Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

A. F. Prein  A. Gobiet  M. Suklitsch  H. Truhetz  N. K. Awan  K. Keuler  G. Georgievski 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2655-2677

In this study the added value of a ensemble of convection permitting climate simulations (CPCSs) compared to coarser gridded simulations is investigated. The ensemble consists of three non hydrostatic regional climate models providing five simulations with ~10 and ~3 km (CPCS) horizontal grid spacing each. The simulated temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and global radiation fields are evaluated within two seasons (JJA 2007 and DJF 2007–2008) in the eastern part of the European Alps. Spatial variability, diurnal cycles, temporal correlations, and distributions with focus on extreme events are analyzed and specific methods (FSS and SAL) are used for in-depth analysis of precipitation fields. The most important added value of CPCSs are found in the diurnal cycle improved timing of summer convective precipitation, the intensity of most extreme precipitation, and the size and shape of precipitation objects. These improvements are not caused by the higher resolved orography but by the explicit treatment of deep convection and the more realistic model dynamics. In contrary improvements in summer temperature fields can be fully attributed to the higher resolved orography. Generally, added value of CPCSs is predominantly found in summer, in complex terrain, on small spatial and temporal scales, and for high precipitation intensities.  相似文献   

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation     

Pichelli  Emanuela  Coppola  Erika  Sobolowski  Stefan  Ban  Nikolina  Giorgi  Filippo  Stocchi  Paolo  Alias  Antoinette  Belu&#;i&#;  Danijel  Berthou  Segolene  Caillaud  Cecile  Cardoso  Rita M.  Chan  Steven  Christensen  Ole B&#;ssing  Dobler  Andreas  de Vries  Hylke  Goergen  Klaus  Kendon  Elizabeth J.  Keuler  Klaus  Lenderink  Geert  Lorenz  Torge  Mishra  Aditya N.  Panitz  Hans-Juergen  Sch&#;r  Christoph  Soares  Pedro M. M.  Truhetz  Heimo  Vergara-Temprado  Jesus 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(11):3581-3602

This paper presents the first multi-model ensemble of 10-year, “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale regional climate model (RCM) scenario simulations downscaled from selected CMIP5 GCM projections for historical and end of century time slices. The technique is to first downscale the CMIP5 GCM projections to an intermediate 12–15 km resolution grid using RCMs, and then use these fields to downscale further to the kilometer scale. The aim of the paper is to provide an overview of the representation of the precipitation characteristics and their projected changes over the greater Alpine domain within a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study and the European Climate Prediction system project, tasked with investigating convective processes at the kilometer scale. An ensemble of 12 simulations performed by different research groups around Europe is analyzed. The simulations are evaluated through comparison with high resolution observations while the complementary ensemble of 12 km resolution driving models is used as a benchmark to evaluate the added value of the convection-permitting ensemble. The results show that the kilometer-scale ensemble is able to improve the representation of fine scale details of mean daily, wet-day/hour frequency, wet-day/hour intensity and heavy precipitation on a seasonal scale, reducing uncertainty over some regions. It also improves the representation of the summer diurnal cycle, showing more realistic onset and peak of convection. The kilometer-scale ensemble refines and enhances the projected patterns of change from the coarser resolution simulations and even modifies the sign of the precipitation intensity change and heavy precipitation over some regions. The convection permitting simulations also show larger changes for all indices over the diurnal cycle, also suggesting a change in the duration of convection over some regions. A larger positive change of frequency of heavy to severe precipitation is found. The results are encouraging towards the use of convection-permitting model ensembles to produce robust assessments of the local impacts of future climate change.

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Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11^{\circ } and 0.44^{\circ } simulations: high resolution,high benefits?     

A. F. Prein  A. Gobiet  H. Truhetz  K. Keuler  K. Goergen  C. Teichmann  C. Fox Maule  E. van Meijgaard  M. Déqué  G. Nikulin  R. Vautard  A. Colette  E. Kjellström  D. Jacob 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(1-2):383-412

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Error characteristics of high resolution regional climate models over the Alpine area     

Martin Suklitsch  Andreas Gobiet  Heimo Truhetz  Nauman Khurshid Awan  Holger Göttel  Daniela Jacob 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(1-2):377-390

This study describes typical error ranges of high resolution regional climate models operated over complex orography and investigates the scale-dependence of these error ranges. The results are valid primarily for the European Alpine region, but to some extent they can also be transferred to other orographically complex regions of the world. We investigate the model errors by evaluating a set of 62 one-year hindcast experiments for the year 1999 with four different regional climate models. The analysis is conducted for the parameters mean sea level pressure, air temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) and precipitation (mean, frequency and intensity), both as an area average over the whole modeled domain (the “Greater Alpine Region”, GAR) and in six subregions. The subregional seasonal error ranges, defined as the interval between the 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile, lie between ?3.2 and +2.0 K for temperature and between ?2.0 and +3.1 mm/day (?45.7 and +94.7%) for precipitation, respectively. While the temperature error ranges are hardly broadened at smaller scales, the precipitation error ranges increase by 28%. These results demonstrate that high resolution RCMs are applicable in relatively small scale climate impact studies with a comparable quality as on well investigated larger scales as far as temperature is concerned. For precipitation, which is a much more demanding parameter, the quality is moderately degraded on smaller scales.  相似文献