Can we learn from the past? Four hundred years of changes in adaptation to floods and droughts. Measuring the vulnerability in two Hispanic cities   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Salvador Gil-Guirado  José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez  María Del Rosario Prieto 《Climatic change》2016,139(2):183-200

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The 2001 Mesoscale Convective Systems over Iberia and the Balearic Islands     

R. García-Herrera  D. Barriopedro  E. Hernández  D. Paredes  J. F. Correoso  L. Prieto 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2005,90(3-4):225-243

Summary This paper characterizes Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) during 2001 over Iberia and the Balearic Islands and their meteorological settings. Enhanced infrared Meteosat imagery has been used to detect their occurrence over the Western Mediterranean region between June and December 2001 according to satellite-defined criteria based on the MCS physical characteristics. Twelve MCSs have been identified. The results show that the occurrence of 2001 MCSs is limited to the August–October period, with September being the most active period. They tend to develop during the late afternoon or early night, with preferred eastern Iberian coast locations and eastward migrations. A cloud shield area of 50.000 km² is rarely exceeded. When our results are compared with previous studies, it is possible to assert that though 2001 MCS activity was moderate, the convective season was substantially less prolonged than usual, with shorter MCS life cycles and higher average speeds. The average MCS precipitation rate was 3.3 mm·h⁻¹ but a wide range of values varying from scarce precipitation to intense events of 130 mm·24 h⁻¹ (6 September) were collected. The results suggest that, during 2001, MCS rainfall was the principal source of precipitation in the Mediterranean region during the convective season, but its impact varied according to the location. Synoptic analysis based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis show that several common precursors could be identified over the Western Mediterranean Sea when the 2001 MCSs occurred: a low-level tongue of moist air and precipitable water (PW) exceeding 25 mm through the southern portion of the Western Mediterranean area, low-level zonal warm advection over 2 °C·24 h⁻¹ towards eastern Iberia, a modest 1000–850 hPa equivalent potential temperature (θ_e) difference over 20 °C located close to the eastern Iberian coast, a mid level trough (sometimes a cut-off low) over Northern Africa or Southern Spain and high levels geostrophic vorticity advection exceeding 12·10⁻¹⁰ s⁻² over eastern Iberia and Northern Africa. Finally, the results suggest that synoptic, orographic and a warm-air advection were the most relevant forcing mechanisms during 2001.  相似文献   

A MASCOTTE-based characterization of MCSs over Spain, 2000–2002     

R. García-Herrera  E. Hernndez  D. Paredes  D. Barriopedro  J.F. Correoso  L. Prieto 《Atmospheric Research》2005,73(3-4):261-282

A 3-year Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) database, which extends from 2000 to 2002, has been built for the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands using the objective method MASCOTTE (MAximum Spatial COrrelation Technique). It was originally developed to track the evolution of convective systems over the Amazon region; after modifications, it is able to track MCS evolution even with an hour and a half of missed images and provides essential information of both dynamical and morphological characteristics of MCSs. MASCOTTE is tested against a visual and subjective method, and is found to offer advantages such as automation and a simple and efficient operation that make it very useful for building large MCS databases.Thirty-five MCSs were found between June and October, most of them originated along the Mediterranean coast and near the Pyrenees, showing an increasing occurrence from June to September, when the maximum is found. The regions most influenced by MCS occurrences are Balearic Islands, Valencia, Catalonia, Murcia and the Basque Country. The MCSs tend to be small, short-lived and linear, usually moving eastward or northeastward with low velocities.The MCSs-associated precipitation presents high variability, ranging from 80 to 0 mm h⁻¹ as maximum hourly records. Two different convective regions are identified based on MCS behavior in extreme precipitation events: Northern Spain (the Basque Country) with abundant and continuous precipitation regime but little MCS influence, and the Mediterranean coast, where precipitation is sporadic but much more intense.  相似文献   

Confidence intervals for earthquake source parameters   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

G. A. Prieto  D. J. Thomson  F. L. Vernon  P. M. Shearer  R. L. Parker 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,168(3):1227-1234

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SW Sextantis stars: the dominant population of cataclysmic variables with orbital periods between 3 and 4 h     

P. Rodríguez-Gil  B. T. Gänsicke  H.-J. Hagen  S. Araujo-Betancor  A. Aungwerojwit  C. Allende Prieto  D. Boyd  J. Casares  D. Engels  O. Giannakis  E. T. Harlaftis  J. Kube  H. Lehto  I. G. Martínez-Pais  R. Schwarz  W. Skidmore  A. Staude  M. A. P. Torres 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,377(4):1747-1762

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On the sublimation of ice particles on the surface of Mars; with applications to the 2007/8 Phoenix Scout mission     

Peter A. Taylor  Konstantin Baibakov  Michael H. Hecht  P.-Y. Li  Luis Prieto 《Icarus》2006,181(2):375-387

Experimental studies related to the sublimation of ice, in bulk or as small particles, alone or mixed with dust similar to that expected on the surface of Mars, are reported. The experiments, a cloud physics particle sublimation model, and a convection model presented by Ingersoll, all indicate a strong dependence of sublimation rate on temperature, and this appears to be the dominant factor, assuming that the relative humidity of the air is fairly low. In addition the rate of loss of water vapour appears to depend primarily on exposed surface area and less on particle size and the total mass of the sample, or the mass of ice in the sample. The 2007/8 Phoenix Scout mission plans to obtain and analyse samples of sub-surface ice from about 70° N on Mars. A concern is that these samples, in the form of ice chips of size about 1 mm diameter, could be prone to sublimation when exposed for prolonged periods (many hours) to a relatively warm and dry atmosphere. Our laboratory simulations confirm that this could be a problem if particles are simply left lying on the surface, but also indicate that samples kept suitably cold and collected together in confined piles will survive long enough for the collection and delivery (to the analysis instruments) procedure to be completed.  相似文献   

Integrated stratigraphy and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar chronology of the early to middle Miocene Upper Freshwater Molasse in western Bavaria (Germany)     

Hayfaa Abdul Aziz  Madelaine B?hme  Alexander Rocholl  Jerome Prieto  Jan R. Wijbrans  Valerian Bachtadse  Albert Ulbig 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2010,99(8):1859-1886

A detailed integrated stratigraphic study (biostratigraphy and magnetostratigraphy) was carried out on five sections from the western part of the Bavarian Upper Freshwater Molasse of the North Alpine Foreland Basin (NAFB), greatly improving the chronostratigraphy of these sediments. The sections belong to the lithostratigraphic units Limnische Untere Serie (UL) and Fluviatile Untere Serie (UF) and contain 19 (mostly new) small-mammal bearing levels, significantly refining the local biostratigraphy. Radiometric ages obtained from glass shards from tuff horizons are used together with the biostratigraphic information for constructing and confirming the magnetostratigraphic correlation of the studied sections to the Astronomical Tuned Time Scale (ANTS04; Lourens et al. in Geologic Time Scale 2004, Cambridge University Press, 2004). This correlation implies that the UL lithostratigraphic unit corresponds to the latest Ottnangian and the Early Karpatian, whereas the UF corresponds to the Karpatian and the Early Badenian. This indicates that the Brackish- to Freshwater Molasse transition already occurred during the late Ottnangian. The pre-Riesian hiatus occurred in the latest Karpatian and lower Early Badenian in Eastern Bavaria and Bohemia and in the Late Karpatian and earliest Badenian in Western Bavaria. The geochemical and Ar–Ar data of volcanic ashes suggest that highly evolved silicic magmas from a single volcano or volcanic center, characterized by a uniform Nd isotopic composition, erupted repetitively over the course of at least 1.6 Myr. Three phases of eruptive activity were identified at 16.1 ± 0.2 Ma (Zahling-2), 15.6 ± 0.4 Ma (Krumbad), and 14.5 ± 0.2 Ma (Heilsberg, Hegau). The correlation of the local biostratigraphic zonation to the ANTS04 enables further the characterization of both the Ottnangian–Karpatian and Karpatian–Badenian boundaries in the NAFB by small-mammal biostratigraphy. According to these results the Ottnangian–Karpatian boundary is contemporaneous with the first appearance datum of Megacricetodon bavaricus (in the size of the type population) and the first common occurrence of Keramidomys thaleri, whereas Ligerimys florancei, Melissiodon dominans and Prodeinotherium aff. bavaricum have been already disappeared during the late Ottnangian. The Karpatian–Badenian boundary is characterized by a significant size increase of the large Megacricetodon lineage and possibly a (re-)immigration of Prodeinotherium bavaricum.  相似文献   

Photometric Inference of the Corotation Radii of Ten Barred Galaxies     

J.A.L. Aguerri  J.E. Beckman  M. Prieto 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2001,276(2-4):691-698

We have used photometric images of ten barred galaxies in the B and I bands to infer the geometrical and dynamical parameters of their bars: Their length, (R _bar), their strengths, (S _b), and their corotation radii, (R _CR).These parameters have been obtained studying azimuthal profiles from the B and I band images of the galaxies. We find that R _CR is in all cases slightly larger than R _bar, with mean values close to 1.2 R _bar. We have also found a dependence of the ratio R _CR/R _bar on S _bar. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems     

Dáithí Stone  Maximilian Auffhammer  Mark Carey  Gerrit Hansen  Christian Huggel  Wolfgang Cramer  David Lobell  Ulf Molau  Andrew Solow  Lourdes Tibig  Gary Yohe 《Climatic change》2013,118(2):381-395

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.  相似文献   

Spot patterns and differential rotation in the eclipsing pre-cataclysmic variable binary, V471 Tau     

G. A. J. Hussain  C. Allende Prieto  S. H. Saar  M. Still 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,367(4):1699-1708

We present surface spot maps of the K2V primary star in the pre-cataclysmic variable binary system, V471 Tau. The spot maps show the presence of large high-latitude spots located at the sub-white dwarf longitude region. By tracking the relative movement of spot groups over the course of four nights (eight rotation cycles), we measure the surface differential rotation rate of the system. Our results reveal that the star is rotating rigidly with a surface shear rate,  dΩ= 1.6 ± 6 mrad d⁻¹  . The single active star AB Dor has a similar spectral type, rotation period and activity level as the K star in V471 Tau, but displays much stronger surface shear  (46 < dΩ < 58 mrad d⁻¹)  . Our results suggest that tidal locking may inhibit differential rotation; this reduced shear, however, does not affect the overall magnetic activity levels in active K dwarfs.  相似文献