基于小波变换与神经网络的石羊河流域夏季地温预测模型研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

贾东于  李开明  聂晓英  袁春霞  李清峰  高福元 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):412-422

地温变化在气候反馈效应中起着重要作用， 理解地温及其与影响因素之间的时空关系对预测全球温度变化至关重要。利用1998 - 2017年石羊河流域的逐日常规气象观测资料， 采用小波分析结合BP（Back Propagation）神经网络构建了石羊河流域夏季地温预报模型， 结果表明： 日平均地温预测效果在不同站点均为最佳， 其中预测值和观测值的相关系数均大于0.87， 3 ℃以内的预测概率均大于84%。其中， 民勤地区地温预测效果最好， 预测值和观测值的相关系数达到0.91， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到86%。日最高地温的预测值与观测值的相关系数高于0.8， 但误差平方和、 标准差较大。永昌地区日最高地温的模拟效果最好， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到83%。日最低地温的预测与观测值的平均相关系数高于0.66， 3 ℃以内的预报概率高于83%， 但预测值略低。其中， 武威地区日最低地温的预测效果最好， 预测值与观测值的相关系数为0.72， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到94%。研究成果可为有效弥补干旱、 半干旱区地温观测资料缺失和探讨其与局地气候的关系提供一些参考。  相似文献   

准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲优质储集层预测          下载免费PDF全文

桑林翔  刘军  王贵文  王苏天  李全  张云龙 《古地理学报》2020,22(6):1053-1064

针对准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡风南地区三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲砂岩物性空间变化大、优质储集层(孔隙度大于7.4%,渗透率大于0.05×10^-3μm²)预测难的问题,在沉积岩石学、地震沉积学以及地震反演和解释理论指导下,综合利用测井、岩心和三维地震等资料开展了高精度层序地层划分、沉积微相描述和优质储集层地震反演研究。建立了风南井区四级层序地层格架,明确了扇三角洲多期水进水退的充填过程,指出SSQ3和SSQ5是优质储集层的发育层系;识别出扇三角洲平原分流河道、河道间和扇三角洲前缘水下分流水道、河口坝、席状砂等沉积微相,指出扇三角洲平原是优质储集层发育相带;通过应用高分辨层序地层纵向边界和沉积相横向边界约束,进行分层相控叠后地震波阻抗反演,提升储集层预测精度,在SSQ3和SSQ5预测5个优质储集层发育区,提出3口井的井位建议,钻探均获工业油流。  相似文献   

贵州苗匡热矿水地热区水化学特征及热储条件分析     

杨晓飞 《地质与勘探》2020,56(1):94-101

贵州苗匡热矿水地热区大地构造位于江南复合造山黔南坳陷铜仁复式褶皱变形带,区域构造为红石古断裂带与苗匡断裂交汇锐角区,区内出露的地层有前南华系板溪群、南华系、震旦系、寒武系;热矿水水化学类型为HCO_3-Na型,含高氟、锶、锂、偏硅酸;弱碱性水;呈带状中低温热储;区域大地热流供给热量;地下热矿水补给为构造破碎带深远程补给;区域性红石活动断裂带具有导热导水储水性,热矿水被温差、压力差等驱动循环运移至断裂破碎带富集,苗匡次级断裂带在该热储起到连通传导作用;热矿水井口温度45℃,出水量560 m~3/d。研究结果可对该区热矿水勘查开发及利用提供参考和借鉴。  相似文献   

Effect of Shale Reservoir Characteristics on Shale Oil Movability in the Lower Third Member of the Shahejie Formation,Zhanhua Sag     

NING Chuanxiang  MA Zhongliang  JIANG Zhenxue  SU Siyuan  LI Tingwei  ZHENG Lunju  WANG Guozhen  LI Fengxun 《《地质学报》英文版》2020,94(2):352-363

To reveal the effect of shale reservoir characteristics on the movability of shale oil and its action mechanism in the lower third member of the Shahejie Formation(Es3l), samples with different features were selected and analyzed using N2 adsorption, high-pressure mercury injection capillary pressure(MICP), nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR), high-speed centrifugation, and displacement image techniques. The results show that shale pore structure characteristics control shale oil movability directly. Movable oil saturation has a positive relationship with pore volume for radius > 2 μm, as larger pores often have higher movable oil saturation, indicating that movable oil is present in relatively larger pores. The main reasons for this are as follows. The relatively smaller pores often have oil-wetting properties because of organic matter, which has an unfavorable effect on the flow of oil, while the relatively larger pores are often wetted by water, which is helpful to shale oil movability. The rich surface provided by the relatively smaller pores is beneficial to the adsorption of immovable oil. Meanwhile, the relatively larger pores create significant pore volume for movable oil. Moreover, the larger pores often have good pore connectivity. Pores and fractures are interconnected to form a complex fracture network, which provides a good permeability channel for shale oil flow. The smaller pores are mostly distributed separately;thus, they are not conducive to the flow of shale oil. The mineral composition and fabric macroscopically affect the movability of shale oil. Calcite plays an active role in shale oil movability by increasing the brittleness of shale and is more likely to form micro-cracks under the same stress background. Clay does not utilize shale oil flow because of its large specific surface area and its block effect. The bedding structure increases the large-scale storage space and improves the connectivity of pores at different scales, which is conducive to the movability of shale oil.  相似文献   

非典型周期和气候突变的识别与判定          下载免费PDF全文

秦建国 《水文》2020,40(1):23-28

通过两种新方法分析了无锡站降水年际变化的突变性、周期性等特征,揭示了旱涝演化的自然规律。研究表明,1934、1978、2013年是我国近现代气候突变的临界点,这是旱涝演化的自然选择;无锡站年际降水的观测历史可分成四个特征不同的时段,每个时段节点对应的都是一次气候突变;气候突变会改变年际降水序列的一致性,分段法研究可以大幅度降低模拟难度、提高预测效率。发现并确认了3个气候突变点,实现了超长缺测中断期(13a)旱涝趋势的精确插补,完成了无锡站近百年降雨序列的周期性分析与旱涝趋势预测模拟,研究成果改变了近现代气候历史无法细分的现状。  相似文献   

海拉尔—塔木察格盆地中部富油凹陷高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层成因及油气勘探意义     

蒙启安  李军辉  李跃  邹越 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2020,50(2):569-578

海拉尔—塔木察格盆地中部富油凹陷下白垩统铜钵庙组和南屯组广泛发育高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层，并已于其中获得了工业突破，但对其成因机制认识不清。在岩心、薄片、录井和测井等资料综合研究的基础上，结合大量海拉尔—塔木察格盆地及周边地区的火山事件分析，认为中部富油凹陷发育的高含凝灰质碎屑岩的岩石类型主要包括凝灰质砂岩、凝灰质泥岩、凝灰岩和沉凝灰岩。不同时期、不同凹陷高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层发育特点各异，整体来看从铜钵庙组到南屯组储层中的凝灰质含量越来越低，高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层主要发育在铜钵庙组和南一段沉积时期。高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层中的火山物质并非来源于自身断陷期发生的基性火山活动，而是来自于大兴安岭地区大规模的酸性火山喷发事件。海拉尔—塔木察格盆地高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层的成因机制包括两种类型：一种是同沉积期火山灰直接空降入湖型；另一种是同沉积期火山灰先沉降至陆上经河流搬运后再沉积的水携型。高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层中的火山碎屑物质受有机酸作用易于溶蚀，次生孔隙发育，为深部油气成藏提供了有效储层空间，并且火山喷发活动对优质烃源岩的形成具有促进作用，对于油气勘探具有重要意义。  相似文献   

山东大尹格庄金矿床深部三维定量成矿预测     

陈进  毛先成  邓浩 《地球学报》2020,41(2):179-191

大尹格庄金矿是胶西北招平断裂带中段的大型金矿床,但随着逐渐的开采其保有资源量不断下降,急需在矿床的深边部区域开展接续资源找矿工作。本文以大尹格庄金矿为研究对象,以区域成矿理论和找矿勘查模型为指导,利用三维地质建模技术构建了相关地质体的三维模型,在此基础上,采用定量化的方法提取地质体与成矿相关的控矿因素指标和矿化指标,并建立了三维定量成矿预测模型,并应用该模型圈定了3个找矿靶区。研究表明,该方法能够适用于大中型矿山的深边部找矿工作,其三维及定量化的预测结果能够为后续的勘探及开采工作提供重要参考。  相似文献   

微生物勘探技术在潮汕坳陷油气勘探中的应用初探     

赵忠泉  孙鸣  万晓明  陈胜红  赵静  宋立军  李辉  强昆生  梁永兴 《中国地质》2020,47(3):645-654

东沙海域潮汕坳陷中生界研究程度相对较低,油气分布规律不明,为了加强对该区油气分布和富集规律的研究,针对潮汕坳陷西部地质目标首次应用微生物地球化学勘探技术(MGCE),探讨其含油气性。MGCE技术以轻烃微渗漏理论为基础,采用地质微生物学方法和地球化学方法检测研究区海底表层的微生物异常和吸附烃异常,预测研究区下伏地层中油气的富集区及其油气性质。检测结果显示研究区西部凹陷的斜坡区微生物异常呈块状发育,轻烃微渗漏强度变化大,可能为潜在油气富集区,酸解吸附烃成果显示可能的油气性质为干气和凝析油气。  相似文献   

Facies and sequence stratigraphic architecture of the Mural Limestone (Albian), Arizona: Carbonate response to global and local factors and implications for reservoir characterization     

Rachel Aisner-Williams  Charles Kerans 《Sedimentology》2020,67(7):3735-3768

This study documents the detailed facies and sequence stratigraphic architecture of a multi-cyclic patch-reef and its associated ramp interior facies that formed during Oceanic Anoxic Event 1b in the Mural Limestone, Arizona, USA. Ramp interior facies are comprised of bedded wackestone/packstone, rudist build-up and coral–algal patch-reef facies located north of Bisbee, Arizona, at the Grassy Hill locality. The larger multi-cyclic patch-reef that developed coevally ca 5 km to the south of Grassy Hill consists of a high-angle windward margin with a narrow ca 70 m long reef frame containing vertically zonated Microsolena, Actinastrea, diverse branching coral and rudist assemblages, and an 870 m long low-angle leeward margin comprised of reef debris rudstone and grainstone shoal facies. Similar reef geomorphology and orientation is documented across the Gulf of Mexico and reflects the shelf-wide north to north-east-trending prevailing wind and current energies. Controls affecting reef formation and growth patterns include changes in accommodation space associated with low-amplitude global sea-level rise and regional thermotectonic subsidence, local accommodation space and nutrient fluctuations associated with the inner shelf depositional setting within a humid and siliciclastic-rich environment. Four aggradational to retrogradational high-frequency sequences are documented in Arizona: High-frequency sequences 1 and 2 represent the first pulse of patch-reef development in an overall second-order marine transgression over the Sonora/Bisbee Shelf. These sequences correlate to δ¹³C signatures associated with Oceanic Anoxic Event 1b across the Gulf of Mexico and suggest that carbonate reefs persisted on the ramp interior during this time. High-frequency sequences 3 and 4 record a second brief transgression and backstepping of reef facies followed by the final regression of shallow shelf carbonates that correlates to more robust patch-reef development in Sonora, Mexico. The patch-reef at Paul Spur is an excellent outcrop analogue for productive patch-reefs in the Maverick Basin (Comanche Shelf) of Texas. Detailed facies mapping of this outcrop analogue shows that the greatest reservoir potential is contained within the backreef grainstone shoals where primary porosity of up to 15% is observed.  相似文献   

Robust numerical implementation of a 3D rate-dependent model for reservoir geomechanical simulations     

Giovanni Isotton  Pietro Teatini  Massimiliano Ferronato  Carlo Janna  Nicolò Spiezia  Stefano Mantica  Giorgio Volonte 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(18):2752-2771

A 3D elasto-plastic rate-dependent model for rock mechanics is formulated and implemented into a Finite Element (FE) numerical code. The model is based on the approach proposed by Vermeer and Neher (A soft soil model that accounts for creep. In: Proceedings of the International Symposium “Beyond 2000 in Computational Geotechnics,” pages 249-261, 1999). An original strain-driven algorithm with an Inexact Newton iterative scheme is used to compute the state variables for a given strain increment.The model is validated against laboratory measurements, checked on a simplified test case, and used to simulate land subsidence due to groundwater and hydrocarbon production. The numerical results prove computationally effective and robust, thus allowing for the use of the model on real complex geological settings.  相似文献