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1.
Estimation and prediction of the spatial occurrence of fish species using Bayesian latent Gaussian models 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
Facundo Muñoz M. Grazia Pennino David Conesa Antonio López-Quílez José M. Bellido 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(5):1171-1180
A methodological approach for modelling the occurrence patterns of species for the purpose of fisheries management is proposed here. The presence/absence of the species is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian spatial model using the geographical and environmental characteristics of each fishing location. Maps of predicted probabilities of presence are generated using Bayesian kriging. Bayesian inference on the parameters and prediction of presence/absence in new locations (Bayesian kriging) are made by considering the model as a latent Gaussian model, which allows the use of the integrated nested Laplace approximation ( INLA ) software (which has been seen to be quite a bit faster than the well-known MCMC methods). In particular, the spatial effect has been implemented with the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The methodology is evaluated on Mediterranean horse mackerel (Trachurus mediterraneus) in the Western Mediterranean. The analysis shows that environmental and geographical factors can play an important role in directing local distribution and variability in the occurrence of species. Although this approach is used to recognize the habitat of mackerel, it could also be for other different species and life stages in order to improve knowledge of fish populations and communities. 相似文献
2.
Mine tailings are ubiquitous in the landscapes of mined areas. Metal solubilities were compared in two chemically distinct mine tailings from the old Mining District of Cartagena-La Unión (SE Spain). One of the tailings was acidic (pH 3.0) with 5400 mg/kg Zn, 1900 mg/kg As and 7000 mg/kg Pb. The other was neutral (pH 7.4) with 9100 mg/kg Zn, 5200 mg/kg Pb and 350 mg/kg As. In samples from the acidic tailings, more than 15% of the Zn and 55% of the Cd were extractable with 0.1 M NaNO3, and distilled water. In the neutral tailings, using the same reagents, less than 1% of the metals were extractable. A sequential extraction procedure revealed that the sum of the residual and the Fe oxide fractions of Cu, Zn and Pb comprised 80–95% in the acidic tailings and 70–90% in the neutral tailings. The acidic mine tailings had a higher metal solubility, resulting in more metal leaching in the short-term, but also a higher fraction of inert metal. In contrast, in the neutral tailings, the metals were evenly distributed between, oxides and the residual fraction. This implies lower metal mobility in the short-term, but that metal mobility may increase in the long-term. When applied to mine tailings, sequential extractions may provide misleading results because the strong cation exchange capacity of some extractants may induce pH changes and thereby significantly change metal solubility. 相似文献
3.
Most road‐stream crossings over ephemeral channels are vulnerable to extreme hydrologic events. Ford stream crossings (FSCs) are usually dangerous for the road traffic during periods of high flow, in particular under flash flood conditions. The present paper analyzes the flood hazards on the Mediterranean coast in the Region of Murcia (south‐east Spain), affecting this type of road‐stream crossing over dry channels, according to hydraulic variables and bedload transport rates estimated for discharges at bankfull and flood‐prone stages. Under such conditions, the safety of people and vehicles was obtained using numerical models, developed by previous researchers; in particular, water levels and flow velocities across ford reaches were compared with different trend curves between water depths and corresponding critical velocities for children and adults, and for various prototype vehicles. Specifically, two approaches to assess this type of hazards were proposed: a specific Hydraulic Hazard Index and an algorithm for estimating the flood hazard from criteria of bed stability and bedload transport capacity (Flood Hazard at Fords, FHF). In addition, different exposure levels were established, using a Flood Vulnerability Index, based on the FHF, the road category, and the annual average daily traffic. The FHF model gave the best results with regard to the magnitude of the damage observed in recent flash floods for flow stages similar to those simulated. According to the danger thresholds established for this index, half‐bankfull flows represent here a high risk: 27.3% of FSCs for mini‐cars and 18.2% for large cars. At bankfull, the FHF exhibits very high values for mini‐cars (77.3% of FSCs) and for large passenger vehicles (50% of FSCs), while at the floodprone stage, extreme FHF values are reached for all kinds of vehicles at most of the ford crossings. 相似文献
4.
The present study proposes a method for evaluating the effectiveness of road‐crossing drainage culverts in ephemeral streams. This approach is focused on estimating the culvert capacity in road–stream crossings and the probable runoff generated on the road from hydrological thresholds associated with hydromorphological criteria. In particular, discharges at bankfull and flood‐prone stages have been used in combination with 2.5 and 100‐year peak discharges. Different hydraulic variables have been considered for calculating the discharge through culverts under these conditions (e.g. tailwater and headwater depth, inlet control, pipe roughness, pipe cross‐area and slope, pipe outlet velocity, critical water depth, and flow rate over the road). Geomorphological factors such as bed stability, bed load transport, and channel roughness have also been considered because of their potential for obstructing the drains in this type of channel. In addition, a potential obstruction index (PIOBSTR) has been calculated, as a dependent parameter of the obstacle index (IOBST) and the potential build‐up of coarse sediments (PBCS). The study has been carried out on the Mediterranean coast in the region of Murcia (Spain), where there are numerous examples of road–stream crossings equipped with culverts in ephemeral channels that could cause highly dangerous situations for road traffic. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
The Mar Menor lagoon is one of the most important ecological singularities in the Mediterranean area. At the same time, it is an area where many economic and industrial activities meet. The sum of the impacts of mining, agriculture and urban development in the surroundings to the lagoon during the last decades has affected its ecosystem. In this paper, we have reviewed the studies done by researchers over two decades regarding the impacts of human activities in the lagoon, reporting data of contamination levels and the effects generated in the ecosystem of the lagoon. The discharge of enriched nutrient waters seems to be the most important input in the lagoon. Changes to more friendly agricultural techniques in the surrounding areas are therefore necessary. After our review, we can conclude that it is necessary to have higher efforts from the public administrations and stricter environmental regulations in order to preserve, on one hand, the important ecological values of the lagoon, and on other hand, public health. 相似文献
6.
河北承德黑山铁矿床热液成矿特征及流体包裹体研究 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
黑山大型钒钛磁铁矿矿床产于大庙斜长岩杂岩体中,是承德地区最重要的"大庙式"岩浆型铁矿床。笔者在矿区野外地质观察过程中发现,穿插于斜长岩中的铁磷矿脉、磁铁矿硫化物矿脉有热液成矿作用的显示,表明黑山铁矿床成因除传统认为的岩浆期结晶、熔离、矿浆贯入成矿作用外,还有热液期的成矿作用发生。本文对热液成矿期铁磷矿石中磷灰石和矿化蚀变石英中的流体包裹体进行了显微测温和激光拉曼光谱分析。结果表明,磷灰石中原生包裹体可以分为气液两相包裹体、含子矿物包裹体、含液态CO2三相包裹体、单液相、单气相包裹体5类,均一温度主要集中于180～420℃,盐度主要集中于6.2%～38.9%NaCleq,流体包裹体气相成分主要为CO2、N2和CH4,液相成分主要为H2O,固相成分主要为方解石、石盐、白云石及铁氧化物子矿物。石英中流体包裹体类型和成分与磷灰石中的类似,但固相成分未发现石盐和不透明金属子矿物,均一温度变化于149～422℃,盐度变化于5.7%～22.9%NaCleq。成矿流体为CaCl2-NaCl-H2O-CO2体系,均一温度和盐度呈现正相关连续渐变的特征。铁磷矿石的磷灰石中原生包裹体为流体包裹体,盐度高,子矿物种类复杂,组成中富含CO2和CH4等,这些特征显示成矿流体以岩浆热液为主;成矿机理可能与大气降水对岩浆热液的稀释有关。 相似文献
7.
Correlations and sequence stratigraphic model for Messinian carbonate platforms of the western and central Mediterranean 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jean-Jacques?CornéeEmail author Jean-Paul?Saint Martin Gilles?Conesa Philippe?Münch Jean-Pierre?André Simona?Saint Martin Stefan?Roger 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2004,93(4):621-633
Distance correlations of Late Tortonian–Messinian littoral carbonate complexes are proposed from the study of eight platforms in the western and central Mediterranean. Correlations are based on the identification of two major biological sedimentary cycles and of two index surfaces. Surface A is a maximum flooding surface during cycle 1 at around 6.7 Ma. Surface B is a regional marine planation surface at around 5.95 Ma, at the base of cycle 2 (Terminal Carbonate Complex). A general sedimentary model is proposed for the 7–5.6-Ma time-span. The boundary between cycles 1 and 2 is coincident with the onset of the Messinian Salinity Crisis, and appears to be related to major environmental–paleo-oceanographic changes in the Mediterranean, rather than to a major sea-level drop or to climatic change. 相似文献
8.
The undrained stability of slopes in anisotropic fine-grained soils is studied in this paper using the finite element method (FEM). A constitutive model is presented, able to account for the observed variation of undrained strength with loading direction. The model is able to encompass the different strength distributions observed in normally, slightly overconsolidated and heavily overconsolidated soils. A series of stability analyses have been performed to explore the effect of the type of undrained strength anisotropy on the stability and failure mechanisms of slopes of different inclinations. In addition, a real case study of the failure of an underwater slope is analysed with the numerical approach presented. It suggests that, by considering undrained strength anisotropy, the failure can be satisfactorily explained. 相似文献
9.
Seagrass beds serve as nursery grounds for many fish species and often play an important role in the juvenile stages of economically and recreationally important fishes. The eelgrass Zostera capensis is the dominant submerged macrophyte in permanently open South African estuaries and occupies large intertidal and subtidal areas within the Knysna system. The primary objective of this study was to compare the occurrence of sparids and mugilids in eelgrass and nearby bare sediment areas using sampling with seine nets. The hypothesis that was tested is that mugilids are dominant in unvegetated areas of the Knysna Estuary littoral whereas sparids predominate within eelgrass beds located in the same zone. The results indicate that the family Mugilidae is better represented at unvegetated sites when compared to members of the family Sparidae, with the exception of Lithognathus lithognathus, but that the dominant three sparids and dominant two mugilids were most abundant in sparse eelgrass beds that included both bare and vegetated areas within this habitat type. The main fish species responsible for the separation of fish assemblages associated with unvegetated sites versus those associated with vegetated areas were Rhabdosargus holubi, Liza dumerili, Liza richardsonii, Lithognathus lithognathus, Sarpa salpa and Diplodus capensis, with R. holubi, S. salpa and D. capensis being mainly attracted to eelgrass habitats and L. dumerili, L. richardsonii and L. lithognathus having a stronger affinity for bare areas. This finding confirms a previous estuarine study in the nearby Swartvlei lake littoral, which found that sparids dominated areas where aquatic macrophytes were extensive and that mugilids became more prevalent at those same sites when the macrophytes underwent complete senescence. The length-frequency distributions of some sparid and mugilid species differed considerably between eelgrass and bare sediment areas, whereas those of other species showed little or no difference between these two habitat types. 相似文献