源深度的结果一定程度上受台站分布的影响,若要获得精确的震源深度则需要方位角分布较好的远震台站记录。根据前人对集集地震及车笼埔断层的研究成果以及南投地震的发震断层性质接近车笼埔断层的认识,推测此次地震可能发生在车笼埔断层上。 相似文献
9.
小样本容量岩土体参数最优联合概率分布模型的识别是一个富有挑战性的问题。基于Bootstrap提出了小样本容量岩土体参数最优边缘分布函数和最优Copula函数识别方法。简要介绍了岩土体参数联合概率分布函数构造的Copula方法,采用AIC准则识别最优的边缘分布函数和Copula函数。将识别结果表示为不同备选边缘分布函数和Copula函数为最优边缘分布和最优Copula的权重系数集合,以基桩荷载-位移双曲线参数试验数据为例证明了所提方法的有效性。结果表明：基于小样本容量岩土体参数试验数据估计的样本均值、标准差和相关系数具有较大的离散性,这种离散性进一步导致了统计量AIC值存在较大变异性。提出的基于Bootstrap的最优边缘分布函数和最优Copula函数识别方法不仅可以有效地考虑统计量AIC值的变异性,而且能够综合地反映不同备选边缘分布函数和Copula函数为最优边缘分布和最优Copula函数的概率,为小样本容量岩土体参数最优边缘分布函数和最优Copula函数的识别提供了一条有效的途径。 相似文献
10.