城市内涝灾害受灾人口评估方法与实证研究：以哈尔滨市道里区为例     

陈鹏  赵洪阳  张继权  张硕  鲍建华  刘晓静 《地理科学》2020,40(1):158-164

城市内涝灾害频发,对居民生命安全造成严重威胁,为提高城市内涝灾害受灾人口评估精度,提出一种更为精确的受灾人口评估方法。以哈尔滨市道里区为研究区,以城市内涝灾害受灾人口为研究对象,运用一、二维非恒定流为主控方程,构建城市内涝数值模拟模型,并结合受灾人口分布特点,综合构建基于土地利用的人口随时间变化的计算模型。实现在模拟内涝灾害影响范围基础上,利用受灾人口计算模型提取白天与夜晚受灾人口分布情况。结果表明：研究区在百年一遇降雨情景下,有25条街道会发生不同程度积水,积水深度范围值为0.10~1.42 m;此级别内涝灾害在白天11条街道受灾人口数量最大值达到3 500人,夜晚10条街道受灾人口数量最大值为720人。  相似文献   

新冠肺炎疫情扩散与人口流动的空间关系及对中国城市公共卫生分类治理启示     

向云波  王圣云 《热带地理》2020,40(3):408-421

人口流动影响新冠肺炎疫情传播与风险扩散。基于百度迁徙大数据和各省市区卫生健康委员会数据，结合地理信息技术，研究了2020年1月1日至3月5日136个城市新冠肺炎疫情扩散与武汉市人口流出的空间关系及其对我国城市公共卫生治理启示。研究表明：1）中国新冠肺炎疫情扩散过程具有阶段性特征，经历了疫情发生与隐性扩散、快速扩散与暴发、扩散遏制和扩散衰减4个阶段。2）研究时间段武汉市人口主要流向湖北省境内以及周边省市和北京、上海、广州、深圳等一线城市，具有地理邻近性和倾向区域中心城市的人口流入特征。受地理距离、时间成本、社会经济联系、境外输入等因素的影响，新冠肺炎疫情空间分布的不平衡性明显，长江中游城市群、京津冀城市群、长三角城市群、粤港澳大湾区和成渝城市群成为新冠肺炎疫情集中分布的重点区域，一些重点出入境口岸城市的新冠疫情扩散风险较大。3）新冠肺炎疫情扩散与人口流出之间具有较强的正向等级相关性。两者之间的空间关系可以分为8种调控类型，近90%的城市具有人口流入多、确诊病例数高或人口流入少、确诊病例数低的特征。其中，人口流入多、确诊病例数高的城市主要集中分布在湖北省境内以及中国重点城市群的中心城市，其防控压力来自人口流入多、确诊病例数高带来的疫情扩散风险；而人口流入少、确诊病例数低的城市分布较为分散，其防控的难点在于提高防控对策的精准性。我国疫情防控取得了显著成效，但随着时间的演进全球疫情形势反弹的不确定性仍然存在，外防输入、内防反弹的压力依然很重，现阶段乃至未来一段时期，疫情防控将伴随中国经济社会发展成为新常态。建议针对8种调控类型，从人口流动、交通和资源等引导与管控方面分类提出精细化的疫情防控策略，提升城市公共卫生治理能力。  相似文献   

Analysis of city centrality based on entropy weight TOPSIS and population mobility:A case study of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt     

罗静  陈四云  孙璇  朱媛媛  曾菊新  陈广平 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(4):515-534

Based on statistical data and population flow data for 2016,and using entropy weight TOPSIS and the obstacle degree model,the centrality of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)together with the factors influencing centrality were measured.In addition,data for the population flow were used to analyze the relationships between cities and to verify centrality.The results showed that:(1)The pattern of centrality conforms closely to the pole-axis theory and the central geography theory.Two axes,corresponding to the Yangtze River and the Shanghai-Kunming railway line,interconnect cities of different classes.On the whole,the downstream cities have higher centrality,well-defined gradients and better development of city infrastructure compared with cities in the middle and upper reaches.(2)The economic scale and size of the population play a fundamental role in the centrality of cities,and other factors reflect differences due to different city classes.For most of the coastal cities or the capital cities in the central and western regions,factors that require long-term development such as industrial facilities,consumption,research and education provide the main competitive advantages.For cities that are lagging behind in development,transportation facilities,construction of infrastructure and fixed asset investment have become the main methods to achieve development and enhance competitiveness.(3)The mobility of city populations has a significant correlation with the centrality score,the correlation coefficients for the relationships between population mobility and centrality are all greater than 0.86(P<0.01).The population flow is mainly between high-class cities,or high-class and low-class cities,reflecting the high centrality and huge radiating effects of high-class cities.Furthermore,the cities in the YREB are closely linked to Guangdong and Beijing,reflecting the dominant economic status of Guangdong with its geographical proximity to the YREB and Beijing's enormous influence as the national political and cultural center,respectively.  相似文献   

Australian ‘gayborhoods’ and ‘lesborhoods’: a new method for estimating the number and prevalence of adult gay men and lesbian women living in each Australian postcode     

Denton Callander  Julie Mooney-Somers  Phillip Keen  Rebecca Guy  Tim Duck  Benjamin R. Bavinton 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(11):2160-2176

ABSTRACT

Gay men and lesbian women often demonstrate unique settlement patterns, forming what have been referred to as ‘gayborhoods’. This study sought to provide the first postcode-level estimates of population size and prevalence of gay and lesbian people in Australia. Data on same-gender-partnered households from the Australian Census were combined with information from six different surveys conducted from 2011 to 2017. We estimated that in 2016 there were 132,203 gay men (1.5% of adult males; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6) and 79,931 lesbian women (0.9% of adult females; 95% CI: 0.8–1.0) in Australia. While many postcodes were sparsely populated by gay and lesbian people (40.1% had prevalences of <0.1%), 24.6% were moderately populated (prevalences in the 50-95th percentile) and 2.7% were highly populated (95th percentile). By jurisdiction, the Australian Capital Territory had the highest prevalences of gay men (2.1%; 95% CI: 2.0–2.2) and lesbian women (1.5%; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6). Although the majority of highly populated postcodes were found in major cities (83.7%), some were also found in regional and remote area (16.3%). This method can be applied in other countries to enhance populate estimates. The accompanying dataset can be used to guide service delivery, conduct geographically contextualised research and develop policies relevant to gay men and lesbian women in Australia.  相似文献   

山西省大同市新荣区石墨矿岩石矿物地球化学特征与成因     

梁钰琦  赵永  吴光存  张越  夏庆霖 《地球学报》2020,41(6):827-834

山西省大同市新荣区石墨矿带总体呈北东—南西向展布, 长约22 km, 赋矿层位为中下太古界右所堡组, 岩性为含石墨黑云斜长片麻岩。目前该矿带上已有7个勘查区, 累计查明晶质石墨矿物资源量约 5000万吨, 但对其矿床成因类型研究相对较少。本文收集整理和分析总结了区域内地质资料及化验分析结果, 采用变质岩原岩恢复的四种方法确定该矿带的成因: 从石墨矿带的矿体产状和岩石组合、岩相学和矿物学特征定性判断该矿带矿床为沉积岩区域深变质成矿类型; 矿体样品地球化学微量元素比值(Sr:Ba等)符合副变质岩特征; 稀土元素配分曲线及其研究表明矿体及围岩具有沉积岩变质特征; 以TiO2-F图解、[(al+fm)–(c+alk)]/Si图解以及(al-alk):c图解展示的岩石化学特征半定量地确认新荣区石墨矿带矿床为以黏土岩为主的区域变质成矿。新荣区石墨矿带成因类型的确定填补了该区域矿床成因类型研究的空白, 为下一步地质找矿及建模提供了重要依据; 三种图解相结合, 逐步缩小原岩范围, 锁定原岩类型, 为变质岩原岩恢复及矿床成因研究提供了新的思路和判别方法。  相似文献   

基于遗传算法优化BP神经网络的玉米遥感估产方法     

于海洋  陈圣波  杨北萍  安秦 《世界地质》2020,39(1):208-214

以内蒙古自治区开鲁县玉米作物为研究对象,将生育期内玉米遥感影像所提取的多种植被指数和实地采样点的测产数据作为训练值,利用BP(back propagation)神经网络和遗传算法优化BP(GA-BP)神经网络估产模型,得出网络预测的玉米产量数值。通过决定系数R 2和均方根误差RMSE,比较实测产量与预测产量之间的精度,BP神经网络模型R^2为0.8452,RMSE(%)为28.37;遗传算法优化BP神经网络模型R^2为0.9850,RMSE(%)为6.70,表明遗传算法优化BP神经网络估产模型具有一定可行性和可信度。  相似文献   

中国重点产业创新产出时空分异及影响因素     

王彬燕  王士君  田俊峰  浩飞龙 《地理研究》2019,38(2):259-272

采用Mann-Kendall、Theil指数、空间马尔科夫链等方法,对1994-2014年中国十大重点产业创新产出时空演化进行分析,并对创新发展空间分异成因进行了探讨。研究表明：① 研究期内,中国重点产业创新产出分为两个时段,成果呈指数型增长;② 创新产出差异先增后减,东、中、西、东北板块间差异小于板块内部,创新产出发展呈现出传染扩散与等级扩散的双重特征;③ 邻域环境影响创新发展,创新产出水平发生类型转移的单元集中在东、中部地区,且活跃度不断提升;④ 经济社会与政策条件、高等教育基础条件对重点产业创新发展有明显的正向驱动作用,而工业化程度影响微弱,未来加强对高等教育基础与智力资本的投入可进一步增强重点产业创新发展竞争力。  相似文献   

基于栅格的关中平原城市群人居环境质量综合评价          下载免费PDF全文

魏献花  白永平  车磊  王栋  效瑞  张文娴 《干旱区地理》2019,42(5):1176-1184

基于自然与人文多重栅格数据，构建人居环境质量综合指数评价模型，分析2015年关中平原城市群人居环境的空间分异格局，并对人口分布与人居环境质量的协同性进行探讨。结果表明：(1)人居自然环境呈现出自东向西，由山地、高原向平原、谷地依次递减的空间分布格局，受地形影响最为明显，地形起伏度与人居自然环境呈负相关关系。(2)人居人文环境表现出平原低、山区高，城镇高于乡村的空间分布格局，受城市行政层级影响显著。(3)关中平原城市群人居环境综合质量指数介于0.216～0.716之间，呈现出以关中平原、汾河谷地向外梯级递减的带状空间分布格局。(4)关中平原城市群人口密度与人居环境质量空间分布显著一致，总体呈现出平原高于山地，城市高于乡村的空间分布规律，人居环境质量越高，人口密度越大，土地利用也越充分。  相似文献   

Peaks of People: Using Topographic Prominence as a Method for Determining the Ranked Significance of Population Centers     

Garrett Dash Nelson  Ryan McKeon 《The Professional geographer》2019,71(2):342-354

This article borrows a statistical method from physical geography—topographical prominence—to suggest a new technique for measuring the relative significance or rank of population centers. Unlike raw population measures, prominence gives consideration to both the spatial intensity of concentrated population areas as well as the spatial dependence or independence of neighboring settlement clusters in relation to one another. We explain how to apply the topographic prominence calculation method to gridded population data and examine its practical utility through case studies of several U.S. states. We then discuss some ways in which parametric choices about point-to-surface transformations can result in considerably different outcomes and offer further suggestions for conceptualizing and measuring population center significance.  相似文献   

海拉尔—塔木察格盆地中部富油凹陷高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层成因及油气勘探意义     

蒙启安  李军辉  李跃  邹越 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2020,50(2):569-578

海拉尔—塔木察格盆地中部富油凹陷下白垩统铜钵庙组和南屯组广泛发育高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层，并已于其中获得了工业突破，但对其成因机制认识不清。在岩心、薄片、录井和测井等资料综合研究的基础上，结合大量海拉尔—塔木察格盆地及周边地区的火山事件分析，认为中部富油凹陷发育的高含凝灰质碎屑岩的岩石类型主要包括凝灰质砂岩、凝灰质泥岩、凝灰岩和沉凝灰岩。不同时期、不同凹陷高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层发育特点各异，整体来看从铜钵庙组到南屯组储层中的凝灰质含量越来越低，高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层主要发育在铜钵庙组和南一段沉积时期。高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层中的火山物质并非来源于自身断陷期发生的基性火山活动，而是来自于大兴安岭地区大规模的酸性火山喷发事件。海拉尔—塔木察格盆地高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层的成因机制包括两种类型：一种是同沉积期火山灰直接空降入湖型；另一种是同沉积期火山灰先沉降至陆上经河流搬运后再沉积的水携型。高含凝灰质碎屑岩储层中的火山碎屑物质受有机酸作用易于溶蚀，次生孔隙发育，为深部油气成藏提供了有效储层空间，并且火山喷发活动对优质烃源岩的形成具有促进作用，对于油气勘探具有重要意义。  相似文献