Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100     

J. M. Gregory  J. A. Church  G. J. Boer  K. W. Dixon  G. M. Flato  D. R. Jackett  J. A. Lowe  S. P. O'Farrell  E. Roeckner  G. L. Russell  R. J. Stouffer  M. Winton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):225-240

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001  相似文献   

Fluid sources for the La Guitarra epithermal deposit (Temascaltepec district, Mexico): Volatile and helium isotope analyses in fluid inclusions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Antoni Camprubí  Beverly A. Chomiak  Ruth E. Villanueva-Estrada  David I. Norman  Martin Stute 《Chemical Geology》2006,231(3):252-284

The La Guitarra deposit (Temascaltepec district, South-Central Mexico), belongs to the low/intermediate sulfidation epithermal type, has a polymetallic character although it is currently being mined for Ag and Au. The mineralization shows a polyphasic character and formed through several stages and sub-stages (named I, IIA, IIB, IIC, IID, and III). The previous structural, mineralogical, fluid inclusion and stable isotope studies were used to constrain the selection of samples for volatile and helium isotope analyses portrayed in this study. The N₂/Ar overall range obtained from analytical runs on fluid inclusion volatiles, by means of Quadrupole Mass Spectrometry (QMS), is 0 to 2526, and it ranges 0 to 2526 for stage I, 0 to 1264 for stage IIA, 0 to 1369 for stage IIB, 11 to 2401 for stage IIC, 19 to 324 for stage IID, and 0 to 2526 for stage III. These values, combined with the CO₂/CH₄ ratios, and N₂-He-Ar and N₂-CH₄-Ar relationships, suggest the occurrence of fluids from magmatic, crustal, and shallow meteoric sources in the forming epithermal vein deposit. The helium isotope analyses, obtained by means of Noble Gas Mass Spectrometry, display R/Ra average values between 0.5 and 2, pointing to the occurrence of mantle-derived helium that was relatively diluted or “contaminated” by crustal helium. These volatile analyses, when correlated with the stable isotope data from previous works and He isotope data, show the same distribution of data concerning sources for mineralizing fluids, especially those corresponding to magmatic and crustal sources. Thus, the overall geochemical data from mineralizing fluids are revealed as intrinsically consistent when compared to each other.The three main sources for mineralizing fluids (magmatic, and both deep and shallow meteoric fluids) are accountable at any scale, from stages of mineralization down to specific mineral associations. The volatile and helium isotope data obtained in this paper suggest that the precious metal-bearing mineral associations formed after hydrothermal pulses of predominantly oxidized magmatic fluids, and thus it is likely that precious metals were carried by fluids with such origin. Minerals from base-metal sulfide associations record both crustal and magmatic sources for mineralizing fluids, thus suggesting that base metals could be derived from deep leaching of crustal rocks. At the La Guitarra epithermal deposit there is no evidence for an evolution of mineralizing fluids towards any dominant source. Rather than that, volatile analyses in fluid inclusions suggest that this deposit formed as a pulsing hydrothermal system where each pulse or set of pulses accounts for different compositions of mineralizing fluids.The positive correlation between the relative content of magmatic fluids (high N₂/Ar ratios) and H₂S suggests that the necessary sulfur to carry mostly gold as bisulfide complexes came essentially from magmatic sources. Chlorine necessary to carry silver and base metals was found to be abundant in inclusion fluids and although there is no evidence about its source, it is plausible that it may come from magmatic sources as well.  相似文献   

Chemical denudation rates in Kärkevagge, Swedish Lapland     

Sean W. Campbell  John C. Dixon  Colin E. Thorn  & Robert G. Darmody 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2002,84(3&4):179-185

This study examines the spatial and temporal variability of chemical denudation rates in Kärkevagge, northern Sweden. The chemical flux rates within the valley are strongly influenced by the local geology. Chemical denudation rates determined for the study period are more than double those previously reported in the literature for this valley. Rates of greater than 46t km⁻² a⁻¹ were measured at the valley mouth over the course of the melt season. This difference is likely due to differences in measurement technique compared to that used by past researchers. This rate is also much higher than for other arctic and alpine watersheds. Chemical denudation in Kärkevagge is comparable to larger temperate rivers. The rapid chemical denudation in Kärkevagge is likely due to sulfide weathering creating acid solutions.  相似文献   

Enigmatic Efflorescence in Kärkevagge, Swedish Lapland: The Key to Chemical Weathering?     

Robert G. Darmody  Sean W. Campbell  John C. Dixon  & Colin E. Thorn 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2002,84(3-4):187-192

The second marvel to catch the eye of the visitor to Kärkevagge, after the impressive boulder deposit on the floor of the valley, is the series of prominent white stripes running down the valley's dark cliffs. Streams and springs descending the eastern flank of Kärkevagge are marked by the presence of whitish coatings on the black rock surfaces and on cobbles lining ephemeral waterways. These were referred to as 'lime crusts' by early investigators, but they are not reactive to HCl. We believe that they are a precipitate resulting from acid attack on the local rocks. Pyrite is common in many of the rocks in the valley and its oxidation produces sulfuric acid. As the dissolved mineral elements are carried in the drainage water, efflorescence forms on the surfaces where the water flows due to evaporation or to changes in temperature. The exact mineralogy of the white crusts is unknown, but the crusts are dominated by Al, S, and O, and in some cases by Ca, depending on the substrate and local conditions. Gypsum, illite, and chlorite have been identified by X–ray diffraction of some scrapings of white–coated rocks. However, we believe that some unidentified oxy–hydroxy aluminum sulfates make up the bulk of the precipitates.  相似文献   

July 2003     

A. K. Dixon  T. J. Vogl 《Environmental Geology》2003,44(4):497-500

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FOREWORD     

Robert K. Dixon 《Climatic change》1997,36(1-2):1-2

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Groundwater vulnerability mapping: A GIS and fuzzy rule based integrated tool   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

B. Dixon   《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2005,25(4):327-347

Contamination of groundwater has become a major concern in recent years. Since testing of water quality of all domestic and irrigation wells within large watersheds is not economically feasible, one frequently used monitoring strategy is to develop contamination potential maps of groundwater, and then prioritize those wells located in the potentially highly contaminated areas for testing of contaminants. However, generation of contamination potential maps based on groundwater sensitivity and vulnerability is not an easy task due inherent uncertainty. Therefore, the overall goal of this research is to improve the methodology for the generation of contamination potential maps by using detailed landuse/pesticide and soil structure information in conjunction with selected parameters from the DRASTIC model. The specific objectives of this study are (i) to incorporate GIS, GPS, remote sensing and the fuzzy rule-based model to generate groundwater sensitivity maps, and (ii) compare the results of our new methodologies with the modified DRASTIC Index (DI) and field water quality data. In this study, three different models were developed (viz. DI_fuzz, VI_fuzz and VI_{fuzz_ped}) and were compared to the DI. Once the preliminary fuzzy logic-based (DI_fuzz) was generated using selected parameters from DI, the methodology was further refined through VI_fuzz and VI_{fuzz_ped} models that incorporated landuse/pesticide application and soil structure information, respectively. This study was conducted in Woodruff County of the Mississippi Delta region of Arkansas. Water quality data for 55 wells were used to evaluate the contamination potential maps. The sensitivity map generated by VI_{fuzz_ped} with soil structure showed significantly better coincidence results when compared with the field data.  相似文献   

Balancing trade‐off issues in land use change and the impact on streamflow and salinity management          下载免费PDF全文

Xiang Cheng  Kurt K. Benke  Craig Beverly  Brendan Christy  Anna Weeks  Kirsten Barlow  Mark Reid 《水文研究》2014,28(4):1641-1662

The south‐west region of the Goulburn–Broken catchment in the south‐eastern Murray–Darling Basin in Australia faces a range of natural resource challenges. A balanced strategy is required to achieve the contrasting objectives of remediation of land salinization and reducing salt export, while maintaining water supply security to satisfy human consumption and support ecosystems. This study linked the Catchment Analysis Tool (CAT), comprising a suite of farming system models, to the catchment‐scale CATNode hydrological model to investigate the effects of land use change and climate variation on catchment streamflow and salt export. The modelling explored and contrasted the impacts of a series of different revegetation and climate scenarios. The results indicated that targeted revegetation to only satisfy biodiversity outcomes within a catchment is unlikely to have much greater impact on streamflow and salt load in comparison with simple random plantings. Additionally, the results also indicated that revegetation to achieve salt export reduction can effectively reduce salt export while having a disproportionately smaller affect on streamflows. Furthermore, streamflow declines can be minimized by targeting revegetation activities without significantly altering salt export. The study also found that climate change scenarios will have an equal if not more significant impact on these issues over the next 70 years. Uncertainty in CATNode streamflow predictions was investigated because of the effect of parameter uncertainty. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework     

Barbara A. Muhling  Carlos F. Gaitán  Charles A. Stock  Vincent S. Saba  Desiree Tommasi  Keith W. Dixon 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(2):349-372

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.  相似文献   

Swelling capacity and permeability of an unprocessed and a processed bentonitic clay     

D.W. Oscarson  D.A. Dixon  M.N. Gray 《Engineering Geology》1990,28(3-4):281-289

Research on the longevity of potential bentonite-based barrier materials is an important part of the Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Program. Valuable information on the longterm effectiveness of bentonitic barriers can be obtained by examining the properties of unprocessed bentonites from natural deposits. This study compares the swelling capacity (P_s) and hydraulic conductivity (K) of an unprocessed (clay that has not been ground and dried by the supplier) and a processed bentonite from south-central Saskatchewan, Canada. The clay deposit is 75 to 85 Ma old. At a given clay density, the processed bentonite exhibits a greater P₃ and a lower K than the unprocessed clay. This can be at least partially attributed to the partial cementation of the unprocessed bentonite particles; this cementation is likely ruptured when the clay is ground during processing. Even though K for the unprocessed clay is higher than that of the processed clay, it is still low enough (< 10¹¹m/s) to meet the permeability requirements of a barrier material in a nuclear fuel waste disposal vault. The unprocessed clay also has the has the ability to self seal: exposure to water, the normalized flow rate of water through some samples was as high as 10^-5 m³/s, but the rate rapidly decreased to < 10^-10m³/s the clay absorbed water and swelled. The data indicate that the unprocessed bentonite clay maintains anacceptably high swelling capacity and low permeability millions of years after deposition.  相似文献