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1.
An ensemble of twenty-three 14-year experiments conducted with the ECHAM-4 GCM has been examined to test the model's capability
to simulate the principal modes of interannual variability. The integrations were performed under specified monthly SST between
1979–1993. The analysis was focused on the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics. Empirical orthogonal functions analysis
(EOF) using seasonal anomaly fields has been performed to isolate the principal modes that dominate the southern extratropical
variability at the interannual time scale. Leading patterns of 500 hPa geopotential height (z500) have been compared with
those estimated from the ECMWF re-analysis dataset. The model is able to adequately reproduce the spatial pattern of the annular
mode, but it represents the temporal variations of the oscillation less satisfactorily. The model simulation of the Pacific
South American (PSA) pattern is better, both in the shape of the pattern and in the temporal evolution. To verify if the capability
of the model to adequately simulate the temporal oscillation of the propagating patterns is related to the increased influence
of the tropical external forcing, covarying SST-atmospheric modes have been identified by singular value decomposition (SVD).
In winter (July-August-September, JAS) the tropical SST variability is highly correlated with the ENSO mode. In summer (January-February-March,
JFM) the strength of the teleconnections is related to strong westerly anomalies, disrupted by a meridional out of phase relation
near to South America. The large size of the ensemble was exploited by comparing the time-varying model spread and degrees
of freedom of the simulated extratropical circulation. Results show that when the extratropical circulation has a few degrees
of freedom, the reproducibility is relatively low and the ensemble is governed by a fairly robust zonally symmetric structure
of dispersion.
Received: 9 May 2000 / Accepted: 30 January 2001 相似文献
2.
The ability of an atmospheric general circulation model to reproduce fundamental features of the wintertime extratropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation is evaluated with emphasis on the daily variability of the SH mean flow and the mean flow-transient perturbations interaction. Two 10-year simulations using a new version of the LMDZ GCM with a stretched grid scheme centered at 45 °S and forced by climatological SST are performed: a high (144Ꮡ) and low (64Ꭹ) horizontal resolution runs. The performance of both simulations was determined by comparing several simulated fields (zonal wind, temperature, kinetic energy, transient eddy momentum and heat fluxes, Eliassen-Palm fluxes, Eady growth rate and baroclinic conversion term) against the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast reanalyses (ERA). High and low-resolution simulations are similar in many respects; in particular, both experiments reproduce the main patterns of the southern extratropical large-scale circulation satisfactorily. Increasing resolution does not improve universally some spurious aspects of the low resolution simulation (e.g. the cold bias in the high polar troposphere, the debilitated subtropical jet, the low baroclinic conversion rate). Those aspects present little sensitivity to the model resolution. The interaction between transient eddies and zonal mean flow are examined. The low-resolution experiment is able to qualitatively represent the acceleration/deceleration of the mean flow by transient perturbations, south/north of 30 °S with an accuracy similar to that of the high-resolution experiment. Although both experiments represent the baroclinic structure of the mean flow satisfactorily, the model underestimates some transient properties due to the underestimation of the baroclinic conversion term in middle latitudes. Such misrepresentation does not improve with increasing resolution and is related to the relatively weak meridional temperature gradient and the inadequate geographical distribution of the eddy heat fluxes. In particular, the eddy kinetic energy is always underestimated. Eddy kinetic energy does not improve convincingly with increasing resolution, suggesting that the adequate representation of the storm tracks is highly influenced by the physical parametrizations. 相似文献
3.
A. F. Carril C. G. Menéndez A. R. C. Remedio F. Robledo A. S?rensson B. Tencer J.-P. Boulanger M. de Castro D. Jacob H. Le Treut L. Z. X. Li O. Penalba S. Pfeifer M. Rusticucci P. Salio P. Samuelsson E. Sanchez P. Zaninelli 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(12):2747-2768
The ability of four regional climate models to reproduce the present-day South American climate is examined with emphasis on La Plata Basin. Models were integrated for the period 1991–2000 with initial and lateral boundary conditions from ERA-40 Reanalysis. The ensemble sea level pressure, maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation are evaluated in terms of seasonal means and extreme indices based on a percentile approach. Dispersion among the individual models and uncertainties when comparing the ensemble mean with different climatologies are also discussed. The ensemble mean is warmer than the observations in South Eastern South America (SESA), especially for minimum winter temperatures with errors increasing in magnitude towards the tails of the distributions. The ensemble mean reproduces the broad spatial pattern of precipitation, but overestimates the convective precipitation in the tropics and the orographic precipitation along the Andes and over the Brazilian Highlands, and underestimates the precipitation near the monsoon core region. The models overestimate the number of wet days and underestimate the daily intensity of rainfall for both seasons suggesting a premature triggering of convection. The skill of models to simulate the intensity of convective precipitation in summer in SESA and the variability associated with heavy precipitation events (the upper quartile daily precipitation) is far from satisfactory. Owing to the sparseness of the observing network, ensemble and observations uncertainties in seasonal means are comparable for some regions and seasons. 相似文献
4.
We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss how the anthropogenic climate change under A1B scenario influences both the patterns of mean change of extreme indices and the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme indices. The likelihood of occurrence of a year with a large number of days with “warm” minimum temperatures is estimated to increase by a factor of 4 by the end of this century over most of the southern extratropics. By that time, the risk of “severe” precipitation intensity is projected to rise in most areas with the exception of the subtropical anticyclones, which experience particularly strong drying. Over the Southern Ocean this likelihood has increased to over 60%. Corresponding estimates of the changing likelihood for very long dry spells show a banded structure with positive ratios to the north of about 50° S and negative ratios in the sub Antarctic seas. In southern South America this risk about doubled between present and future climates. Then, we explore if the Southern Annular Mode influences the occurrence of severe extreme indices during the period 2070–2099. Its positive phase inhibits the extremely warm minimum temperatures in the Southern Ocean, with the exception of the eastern Bellingshausen Sea, and favors severe frost days to the north of the Ross Sea. Temperature indices show very little change induced by the SAM to the north of 50° S. Severe dry spells are inhibited during the positive phase along the sub Antarctic seas, while the mid-latitudes, including most of Patagonia, show the opposite behaviour. The Southern Ocean reveals a non-uniform distribution with both increases and decreases in the occurrence of heavier precipitation during positive SAM. 相似文献
5.
Heatwaves in Europe: areas of homogeneous variability and links with the regional to large-scale atmospheric and SSTs anomalies 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This work presents a methodology to study the interannual variability associated with summertime months in which extremely
hot temperatures are frequent. Daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature fields (T
max and T
min, respectively) are used to define indexes of extreme months based on the number of days crossing thresholds. An empirical
orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to the monthly indexes. EOF loadings give information about the geographical
areas where the number of days per month with extreme temperatures has the largest variability. Correlations between the EOF
principal components and the time series of other fields allow plotting maps highlighting the anomalies in the large scale
circulation and in the SSTs that are associated with the occurrence of extreme events. The methodology is used to construct
the “climatology” of the extremely hot summertime months over Europe. In terms of both interannual and intraseasonal variability,
there are three regions in which the frequency of the extremely hot days per month homogeneously varies: north-west Europe,
Euro-Mediterranean and Eurasia region. Although extremes over those regions occur during the whole summer (June to August),
the anomalous climatic conditions associated with frequent heatwaves present some intraseasonal variability. Extreme climate
events over the north-west Europe and Eurasia are typically related to the occurrence of blocking situations. The intraseasonal
variability of those patterns is related to the amplitude of the blocking, the relative location of the action centre and
the wavetrain of anomalies downstream or upstream of the blocking. During June and July, blocking situations which give extremely
hot climate conditions over north-west Europe are also associated with cold conditions over the eastern Mediterranean sector.
The Euro-Mediterranean region is a transition area in which extratropical and tropical systems compete, influencing the occurrence
of climate events: blockings tend to be related to extremely hot months during June while baroclinic anomalies dominate the
variability of the climate events in July and August. We highlight that our method could be easily applied to other regions
of the world, to other fields as well as to model outputs to assess, e.g. the potential change of extreme climate events in
a warmer climate. 相似文献
6.
An intercomparison between the surface heat flux feedback in five coupled models,COADS and the NCEP reanalysis 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
C.?FrankignoulEmail author E.?Kestenare M.?Botzet A.?F.?Carril H.?Drange A.?Pardaens L.?Terray R.?Sutton 《Climate Dynamics》2004,22(4):373-388
The surface heat flux feedback is estimated in the Atlantic and the extra-tropical Indo-Pacific, using monthly heat flux and sea surface temperature anomaly data from control simulations with five global climate models, and it is compared to estimates derived from COADS and the NCEP reanalysis. In all data sets, the heat flux feedback is negative nearly everywhere and damps the sea surface temperature anomalies. At extra-tropical latitudes, it is strongly dominated by the turbulent fluxes. The radiative feedback can be positive or negative, depending on location and season, but it remains small, except in some models in the tropical Atlantic. The negative heat flux feedback is strong in the mid-latitude storm tracks, exceeding 40 W m–2 K–1 at place, but in the Northern Hemisphere it is substantially underestimated in several models. The negative feedback weakens at high latitudes, although the models do not reproduce the weak positive feedback found in NCEP in the northern North Atlantic. The main differences are found in the tropical Atlantic where the heat flux feedback is weakly negative in some models , as in the observations, and strongly negative in others where it can exceed 30 W m–2 K–1 at large scales, in part because of a strong contribution of the radiative fluxes, in particular during spring. A comparison between models with similar atmospheric or oceanic components suggests that the atmospheric model is primarily responsible for the heat flux feedback differences at extra-tropical latitudes. In the tropical Atlantic, the ocean behavior plays an equal role. The differences in heat flux feedback in the tropical Atlantic are reflected in the sea surface temperature anomaly persistence, which is too small in models where the heat flux damping is large. A good representation of the heat flux feedback is thus required to simulate climate variability realistically. 相似文献
7.
Coronato Tanea Carril Andrea F. Zaninelli Pablo G. Giles Julián Ruscica Romina Falco Magdalena Sörensson Anna A. Fita Lluis Li Laurent Z. X. Menéndez Claudio G. 《Climate Dynamics》2020,55(9-10):2543-2556
Based on a series of experiments conducted by two regional climate models (RCA4 and LMDZ) with and without soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, we investigate the role of soil moisture on the occurrence of surface air temperature extremes and its persistence in Southeastern South America. Our analysis reveals that both factors, soil moisture-atmosphere coupling and relatively drier soil conditions, enhance the temperature extremes. In addition, the existence of soil-atmosphere coupling and the associated soil moisture variability is crucial for the development of the extremes in SESA. The key role of soil-atmosphere coupling is also reflected in the intrinsic persistence of hot days, which is greater in simulations with interactive soil moisture than in those with prescribed soil conditions. In the absence of soil-atmosphere coupling, the imprint of the anomalous dry (and also wet) soil conditions on the intensity and persistence of hot days is weaker.
相似文献8.
Jean-Philippe Boulanger G. Brasseur Andrea Fabiana Carril Manuel de Castro Nicolas Degallier Carlos Ereño H. Le Treut Jose Antonio Marengo Claudio Guillermo Menendez Mario Nestor Nuñez Olga C. Penalba Alfredo Luis Rolla Matilde Rusticucci Rafael Terra 《Climatic change》2010,98(3-4):307-329
The goal of the CLARIS project was to build an integrated European–South American network dedicated to promote common research strategies to observe and predict climate changes and their consequent socio-economic impacts taking into account the climate and societal peculiarities of South America. Reaching that goal placed the present network as a privileged advisor to contribute to the design of adaptation strategies in a region strongly affected by and dependent on climate variability (e.g. agriculture, health, hydro-electricity). Building the CLARIS network required fulfilling the following three objectives: (1) The first objective of CLARIS was to set up and favour the technical transfer and expertise in earth system and regional climate modelling between Europe and South America together with the providing of a list of climate data (observed and simulated) required for model validations; (2) The second objective of CLARIS was to facilitate the exchange of observed and simulated climate data between the climate research groups and to create a South American high-quality climate database for studies in extreme events and long-term climate trends; (3) Finally, the third objective of CLARIS was to strengthen the communication between climate researchers and stakeholders, and to demonstrate the feasibility of using climate information in the decision-making process. 相似文献
9.
J. Marengo S. Chou C. Mourao S. Solman E. Sanchez P. Samuelsson R. P. da Rocha L. Li N. Pessacg A. R. C. Remedio A. F. Carril I. F Cavalcanti D. Jacob 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2937-2955
The meteorological characteristics of the drought of 2005 in Amazonia, one of the most severe in the last 100 years were assessed using a suite of seven regional models obtained from the CLARIS LPB project. The models were forced with the ERA-Interim reanalyses as boundary conditions. We used a combination of rainfall and temperature observations and the low-level circulation and evaporation fields from the reanalyses to determine the climatic and meteorological characteristics of this particular drought. The models reproduce in some degree the observed annual cycle of precipitation and the geographical distribution of negative rainfall anomalies during the summer months of 2005. With respect to the evolution of rainfall during 2004–2006, some of the models were able to simulate the negative rainfall departures during early summer of 2005 (December 2004 to February 2005). The interannual variability of rainfall anomalies for both austral summer and fall over northern and southern Amazonia show a large spread among models, with some of them capable of reproducing the 2005 observed negative rainfall departures (four out of seven models in southern Amazonia during DJF). In comparison, all models simulated the observed southern Amazonia negative rainfall and positive air temperature anomalies during the El Nino-related drought in 1998. The spatial structure of the simulated rainfall and temperature anomalies in DJF and MAM 2005 shows biases that are different among models. While some models simulated the observed negative rainfall anomalies over parts of western and southern Amazonia during DJF, others simulated positive rainfall departures over central Amazonia. The simulated circulation patterns indicate a weaker northeasterly flow from the tropical North Atlantic into Amazonia, and reduced flows from southern Amazonia into the La Plata basin in DJF, which is consistent with observations. In general, we can say that in some degree the regional models are able to capture the response to the forcing from the tropical Atlantic during the drought of 2005 in Amazonia. Moreover, extreme climatic conditions in response to anomalous low-level circulation features are also well captured, since the boundary conditions come from reanalysis and the models are largely constrained by the information provided at the boundaries. The analysis of the 2005 drought suggests that when the forcing leading to extreme anomalous conditions is associated with both local and non-local mechanisms (soil moisture feedbacks and remote SST anomalies, respectively) the models are not fully capable of representing these feedbacks and hence, the associated anomalies. The reason may be a deficient reproduction of the land–atmosphere interactions. 相似文献
10.
Magdalena Falco Andrea F. Carril Laurent Z. X. Li Carlos Cabrelli Claudio G. Men&#;ndez 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(3):1553-1569
This paper aims to identify those regions within the South American continent where the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have the potential to add value (PAV) compared to their coarser-resolution global forcing. For this, we used a spatial-scale filtering method based on the wavelet theory to distinguish the regional climatic signal present in atmospheric surface fields from observed data (CPC and TRMM) and 6 RCM simulations belonging to the CORDEX Project. The wavelet used for filtering was Haar wavelet, but a comparative analysis with Daubechies 4 wavelet indicated that meteorological fields or regional indices were not very sensitive to the wavelet selected. Once the longer wavelengths were filtered, we focused on analyzing the spatial variability of extreme rainfall and the spatiotemporal variability of maximum and minimum surface air temperature on a daily basis. The results obtained suggest essential differences in the spatial distribution of the small-scale signal of extreme precipitation between TRMM and regional models, together with a large dispersion between models. While TRMM and CPC register a large signal throughout the continent, the RCMs place it over the Andes Cordillera and some over tropical South America. PAV signal for surface air temperature was found over the Andes Cordillera and the Brazilian Highlands, which are regions characterized by complex topography, and also on the coasts of the continent. The signal came specially from the small-scale stationary component. The transient part is much smaller than the stationary one, except over la Plata Basin where they are of the same order of magnitude. Also, the RCMs and CPC showed a large spread between them in representing this transient variability. The results confirm that RCMs have the potential to add value in the representation of extreme precipitation and the mean surface temperature in South America. However, this condition is not applicable throughout the whole continent but is particularly relevant in those terrestrial regions where the surface forcing is strong, such as the Andes Cordillera or the coasts of the continent. 相似文献