非典型周期和气候突变的识别与判定          下载免费PDF全文

秦建国 《水文》2020,40(1):23-28

通过两种新方法分析了无锡站降水年际变化的突变性、周期性等特征,揭示了旱涝演化的自然规律。研究表明,1934、1978、2013年是我国近现代气候突变的临界点,这是旱涝演化的自然选择;无锡站年际降水的观测历史可分成四个特征不同的时段,每个时段节点对应的都是一次气候突变;气候突变会改变年际降水序列的一致性,分段法研究可以大幅度降低模拟难度、提高预测效率。发现并确认了3个气候突变点,实现了超长缺测中断期(13a)旱涝趋势的精确插补,完成了无锡站近百年降雨序列的周期性分析与旱涝趋势预测模拟,研究成果改变了近现代气候历史无法细分的现状。  相似文献   

黄河干流头道拐河段凌汛期小流量过程变化及其影响因素研究     

全栋  李超  路新川  史小红  杨朝霞 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):620-628

黄河干流内蒙古段河道冬季流凌封河期， 河道水量除一部分转化为冰量外， 很大一部分转化为槽蓄水量而贮存在河道中， 导致下游头道拐河段出现小流量过程， 上游河道流量转化为槽蓄水量和贮存的冰量越大， 小流量持续时间越长， 开河期发生凌汛洪水风险越高。通过对1998 - 2016年头道拐站凌讯期流量变化过程分析， 重新界定了小流量上限阈值为330 m³·s^-1， 并且以此值为标准进行小流量过程研究， 分别采用R/S极差分析法、 Fourier变换分析法对近年来小流量过程变化特征进行分析； 结合非线性概率Logit模型和Probit模型对小流量过程的影响因素进行讨论。结果表明： 小流量持续天数变化呈现缩短趋势； 同时， 小流量过程与上游相对来水之间变化关系显著且过程同步， 而滞后于河道槽蓄水量变化过程； 通过Logit模型和Probit模型分析各影响因素变化时相应小流量持续时间变化的响应概率大小， 明确河道冰流量是小流量过程第一影响因素， 气温条件是小流量过程的决定因素， 首封位置和相对来水量是小流量过程重要影响因素。  相似文献   

Phase equilibrium modelling of the amphibolite to granulite facies transition in metabasic rocks (Ivrea Zone,NW Italy)     

Barbara E. Kunz  Richard W. White 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2019,37(7):935-950

The development of thermodynamic models for tonalitic melt and the updated clinopyroxene and amphibole models now allow the use of phase equilibrium modelling to estimate P–T conditions and melt production for anatectic mafic and intermediate rock types at high‐T conditions. The Permian mid‐lower crustal section of the Ivrea Zone preserves a metamorphic field gradient from mid amphibolite facies to granulite facies, and thus records the onset of partial melting in metabasic rocks. Interlayered metabasic and metapelitic rocks allows the direct comparison of P–T estimates and partial melting between both rock types with the same metamorphic evolution. Pseudosections for metabasic compositions calculated in the Na₂O–CaO–K₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–TiO₂–O (NCKFMASHTO) system are presented and compared with those of metapelitic rocks calculated with consistent end‐member data and a–x models. The results presented in this study show that P–T conditions obtained by phase equilibria modelling of both metabasic and metapelitic rocks give consistent results within uncertainties, allowing integration of results obtained for both rock types. In combination, the calculations for both metabasic and metapelitic rocks allows an updated and more precisely constrained metamorphic field gradient for Val Strona di Omegna to be defined. The new field gradient has a slightly lower dP/dT which is in better agreement with the onset of crustal thinning of the Adriatic margin during the Permian inferred in recent studies.  相似文献   

Obtaining the distribution of quiescent periods directly from the power spectral densities of Sea waves     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

There is a growing practical interest in the ability to increase the sea states at which marine operations can be safely undertaken by exploiting the quiescent periods that are well known to exist under a wide range of sea conditions. While the actual prediction of quiescent periods at sea for the control of operations is a deterministic process, the long term planning of future maritime tasks that rely on these quiescent periods is a statistical process involving the anticipated quiescence properties of the forecasted sea conditions in the geographical region of interest. It is in principle possible to obtain such data in tabular form either large scale simulation or from field data. However, such simulations are computationally intensive and libraries of appropriate field data are not common. Thus, it is clearly attractive to develop techniques that exploit standard wave spectral models for describing the quiescence statistics directly from such spectra. The present study focuses upon such techniques and is a first step towards the production of a computationally low-cost quiescence prediction tool and compares its efficacy against simulations. Two significant properties emerge for a large class of wave spectral models that encompasses the ubiquitous Neumann and Pierson Moskowitz or Bretschneider forms. Firstly, the auto-correlation function of the wave profile that are required to produce the quiescence property can be obtained analytically in terms of standard special functions. This considerably reduces the computational cost making desktop computer-based planning tools a reality. Secondly, for each class of these parametric spectra, the probability of a given number of consecutive wave heights (normalised to the significant wave heights) less than some critical value is in fact independent of absolute wave height. Thus, for a broad class of practically interesting wave spectra all that is required to obtain the statistical distribution of the quiescent periods is simple rescaling.  相似文献   

New constraints on granulite facies metamorphism and melt production in the Lewisian Complex,northwest Scotland          下载免费PDF全文

Yves Feisel  Richard W. White  Richard M. Palin  Tim E. Johnson 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2018,36(6):799-819

In this study, we investigate the metamorphic history of the Assynt and Gruinard blocks of the Archean Lewisian Complex, northwest Scotland, which are considered by some to represent discrete crustal terranes. For samples of mafic and intermediate rocks, phase diagrams were constructed in the Na₂O–CaO–K₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–TiO₂–O₂ (NCKFMASHTO) system using whole‐rock compositions. Our results indicate that all samples equilibrated at similar peak metamorphic conditions of ~8–10 kbar and ~900–1,000°C, consistent with field evidence for in situ partial melting and the classic interpretation of the central region of the Lewisian Complex as representing a single crustal block. Melt‐reintegration modelling was employed in order to estimate probable protolith compositions. Phase equilibria calculated for these modelled undepleted precursors match well with those determined for a subsolidus amphibolite from Gairloch in the southern region of the Lewisian Complex. Both subsolidus lithologies exhibit similar phase relations and potential melt fertility, with both expected to produce orthopyroxene‐bearing hornblende granulites, with or without garnet, at the conditions inferred for the Badcallian metamorphic peak. For fully hydrated protoliths, prograde melting is predicted to first occur at ~620°C and ~9.5 kbar, with up to 45% partial melt predicted to form at peak conditions in a closed‐system environment. Partial melts calculated for both compositions between 610 and 1,050°C are mostly trondhjemitic. Although the melt‐reintegrated granulite is predicted to produce more potassic (granitic) melts at ~700–900°C, the modelled melts are consistent with the measured compositions of felsic sheets from the central region Lewisian Complex.  相似文献   

南海北部海域油气资源调查技术及其应用研究——震源子波检测及模拟分析          下载免费PDF全文

曾宪军  翟继锋  韦成龙 《海洋技术学报》2019,38(2)

在野外采集中考察气枪的稳定性以及室内进行确定性子波反褶积处理,都要求能够获得气枪阵列的实时远场子波。从震源子波检测方法出发,阐述了近场子波采集、幅值转换及记录流程,并列举出实测近场子波时需要考虑解决的问题;接着介绍了震源远场子波的获取方法和主要途径;震源近场子波及远场子波的实测方案,检测震源子波所需的仪器设备和采集技术方法。文中分析了气枪子波的气泡干扰问题,虚反射与后续气泡震荡间的关系以及吸收衰减对子波的影响,并根据实测远场子波,对齐氏和范氏两种气体模型进行了模拟效果对比,结果表明:采用范氏气体模型所模拟的子波与实际子波更为吻合,模拟出的气枪的子波波形、振幅大小、气泡周期上,与业界通用的Nucleus软件的模拟结果吻合较好,在后续的使用中将继续优化。  相似文献   

内蒙古得尔布干成矿带铅锌银矿两期叠加成矿的矿物学证据--以乌尔根矿为例     

魏灿坤  温守钦  杨天瑶  杨红章  张光亮  李建源  谢伟  闫莹灿  张帅 《矿物学报》2020,(2):201-212

内蒙古额尔古纳市乌尔根铅锌银矿是得尔布干成矿带上具有代表性的浅成中低温热液型铅锌银矿之一。显微镜下观察、电子探针分析结果等矿物学证据证明,该矿床存在2期成矿作用。其中早期火山热液形成的金属硫化物普遍受应力作用的改造,并广泛被晚期形成的矿物交代,典型矿物是不含乳滴状黄铜矿的闪锌矿,具有高含量Fe、Mn和低含量Cu的特征;晚期次火山(隐爆角砾岩)热液形成的金属硫化物占大多数,常交代早期形成的矿物并与其交生在一起,典型矿物是含固溶体乳滴黄铜矿的闪锌矿,并且具有中等含量Fe、Mn和高含量Cu的特征。在次火山热液期的晚阶段残余热液还形成了较为纯净的呈棕黄色-无色透明的纯净闪锌矿,具有高含量Zn,低含量Fe、Mn、Cu的特征。结合前人测定的研究区火山岩和矿石矿物定年结果以及火山岩主量元素组成数据,推测早期火山热液成矿与中基性塔木兰沟组火山岩关系密切,而晚期次火山(隐爆角砾岩)热液属于满克头鄂博组的(中)酸性岩浆热液的产物。隐爆角砾岩热液富含Cu元素且为成矿提供了主要物质来源,是研究区寻找除铅锌之外其他矿种的重要线索。  相似文献   

晚第四纪MIS6以来柴达木盆地成盐作用对冰期气候的响应   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈安东  郑绵平  宋高  王学锋  李洪普  韩光  袁文虎 《地质论评》2020,66(3):611-624

气候是控制柴达木盆地盐类沉积的主要因素之一,但是其作用机制尚待明确。作者以柴达木盆地察汗斯拉图盐湖的3个含盐剖面为研究对象,采用多接收电感耦合等离子质谱(MC-ICP-MS)铀系测年测定其沉积时代,并通过X射线粉晶衍射(XRD)分析测定其盐类矿物种类。铀系测年显示D18剖面石盐和芒硝层的沉积时代为13.1±2.0 ka BP～15.9±2.5 ka BP,其中芒硝沉积年代属于末次冰期MIS2晚期;MXK2剖面芒硝层的沉积时代分别为131.7±39.5 ka BP和158.3±10.8 ka BP,D12剖面芒硝层的沉积时代分别为166.6±20.2 ka BP和198.0±20.6 ka BP,可以对应于倒数第二次冰期MIS6。XRD分析确定了3个剖面的盐类矿物主要为芒硝、石盐和石膏。综合多个盐湖晚第四纪成盐数据,本文认为倒数第二次冰期MIS6和末次冰期MIS2是柴达木盆地晚第四纪重要的成盐期,冰期的冷干气候有利于石盐和芒硝等盐类沉积。柴达木盆地"冰期成盐"的根本原因,是由于冰期环境下盆地周边山体冰川规模的扩张以及干冷的冰期气候,共同造成了盐湖补给水量的减少。此外,晚第四纪MIS6和MIS2的冰期降温也是导致盆地中冷相盐类沉积的直接原因。  相似文献   

藏南错那洞穹隆早渐新世含绿柱石花岗伟晶岩的成因机制及其地质意义   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张志  李光明  张林奎  董随亮  梁维  付健刚  黄勇  曹华文  夏祥标 《沉积与特提斯地质》2020,40(2):14-30

错那洞穹隆位于特提斯喜马拉雅东段,发育钨锡-铍稀有金属成矿作用。错那洞穹隆由上(边部)、中(幔部)、下(核部)3个构造层组成,分别以上、下拆离断层为分界线,其中在幔部强变形带中发育一套同构造变形的含绿柱石花岗伟晶岩。锆石U-Pb年代学表明,该套伟晶岩形成于33.7±0.4Ma(MSWD=1.12),为早渐新世岩浆活动的产物,明显早于穹隆中目前发现的淡色花岗岩(20～14Ma)。岩石地球化学和Sr-Nd-Hf同位素测试结果显示:(1)错那洞早渐新世花岗伟晶岩为过铝质高钾富钠花岗质岩石,具有较高SiO_2(69.74%)、高Al_2O_3(14.58%)及较低的CaO、MgO、MnO、TiO_2的特征;(2)高场强元素及大离子亲石元素均呈现高度变化特征,富集轻稀土元素,亏损重稀土元素;(3)Sr同位素初始值(0.696308～0.751604)与Nd同位素初始值(-11.48～-12.05)总体在角闪岩与泥质片麻岩之间,ε_(Hf)(t)值介于-5.4～0.1之间(主要集中在-5.4～-1.8)。综合研究表明,错那洞早渐新世含绿柱石伟晶岩是角闪岩与泥质片麻岩混熔的结果,其中泥质片麻岩的部分熔融起主导作用,其形成与藏南拆离系(STDS)的活动密切相关,表明错那洞地区新生代地壳深熔作用主要源岩在早渐新世已完成了从角闪岩向泥质片麻岩的转变。该同构造变形含绿柱石伟晶岩的发现,揭示错那洞穹隆的成穹作用至少在早渐新世便已开始。铍稀有金属可能在早渐新世已有了初始富集,而在中新世大规模岩浆活动中实现了巨量富集。  相似文献   

The processes that control leucosome compositions in metasedimentary granulites: perspectives from the Southern Marginal Zone migmatites,Limpopo Belt,South Africa     

J. Taylor  G. Nicoli  G. Stevens  D. Frei  J.‐F. Moyen 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2014,32(7):713-742

Anatexis of metapelitic rocks at the Bandelierkop Quarry (BQ) locality in the Southern Marginal Zone of the Limpopo Belt occurred via muscovite and biotite breakdown reactions which, in order of increasing temperature, can be modelled as: (1) Muscovite + quartz + plagioclase = sillimanite + melt; (2) Biotite + sillimanite + quartz + plagioclase = garnet + melt; (3) Biotite + quartz + plagioclase = orthopyroxene ± cordierite ± garnet + melt. Reactions 1 and 2 produced stromatic leucosomes, which underwent solid‐state deformation before the formation of undeformed nebulitic leucosomes by reaction 3. The zircon U–Pb ages for both leucosomes are within error identical. Thus, the melt or magma formed by the first two reactions segregated and formed mechanically solid stromatic veins whilst temperature was increasing. As might be predicted from the deformational history and sequence of melting reactions, the compositions of the stromatic leucosomes depart markedly from those of melts from metapelitic sources. Despite having similar Si contents to melts, the leucosomes are strongly K‐depleted, have Ca:Na ratios similar to the residua from which their magmas segregated and are characterized by a strong positive Eu anomaly, whilst the associated residua has no pronounced Eu anomaly. In addition, within the leucosomes and their wall rocks, peritectic garnet and orthopyroxene are very well preserved. This collective evidence suggests that melt loss from the stromatic leucosome structures whilst the rocks were still undergoing heating is the dominant process that shaped the chemistry of these leucosomes and produced solid leucosomes. Two alternative scenarios are evaluated as generalized petrogenetic models for producing Si‐rich, yet markedly K‐depleted and Ca‐enriched leucosomes from metapelitic sources. The first process involves the mechanical concentration of entrained peritectic plagioclase and garnet in the leucosomes. In this scenario, the volume of quartz in the leucosome must reflect the remaining melt fraction with resultant positive correlation between Si and K in the leucosomes. No such correlation exists in the BQ leucosomes and in similar leucosomes from elsewhere. Consequently, we suggest disequilibrium congruent melting of plagioclase in the source and consequential crystallization of peritectic plagioclase in the melt transfer and accumulation structures rather than at the sites of biotite melting. This induces co‐precipitation of quartz in the structures by increasing SiO₂ content of the melt. This process is characterized by an absence of plagioclase‐induced fractionation of Eu on melting, and the formation of Eu‐enriched, quartz + plagioclase + garnet leucosomes. From these findings, we argue that melt leaves the source rapidly and that the leucosomes form incrementally as melt or magma leaving the source dumps its disequilibrium Ca load, as well as quartz and entrained ferromagnesian peritectic minerals, in sites of magma accumulation and escape. This is consistent with evidence from S‐type granites suggesting rapid magma transfer from source to high level plutons. These findings also suggest that leucosomes of this type should be regarded as constituting part of the residuum from partial melting.  相似文献