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By performing error analysis of the information from the 48-hr forecasting charts of the 500-hPa fields by the B model over eastern Asia in the period of July to September 1982 and expansions of the height fields of westerlies and the subtropical zone by use of the Chebyshev polynomial and EOF, respectively, a scheme is developed for predicting the synchronous STH coefficient (i. e. time coefficient) in terms of the Chebyshev one, thus making possible statistical forecasting of the 500-hPa subtropical field within 48 hr. Tests with independent samples indicate that, to a certain extent, this scheme can be used in operational prediction as a reference. 相似文献
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本文对1982年7—9月中央气象台发布的东亚范围500百帕的48小时预报图进行了误差分析,发现40°N以北的中高纬度预报误差较小,而在35°N以南的较低纬度,尤其是副热带地区,预报误差较大。因此我们对西风带高度场和副热带高度场分别进行了车贝雪夫多项式和自然正交函数展开。分析表明,他们之间具有一定的关联。在此基础上,提出了一个用车贝雪夫系数去预报同一时刻副热带高压系数(时间系数),从而获得48小时副热带高度场的统计预报方法。通过独立样本检验并与B模式的预报结果进行对照,证明本文的预报方案具有参考和应用价值。 相似文献
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