Multiforced statistical assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced surface air temperature change 1890–1985     

Christian-D Schönwiese  Ursula Stähler 《Climate Dynamics》1991,6(1):23-33

Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO₂, or equivalent CO₂ implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO₂ doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO₂ doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil  相似文献   

Groundwater flow and contaminant transport modelling at an air weapons range     

Geneviève Bordeleau  Richard Martel  Dirk Schäfer  Guy Ampleman  Sonia Thiboutot 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(2):385-396

Numerical modelling was done at the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range, Canada, to test whether the dissolved RDX and nitrate detected in groundwater come from the same sources, and to predict whether contamination poses a threat to the surface water receptors near the site. Military live fire training activities may indeed pose a risk of contamination to groundwater resources, however field investigations on military bases are quite recent, and little information is available on the long-term behaviour of munition residues related contaminants. Very limited information was available about the contaminant source zones, which were assigned based on our knowledge of current training activities. The RDX plume was well represented with the model, but the heterogeneous distribution of nitrate concentrations was more difficult to reproduce. It was nonetheless determined that both contaminants originate from the same areas. According to the model, both contaminants should reach the nearby river, but concentrations in the river should remain very low if the source zone concentration does not change. Finally, the model allowed the recommendation of a new location for the main bombing target, which would offer added protection to the river and the lake into which it flows.  相似文献   

Die Windverhältnisse im Davoser Hochtal     

M. Schüepp  Ch. Urfer 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1962,12(2):337-349

Zusammenfassung Die Davoser Windverh?ltnisse werden in ihrem tages- und jahreszeitlichen Ablauf sowie in ihrer Abh?ngigkeit von verschiedenen typischen Wetterlagen untersucht. Neben den ungest?rten Sch?nwetterlagen mit ihrem ausgepr?gten Talwind, der wie der Malojawind talabw?rts weht, werden die F?hnstr?mung aus Südwest und die Nordoststr?mung bei Staulagen und Bise kurz besprochen. Gegenüber dem benachbarten Dischmatal zeigt sich ein sp?terer Beginn des Talwindes bei Sch?nwetterlagen, w?hrend im Vergleich zu anderen T?lern, z. B. zum Wallis, ein früheres und schw?cheres nachmitt?gliches Windmaximum auftritt.

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Summary The wind at Davos is analysed in his diurnal and annual variation and in the depence on the different weather types. The fair and undisturbed weather shows a typical valley breeze during the day, but not in the normal direction towards the higher part of the valley, but downstream, similar to the Malojawind in the Engadine. The opposite wind direction, from southwest, characterises the foehn-situation. Northeasterly winds develop in the case of higher pressure north of the Alps (e. g. in situations of barrage). The valley-breeze begins later than in the adjacent Dischma Valley, but it is weaker and reaches the highest intensity earlier than in other valleys, as e. g. in the Valais.

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Résumé Les vents de Davos sont analysés selon leurs variations diurnes et annuelles et selon des types de temps caractéristiques. La situation de beau temps montre un vent de vallée assez accentué, soufflant du haut en bas, donc dans une direction anormale, mais analogue au vent de la Maloja en Engadine. En cas de ?foehn? le vent souffle du sud-ouest tandis qu'un vent du nord-est se manifeste par situations de surpression au nord des Alpes. Le vent de vallée se met à souffler plus tard à Davos que dans la vallée de Dischma toute proche. Il y atteint par contre sa vitesse maximale plus t?t que les vents correspondants d'autres vallées p. ex. du Valais. Le maximum y est cependant moins élevé.

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Mit 6 Textabbildungen

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Herrn Dr.W. M?rikofer zu seinem 70. Geburtstag gewidmet.  相似文献   

Ozone production due to emissions from vegetation burning     

Günter Helas  Jürgen Lobert  Dieter Scharffe  Luise Schäfer  Johann Goldammer  Jean Baudet  Brou Ahoua  Ayité-Lô Ajavon  Jean-Pierre Lacaux  Robert Delmas  Meinrat O. Andreae 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1995,22(1-2):163-174

Ozone has been observed in elevated concentrations by satellites over areas previously believed to be background. There is meteorological evidence, that these ozone plumes found over the Atlantic Ocean originate from vegetation fires on the African continent.In a previous study (DECAFE-88), we have investigated ozone and assumed precursor compounds over African tropical forest regions. Our measurements revealed large photosmog layers at altitudes from 1.5 to 4 km. Both chemical and meteorological evidence point to savanna fires up to several thousand km upwind as sources.Here we describe ozone mixing ratios observed over western Africa and compare ozone production ratios from different field measurement campaigns related to vegetation burning. We find that air masses containing photosmog ingredients require several days to develop their oxidation potential, similar to what is known from air polluted by emissions from fossil fuel burning. Finally, we estimate the global ozone production due to vegetation fires and conclude that this source is comparable in strength to the stratospheric input.  相似文献   

Analysis of COMPTEL gamma-ray burst locations and spectra     

R. M. Kippen  J. Ryan  A. Connors  M. McConnell  C. Winkler  L. O. Hanlon  V. Schönfelder  J. Greiner  M. Varendorff  W. Collmar  W. Hermsen  L. Kuiper 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,231(1-2):231-234

In its first three years of operation, the COMPTEL instrument on theCompton Gamma-Ray Observatory has measured the locations (mean accuracy 1°) and spectra (0.75-30 MeV) of 18 gamma-ray bursts and continues to observe new events at a rate of 1/month. With good angular resolution and sensitivity at MeV energies, the growing COMPTEL burst catalog is an important new piece of evidence in the on-going GRB mystery. The COMPTEL burst locations are consistent with an isotropic distribution of sources, yet the spatial coincidence of two of the bursts indicates the possibility of repetition. The COMPTEL burst spectra are in most cases consistent with a single power law model with spectral index in the range 2–3. However, two bursts show evidence of a spectral break in the MeV range. Measurement of rapid variability at MeV energies in the stronger bursts provides evidence that either the sources are nearby (within the Galaxy) or the gamma-ray emission is relativistically beamed. We present an overview of analysis results obtained from the COMPTEL burst catalog concentrating on the search for burst repetition and the implications of highly variable MeV emission.  相似文献   

Coalescing neutron stars as gamma ray bursters?     

M. Ruffert  H. -Th. Janka  G. Schäfer 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,231(1-2):423-426

We investigate the dynamics and evolution of coalescing neutron stars. The three-dimensional Newtonian equations of hydrodynamics are integrated by the Piecewise Parabolic Method on an equidistant Cartesian grid. The code is purely Newtonian, but does include the emission of gravitational waves and their back-reaction. The properties of neutron star matter are described by the equation of state of Lattimer and Swesty (1991). Energy loss by all types of neutrinos and changes of the electron fraction due to the emission of electron neutrinos and antineutrinos are taken into account by an elaborate neutrino leakage scheme. We simulate the coalescence of two identical, cool neutron stars with a baryonic mass of 1.6M and a radius of 15 km and with an initial center-to-center distance of 42 km. The initial distributions of density and electron concentration are given from a model of a cold neutron star in hydrostatic equilibrium. We investigate three cases which differ by the initial velocity distribution in the neutron stars. The orbit decays due to gravitational-wave emission and after one revolution the stars are so close that dynamical instability sets in. Within 1 ms the neutron stars merge into a rapidly spinning (P 1 ms), high-density body ( 10¹⁴ g/cm³) with a surrounding thick disk of material with densities 10¹⁰ – 10¹² g/cm³ and orbital velocities of 0.3-0.5 c. The peak emission of gravitational waves has a maximum luminosity of a few times 10⁵⁵ erg/s and is reached for about 1 ms. The amplitudes of the gravitational waves are close to 3 10^–23 at a distance of 1 Gpc and the typical frequency is near the dynamical value of the orbital motion of the merging neutron stars of 2 KHz. In a post-processing step, the rate of neutrino-antineutrino annihilation is calculated from the neutrino luminosities generated during the hydrodynamical simulations. We find the integral annihilation rate to be a few 10⁵⁰ erg/s during the phase of strongest neutrino emission, which is too small to generate the observed bursts considering the fact that the merged object of about 3M will most likely collapse to a black hole within milliseconds.  相似文献   

Une approche innovante pour modéliser la biodégradation des composés organochlorés volatils en aquifères poreux     

Fabien Nex  Gerhard Schäfer  Jean-Marie Côme  Timothy M. Vogel 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2006,338(5):297-306

The goal of this study was to develop an innovative chloroethene biodegradation module based on biological, thermodynamical and mechanistic concepts. The biodegradation scheme was based on the postulate that in each part of an aquifer only one degradation mechanism is dominant: the one involving the most energetic electron acceptor. Thus, the selection of the active degradation mechanism was a function of the concentration of different electron acceptors. Modified Monod-type kinetics was used in order to take into account the possible influence of some compounds on the biodegradation of a given organic compound. The numerical model developed was applied to a simple test case, whose results are presented here. To cite this article: F. Nex et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   

Assessing the Vibrational Frequencies of the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) by Means of Ambient Seismic Noise Analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Andreas Fäcke  Stefano Parolai  Sandra M. Richwalski  Lothar Stempniewski 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):229-236

Ambient seismic noise measurements were conducted inside the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) for assessing its frequencies of vibration and for checking whether these occur in the range where soil amplification is expected. If this is the case, damages may increase in case of an earthquake due to an increased structural response of the building. Analysis of the ratio between the horizontal and vertical components of the spectra recorded at stations located inside the building as well as the ratio between the corresponding components of the spectra recorded simultaneously inside the building and at a reference station placed in the basement of the cathedral indicated several modes of vibration. Facilitated by these results an assessment of the seismic vulnerability was attempted for a 2D ground motion scenario using the finite element method.  相似文献   

Dissolved Trace Metal–Organic Complexes in the Lot–Garonne River System Determined Using the C18 Sep-Pak System     

E. Lemaire  G. Blanc  J. Schäfer  A. Coynel  H. Etcheber 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2006,12(1):21-38

An 11-month observation of dissolved and particulate organic matter, chlorophyll a(Chl a), C18 Sep-Pak extractable hydrophobic dissolved organic matter (hDOM) fraction and associated dissolved trace metals (Cd, Cu, V, Co, Ni, Mo, U) was performed in the Lot–Garonne River system. This system includes the Riou Mort, the Lot River and the downstream reaches of the Garonne River and represents the fluvial transport path of trace metals between the major point source of polymetallic pollution, located in the Riou Mort watershed and the Gironde estuary. Spatial and temporal variations of dissolved and particulate organic carbon and Chl areflect the presence of different types of organic matter and their relation with the hDOM fraction. Maximum Chl a/POC ratios (up to 0.03), indicate intense phytoplankton production from March to May. In the Lot River (Temple), DOC and POC concentrations were clearly higher and mean Chl a concentration (2.8 mg g⁻¹) was about three times higher than those of the other sites. High Chl a/POC ratios suggest high phytoplankton activity with maxima in spring and late summer. In the Riou Mort River, very high POC concentrations of up to 40 (mean: 20) occurred, whereas Chl a concentrations were relatively low indicating low phytoplankton activity. High, strongly variable DOC and POC concentrations suggest important natural (Carboniferous soils, forests) or anthropogenic (e.g., former coal mines, waste areas, agriculture, sewage) carbon sources within the small Riou Mort watershed. Despite high DOC concentrations in the Riou Mort River, hDOM metal fractions were generally lower than those at the other sites. The general order of decreasing binding strength between metals and the organic hydrophobic phase (Cu, U > Co, Ni > V, Mo > Cd) at all four sites was in good agreement with the Irving–William series of transition element affinity towards organic ligands. Accordingly, the role of the hydrophobic phase in dissolved Cd transport appeared to be negligible, whereas the hDOM–Cu fraction strongly contributed to dissolved Cu transport.  相似文献   

Zum 80. Geburtstag von Hermann Heynig     

Dr.Lothar Tuscher 《Limnologica》2003,33(4):355-358

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