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1.
Estimation and prediction of the spatial occurrence of fish species using Bayesian latent Gaussian models 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
Facundo Muñoz M. Grazia Pennino David Conesa Antonio López-Quílez José M. Bellido 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(5):1171-1180
A methodological approach for modelling the occurrence patterns of species for the purpose of fisheries management is proposed here. The presence/absence of the species is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian spatial model using the geographical and environmental characteristics of each fishing location. Maps of predicted probabilities of presence are generated using Bayesian kriging. Bayesian inference on the parameters and prediction of presence/absence in new locations (Bayesian kriging) are made by considering the model as a latent Gaussian model, which allows the use of the integrated nested Laplace approximation ( INLA ) software (which has been seen to be quite a bit faster than the well-known MCMC methods). In particular, the spatial effect has been implemented with the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The methodology is evaluated on Mediterranean horse mackerel (Trachurus mediterraneus) in the Western Mediterranean. The analysis shows that environmental and geographical factors can play an important role in directing local distribution and variability in the occurrence of species. Although this approach is used to recognize the habitat of mackerel, it could also be for other different species and life stages in order to improve knowledge of fish populations and communities. 相似文献
2.
Mine tailings are ubiquitous in the landscapes of mined areas. Metal solubilities were compared in two chemically distinct mine tailings from the old Mining District of Cartagena-La Unión (SE Spain). One of the tailings was acidic (pH 3.0) with 5400 mg/kg Zn, 1900 mg/kg As and 7000 mg/kg Pb. The other was neutral (pH 7.4) with 9100 mg/kg Zn, 5200 mg/kg Pb and 350 mg/kg As. In samples from the acidic tailings, more than 15% of the Zn and 55% of the Cd were extractable with 0.1 M NaNO3, and distilled water. In the neutral tailings, using the same reagents, less than 1% of the metals were extractable. A sequential extraction procedure revealed that the sum of the residual and the Fe oxide fractions of Cu, Zn and Pb comprised 80–95% in the acidic tailings and 70–90% in the neutral tailings. The acidic mine tailings had a higher metal solubility, resulting in more metal leaching in the short-term, but also a higher fraction of inert metal. In contrast, in the neutral tailings, the metals were evenly distributed between, oxides and the residual fraction. This implies lower metal mobility in the short-term, but that metal mobility may increase in the long-term. When applied to mine tailings, sequential extractions may provide misleading results because the strong cation exchange capacity of some extractants may induce pH changes and thereby significantly change metal solubility. 相似文献
3.
Most road‐stream crossings over ephemeral channels are vulnerable to extreme hydrologic events. Ford stream crossings (FSCs) are usually dangerous for the road traffic during periods of high flow, in particular under flash flood conditions. The present paper analyzes the flood hazards on the Mediterranean coast in the Region of Murcia (south‐east Spain), affecting this type of road‐stream crossing over dry channels, according to hydraulic variables and bedload transport rates estimated for discharges at bankfull and flood‐prone stages. Under such conditions, the safety of people and vehicles was obtained using numerical models, developed by previous researchers; in particular, water levels and flow velocities across ford reaches were compared with different trend curves between water depths and corresponding critical velocities for children and adults, and for various prototype vehicles. Specifically, two approaches to assess this type of hazards were proposed: a specific Hydraulic Hazard Index and an algorithm for estimating the flood hazard from criteria of bed stability and bedload transport capacity (Flood Hazard at Fords, FHF). In addition, different exposure levels were established, using a Flood Vulnerability Index, based on the FHF, the road category, and the annual average daily traffic. The FHF model gave the best results with regard to the magnitude of the damage observed in recent flash floods for flow stages similar to those simulated. According to the danger thresholds established for this index, half‐bankfull flows represent here a high risk: 27.3% of FSCs for mini‐cars and 18.2% for large cars. At bankfull, the FHF exhibits very high values for mini‐cars (77.3% of FSCs) and for large passenger vehicles (50% of FSCs), while at the floodprone stage, extreme FHF values are reached for all kinds of vehicles at most of the ford crossings. 相似文献
4.
The present study proposes a method for evaluating the effectiveness of road‐crossing drainage culverts in ephemeral streams. This approach is focused on estimating the culvert capacity in road–stream crossings and the probable runoff generated on the road from hydrological thresholds associated with hydromorphological criteria. In particular, discharges at bankfull and flood‐prone stages have been used in combination with 2.5 and 100‐year peak discharges. Different hydraulic variables have been considered for calculating the discharge through culverts under these conditions (e.g. tailwater and headwater depth, inlet control, pipe roughness, pipe cross‐area and slope, pipe outlet velocity, critical water depth, and flow rate over the road). Geomorphological factors such as bed stability, bed load transport, and channel roughness have also been considered because of their potential for obstructing the drains in this type of channel. In addition, a potential obstruction index (PIOBSTR) has been calculated, as a dependent parameter of the obstacle index (IOBST) and the potential build‐up of coarse sediments (PBCS). The study has been carried out on the Mediterranean coast in the region of Murcia (Spain), where there are numerous examples of road–stream crossings equipped with culverts in ephemeral channels that could cause highly dangerous situations for road traffic. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
The Mar Menor lagoon is one of the most important ecological singularities in the Mediterranean area. At the same time, it is an area where many economic and industrial activities meet. The sum of the impacts of mining, agriculture and urban development in the surroundings to the lagoon during the last decades has affected its ecosystem. In this paper, we have reviewed the studies done by researchers over two decades regarding the impacts of human activities in the lagoon, reporting data of contamination levels and the effects generated in the ecosystem of the lagoon. The discharge of enriched nutrient waters seems to be the most important input in the lagoon. Changes to more friendly agricultural techniques in the surrounding areas are therefore necessary. After our review, we can conclude that it is necessary to have higher efforts from the public administrations and stricter environmental regulations in order to preserve, on one hand, the important ecological values of the lagoon, and on other hand, public health. 相似文献
6.
Correlations and sequence stratigraphic model for Messinian carbonate platforms of the western and central Mediterranean 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jean-Jacques?CornéeEmail author Jean-Paul?Saint Martin Gilles?Conesa Philippe?Münch Jean-Pierre?André Simona?Saint Martin Stefan?Roger 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2004,93(4):621-633
Distance correlations of Late Tortonian–Messinian littoral carbonate complexes are proposed from the study of eight platforms in the western and central Mediterranean. Correlations are based on the identification of two major biological sedimentary cycles and of two index surfaces. Surface A is a maximum flooding surface during cycle 1 at around 6.7 Ma. Surface B is a regional marine planation surface at around 5.95 Ma, at the base of cycle 2 (Terminal Carbonate Complex). A general sedimentary model is proposed for the 7–5.6-Ma time-span. The boundary between cycles 1 and 2 is coincident with the onset of the Messinian Salinity Crisis, and appears to be related to major environmental–paleo-oceanographic changes in the Mediterranean, rather than to a major sea-level drop or to climatic change. 相似文献
7.
The undrained stability of slopes in anisotropic fine-grained soils is studied in this paper using the finite element method (FEM). A constitutive model is presented, able to account for the observed variation of undrained strength with loading direction. The model is able to encompass the different strength distributions observed in normally, slightly overconsolidated and heavily overconsolidated soils. A series of stability analyses have been performed to explore the effect of the type of undrained strength anisotropy on the stability and failure mechanisms of slopes of different inclinations. In addition, a real case study of the failure of an underwater slope is analysed with the numerical approach presented. It suggests that, by considering undrained strength anisotropy, the failure can be satisfactorily explained. 相似文献
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9.
The effects of check dams on the bed stability of torrential channels have been analysed in several tributary basins of the Segura and Guadalentín rivers (South‐East Spain). In order to illustrate the large variability in channel bed‐forms and bed sediment sizes along the stream, 52 reaches of 150 m in length were surveyed. This variability is due to the behaviour of check dams, which depends on bedrock control, bed slope, channel roughness, lateral sediment input and a highly variable sediment transport capacity. Though the purpose of check dams is to diminish the boundary shear stress, reducing the longitudinal slope, and to stabilize the channel bed, downstream they reduce the volume of channel‐stored material, favouring local scour processes, and upstream they can destabilize the sidewalls. The results enable us to evaluate the impact of every check dam on the bed morphology, distinguishing the structures installed in limy marl areas (e.g. catchment of the Cárcavo rambla, Cieza) and in schist and slate terrains (e.g. catchment of the Torrecilla rambla, close to Lorca). In the first type, bedrock and moderately thick granular beds predominate downstream from the check dams, so that the length of bedrock reaches and increase of roughness due to scour processes are the best indicators to verify its geomorphological effectiveness. On the other hand, the metamorphic areas drained by ramblas and gullies produce great quantities of gravel that are retained by check dams, creating more uniform and permeable beds, where the balance between sedimentation and scouring, and the ratio τc84/τ0 (RBS), appear to be the parameters most frequently adopted to estimate the bed stability. Analysis of slope adjustments and the application of other indices to estimate the bed substrate stability (LRBS, SRI) and the structural influence of the dams (SIBS) corroborate the differences in bed stability found in the corrected reaches in each catchment. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Ph. Münch J.-J. Cornée G. Féraud J.-P. Saint Martin M. Ferrandini F. Garcia G. Conesa S. Roger M. Moullade 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2006,95(3):491-503
The Melilla carbonate complex (NE Morocco) is the only area of the Paleo-Mediterranean Sea where volcanic activity was present throughout most of the Messinian. 40Ar/39Ar dating of volcanic tuffs interbedded within the upper Messinian sedimentary deposits, known as the Terminal Carbonate Complex (TCC), yields accurate ages of paleoenvironmental and sea-level changes related to the Messinian Salinity Crisis. The new chronologic data (1) provide an average of 5.95–5.99 Ma for the base of the TCC, thus being synchronous with the onset of the Messinian Salinity Crisis, (2) demonstrate for the first time that the basal unconformity of the TCC does not represent a hiatus of long duration, (3) define a precise time line at 5.87±0.02 Ma (2σ) corresponding to sedimentary rocks exhibiting a lateral transition between continental and marine deposits typical of the TCC and (4) yield evidence that emersion of the Melilla platform during deposition of the TCC is partly related to tectono-magmatic activity. An erosional surface, capping the TCC deposits in the Melilla basin, is related to the major Messinian Mediterranean drawdown. The duration of the hiatus, associated with this surface, is estimated to be at most 450 kyr, but is probably shorter. 相似文献