Machine learning for pore-water pressure time-series prediction: Application of recurrent neural networks     

Xin Wei  Lulu Zhang  Hao-Qing Yang  Limin Zhang  Yang-Ping Yao 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(1):453-467

Knowledge of pore-water pressure(PWP)variation is fundamental for slope stability.A precise prediction of PWP is difficult due to complex physical mechanisms and in situ natural variability.To explore the applicability and advantages of recurrent neural networks(RNNs)on PWP prediction,three variants of RNNs,i.e.,standard RNN,long short-term memory(LSTM)and gated recurrent unit(GRU)are adopted and compared with a traditional static artificial neural network(ANN),i.e.,multi-layer perceptron(MLP).Measurements of rainfall and PWP of representative piezometers from a fully instrumented natural slope in Hong Kong are used to establish the prediction models.The coefficient of determination(R^2)and root mean square error(RMSE)are used for model evaluations.The influence of input time series length on the model performance is investigated.The results reveal that MLP can provide acceptable performance but is not robust.The uncertainty bounds of RMSE of the MLP model range from 0.24 kPa to 1.12 k Pa for the selected two piezometers.The standard RNN can perform better but the robustness is slightly affected when there are significant time lags between PWP changes and rainfall.The GRU and LSTM models can provide more precise and robust predictions than the standard RNN.The effects of the hidden layer structure and the dropout technique are investigated.The single-layer GRU is accurate enough for PWP prediction,whereas a double-layer GRU brings extra time cost with little accuracy improvement.The dropout technique is essential to overfitting prevention and improvement of accuracy.  相似文献   

丽江-小金河断裂全新世滑动速率研究     

郜宇  丁锐  张世民  任俊杰 《震灾防御技术》2019,14(3):617-627

丽江-小金河断裂与锦屏山断裂共同控制着青藏高原东南边界，研究该断裂的滑动速率有助于理解青藏高原东南缘区域变形模式。本文通过高分辨率遥感影像解译与野外地质调查，发现该断裂错断了一系列河流阶地与洪积扇，且以左旋走滑为主兼具倾滑分量。通过无人机断错地貌测量与碳同位素断代，获得红星-尖山营断裂段全新世左旋走滑速率为（3.32±0.22）mm/a，垂直滑动速率为（0.35±0.02）mm/a；汝南-南溪断裂段北支全新世左旋走滑速率为（2.37±0.20）mm/a。  相似文献   

涉县盆地控盆构造晚第四纪活动特征     

蒋云锋  周月玲  郭秋娜  张征宇 《中国地震》2020,36(3):460-468

涉县断裂为太行山隆起区内涉县盆地的控盆构造,走向由NE转为近EW向,倾向NW/N,中部在井店东被EW向断裂错断,是控制涉县盆地的一组断裂。本文采用地质地貌调查、河流阶地分析和地质测年等方法,研究了涉县断裂晚第四纪活动特征。研究发现,涉县断裂带由多组断裂构成,带宽约200m,在清漳河两侧表现为山前的陡崖地貌、基岩破碎变形带,具有正断兼走滑特征,在基岩变形带上部发育走向NNE向和NWW向次级滑动面,次级滑动面错断第四系黄土,最新活动到晚更新世;断裂在盆地区通过,地表形成低缓陡坎,断裂错断Q2-3地层,表现为上陡下缓的正断层。通过对涉县断裂两侧清漳河河流阶地、夷平面和地层年龄综合分析,估算涉县断裂晚更新世以来平均垂直滑动速率为0.06～0.08mm/a,中更新世以来平均垂直滑动速率为0.22～0.34mm/a,垂直差异活动主要发生于中更新世期间。  相似文献   

Simplified multi-block constitutive model predicting earthquake-induced landslide triggering and displacement along slip surfaces of saturated sand     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2014

Slopes consisting of saturated sand have recently moved down-slope tens or hundreds of meters under the action of earthquakes. This paper presents a simplified but accurate method predicting the triggering and displacement of such landslides. For this purpose, a simplified constitutive model simulating soil response of saturated sands along slip surfaces is proposed and validated. Then, this constitutive model is coupled with the multi-block sliding system model to predict the triggering and displacement of such slides. The multi-block model considers a general mass sliding on a trajectory which consists of n linear segments. The steps needed to apply this method are described in detail. The method was applied successfully to predict the triggering, the motion and the final configuration of the well-documented (a) Higashi Takezawa, (b) Donghekou and (c) Nikawa earthquake-induced slides.  相似文献   

甘孜-玉树断裂带晚第四纪走滑速率与滑动分解作用     

吕丽星  李传友  魏占玉  董金元  谭锡斌  石峰  苏鹏 《震灾防御技术》2017,12(3):456-468

滑动速率是研究断裂运动学特征、地震活动性和区域应变分配的重要参数和依据。前人关于甘孜-玉树断裂带滑动速率的研究结果存在较大差异，因此，其晚第四纪滑动速率有待进一步调查研究。本文基于卫星影像解译和野外实地考察，对甘孜-玉树断裂带西段（玉树断裂）上典型断错地貌点进行测量分析，得到玉树断裂晚第四纪走滑速率为6.6±0.1-7.4±1.2mm/a。通过与前人对甘孜-玉树断裂带东段（甘孜断裂）滑动速率的研究结果进行对比，发现甘孜-玉树断裂带东、西段滑动速率不一致，其原因是甘孜断裂的左旋滑移在向西传递的过程中，一部分应变被分配到了巴塘盆地南缘断裂上。巴塘盆地南缘断裂的存在很好地解释了玉树断裂的走滑速率比甘孜断裂偏低的原因。但是，从区域变形来看，巴塘盆地南缘断裂分配的滑动速率恰好说明了甘孜-玉树断裂带东、西段及鲜水河断裂带的水平构造变形是协调一致的。  相似文献   

Late Quaternary Slip Rate of the Xiugou Segment,Eastern Kunlun Fault Zone   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Feipeng Huang  Junjie Ren  Yanwu Lü  Junxiang Zhao 《地球科学进展》2018,33(3):321-332

The Eastern Kunlun fault zone (EKLF) is a large left-lateral strike-slip fault, whose slip rate is meaningful to seismic hazard assessment and geodynamics of the Tibetan Plateau. Previous studies suggested that the late Quaternary average slip rate was stable and uniform (10~13 mm/a) in the central and western segment of the EKLF. But there were a few researches of accurate slip rate in the central segment on the EKLF. Therefore, we focused on an offset and well preserved alluvial fan from Xiugou basin, located in the east of Xidatan-Dongdatan, to make it clear. Moreover, we used high-resolution satellite images and digital elevation model extracted from SPOT7 stereo image pairs to restore the offset alluvial fan, and combined terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides method, including 13 quartz-rich samples from this fan surface, 1 quartz-rich sample from the main active channel bed and 1 ¹⁰Be depth profile from this fan edge to eliminate the ¹⁰Be concentration of inheritance accurately, with 1 optically stimulated luminescence sample to obtain the reliable age of this alluvial fan together. Referring to field observations, this alluvial fan was offset left-laterally by (1 862±103) m, and its age is (76.55±3.20)~(106.37±3.38) ka which can be determined through the actual geologic setting and improving chi-square test. Thus, we used the Monte Carlo method to obtain a left-lateral slip rate of (20.3+3.5/-2.3) mm/a with 68% confidence envelopes since the late Pleistocene in the Xiugou basin. As a result, combining with the results of previous studies, the left-lateral slip rate indicated that the obviously decreasing activity transferred from late Pleistocene to Holocene on the central segment of the EKLF.  相似文献   

Neotectonic transpressional intraplate deformation in eastern Eurasia: Insights from active fault systems in the southeastern Korean Peninsula     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2023,14(4):101559

Transpression occurs in response to oblique convergence across a deformation zone in intraplate regions and plate boundaries. The Korean Peninsula is located at an intraplate region of the eastern Eurasian Plate and has been deformed under the ENE–WSW maximum horizontal compression since the late Pliocene. In this study, we analyzed short-term instrumental seismic (focal mechanism) and long-term paleoseismic (Quaternary fault outcrop) data to decipher the neotectonic crustal deformation pattern in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. Available (paleo-)seismic data acquired from an NNE–SSW trending deformation zone between the Yangsan and Ulleung fault zones indicate spatial partitioning of crustal deformation by NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW striking reverse faults and NNE–SSW striking strike-slip faults, supporting a strike-slip partitioned transpression model. The instantaneous and finite neotectonic strains, estimated from the focal mechanism and Quaternary outcrop data, respectively, show discrepancies in their axes, which can be attributed to the switching between extensional and intermediate axes of finite strain during the accumulation of wrench-dominated transpression. Notably, some major faults, including the Yangsan and Ulsan fault zones, are relatively misoriented to slip under the current stress condition but, paradoxically, have more (paleo-)seismic records indicating their role in accommodating the neotectonic transpressional strain. We propose that fluids, heat flow, and lithospheric structure are potential factors affecting the reactivation of the relatively misoriented major faults. Our findings provide insights into the accommodation pattern of strain associated with the neotectonic crustal extrusion in an intraplate region of the eastern Eurasian Plate in response to the collision of the Indian Plate and the subduction of the Pacific/Philippine Sea Plates.  相似文献   

利用区域宽频地震数据反演2021年5月云南漾濞M_S6.4地震震源破裂过程     

朱音杰  罗艳  赵里  田建慧 《地球物理学报》2022,(3)

本文基于有限断层模型反演方法,利用区域宽频带数据反演了2021年5月云南漾濞M_S6.4地震的震源破裂过程,结果显示:此次地震的发震断层走向为SE向,主要以右旋走滑为主.破裂主要发生在震源东南侧,最大错动量约为0.55 m,位于深度约9 km处,发生明显破裂的深度约达13 km.此次地震释放的标量地震矩为1.48×10¹⁸N·m,相当于矩震级M_W6.05.地震能量主要在前11 s释放.在深度为6~8 km处破裂速度有明显的变快,可能加剧了地表的震动.  相似文献   

Slip line theory applied to a retaining wall–unsaturated soil interaction problem     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2014

An extension of slip line theory to unsaturated soils is presented and applied to the problem of a rigid retaining wall rotating about its toe into unsaturated soils. Suction is introduced using the effective stress concept. Soil–wall interface friction is defined carefully. The influence of suction on limiting passive earth pressures is analysed for two soils under steady state evaporation and infiltration. Suction increases the limiting passive stress at the soil–wall interface, with a dependence on the steady state flow type. The displacement of the retained soil is studied assuming the wall undergoes a rotation increment. The results show a clear difference in the displacement for evaporation and infiltration.  相似文献   

抗滑桩在某滑坡治理中的应用研究     

高文信 《云南地质》2014,(2):264-267

通过对某龙江电站坝址左岸一滑坡进行分析、评价,经综合比较,确定抗滑桩治理方案,并对抗滑桩进行优化设计,保证了工程质量,节省了投资.  相似文献