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Abstract Techniques are proposed for developing a monthly and weekly drought outlook and the drought outlook components are evaluated. A drought index, the surface water supply index (SWSI) was modified and used for the drought outlook. A water balance model (abcd) was successfully calibrated using a regional regression, including monthly and weekly factors, and was used to convert meteorology to hydrology. For the monthly drought outlook, an ensemble technique was applied, both with and without monthly industrial meteorology information (MIMI). For the weekly drought outlook, a deterministic forecasting technique was applied employing the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS). The methodologies were applied to the Geum River basin in Korea. While only the weekly outlook using the GDAPS has sufficient forecasting capability to suggest it might be useful, the accuracy of the monthly drought outlook is expected to improve as the climate forecast accuracy increases. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes Citation Kim, Y.-O., Lee, J.-K., and Palmer, R.N., 2012. A drought outlook study in Korea. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1141–1153. 相似文献
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Hydrological modelling uncertainty analysis for different flow quantiles: a case study in two hydro-geographically different watersheds 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This study focuses on analysis of hydrological model parameter uncertainty at varying sub-basin spatial scales. It was found that the variation in sub-basin spatial scale had little influence on the entire flow simulations. However, the different sub-basin spatial scales had a significant impact on the reproduction of the flow quantiles. The coarser sub-basin spatial scale provided a better coverage of most prediction uncertainty in observations. However, the finer sub-basin spatial scale produced the best single simulation output closer to the observations. In general, the optimal sub-basin spatial scales (ratio to the entire watershed size) in the two test watersheds were found to be in the ranges 14–19% and 2–4% for good simulation of high and low flows, respectively. It is therefore worthwhile to put more effort into reproducing different flow quantiles by investigating an appropriate sub-basin spatial scale. 相似文献
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Flood risk assessment using regional regression analysis 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
This study aimed to create a flood risk map for ungauged regions, which have limited flood damage data and other relevant data. The fact that there is a shortage of data that are critical for the establishment of a flood assessment and mitigation plan is not surprising even in developed countries like South Korea. To address this problem, the regional regression concept in statistical hydrology was introduced to the flood risk assessment field in this study, and it was framed with a series of two regression functions: flood damage and regional coefficients. As the second regression function utilizes the local socioeconomic variables, the resulting flood risk map can reflect the spatial characteristics well. The proposed methodology was applied to create flood risk maps for the three metropolitan areas in South Korea. The comparison of the proposed methodology with the existing methods revealed that only the proposed methodology can produce a statistically meaningful flood risk map based on a recent major flood in 2001. 相似文献
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Integrated watershed management for mitigating streamflow depletion in an urbanized watershed in Korea 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
A systematic, seven-step approach to integrated watershed planning and management is applied to an urbanized watershed, the Anyangcheon (AY) watershed in Korea which consists of (1) understanding watershed components and processes, (2) identifying and ranking problems to be solved, (3) setting clear and specific goals, (4) developing a list of management options, (5) eliminating infeasible options (6) testing the effectiveness of remaining feasible options, and (7) developing the final options. Watershed characteristics, water quantity and quality simulations with SWAT and PLOAD models, and the developed problem indices of PFD (Potential Flood Damage), PSD (Potential Streamflow Depletion), and PWQD (Potential Water Quality Deterioration) identify that streamflow depletion is more serious than flood risk and water pollution in the study watershed (Steps 1 and 2). Instreamflow requirements, which are the maximum value of the average low flow and the fish flow, are estimated using regional regression and the software PHABSIM (Step 3). Feasible solutions that improve the depleted streams are listed and screened qualitatively against technical, economical, and environmental criteria (Steps 4 and 5). Effectiveness of the remaining 14 feasible alternatives are then analyzed using SWAT (Step 6) and alternative evaluation index (AEI) and their priority ranks are determined against an evaluation criterion that uses the concept of pressure, state, and response (Step 7). 相似文献
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Climate Dynamics - The atmospheric jet and blocking distributions, especially in the North Atlantic sector, have been challenging features for a climate model to realistically reproduce. This study... 相似文献
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The winter response of the coupled atmosphere?Cocean mixed layer system to anomalous geostrophic ocean heat flux convergence in the Kuroshio Extension is investigated by means of experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an entraining ocean mixed layer model in the extra-tropics. The direct response consists of positive SST anomalies along the Kuroshio Extension and a baroclinic (low-level trough and upper-level ridge) circulation anomaly over the North Pacific. The low-level component of this atmospheric circulation response is weaker in the case without coupling to an extratropical ocean mixed layer, especially in late winter. The inclusion of an interactive mixed layer in the tropics modifies the direct coupled atmospheric response due to a northward displacement of the Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone which drives an equivalent barotropic anomalous ridge over the North Pacific. Although the tropically driven component of the North Pacific atmospheric circulation response is comparable to the direct response in terms of sea level pressure amplitude, it is less important in terms of wind stress curl amplitude due to the mitigating effect of the relatively broad spatial scale of the tropically forced atmospheric teleconnection. 相似文献
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Stochastically-driven multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CCSM3 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the last 250?years of the 700-year-long present-day control integration of the Community Climate System Model version 3 with T85 atmospheric resolution exhibits a red noise-like irregular multi-decadal variability with a persistence longer than 10?years, which markedly contrasts with the preceding ~300 years of very regular and stronger AMOC variability with ~20?year periodicity. The red noise-like multi-decadal AMOC variability is primarily forced by the surface fluxes associated with stochastic changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that intensify and shift northward the deep convection in the Labrador Sea. However, the persistence of the AMOC and the associated oceanic anomalies that are directly forced by the NAO forcing does not exceed about 5?years. The additional persistence originates from anomalous horizontal advection and vertical mixing, which generate density anomalies on the continental shelf along the eastern boundary of the subpolar gyre. These anomalies are subsequently advected by the mean boundary current into the northern part of the Labrador Sea convection region, reinforcing the density changes directly forced by the NAO. As no evidence was found of a clear two-way coupling with the atmosphere, the multi-decadal AMOC variability in the last 250?years of the integration is an ocean-only response to stochastic NAO forcing with a delayed positive feedback caused by the changes in the horizontal ocean circulation. 相似文献
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