Seismic Hazard for Selected Sites in Greece: A Bayesian Estimate of Seismic Peak Ground Acceleration   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

A. A. Lyubushin  T. M. Tsapanos  V. F. Pisarenko  G. Ch. Koravos 《Natural Hazards》2002,25(1):83-98

A procedure for estimating maximum values of seismic peak ground accelerationat the examined site and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution in a future timeinterval of a given length is considered. The input information for the method areseismic catalog and regression relation between peak seismic acceleration at a givenpoint and magnitude and distance from the site to epicenter (seismic attenuation law).The method is based on Bayesian approach, which simply accounts for influenceof uncertainties of seismic acceleration values. The main assumptions for the method are Poissonian character of seismic events flow and distribution law of Gutenberg-Richter's type. The method is applied to seismic hazard estimation in six selected sitesin Greece.  相似文献   

Mantle structure and rifting processes in the Baikal–Mongolia region: geophysical data and evidence from xenoliths in volcanic rocks     

Dmitri Ionov   《Tectonophysics》2002,351(1-2)

The origin of the Baikal rift zone (BRZ) has been debated between the advocates of passive and active rifting since the 1970s. A re-assessment of the relevant geological and geophysical data from Russian and international literature questions the concept of broad asthenospheric upwelling beneath the rift zone that has been the cornerstone of many “active rifting” models. Results of a large number of early and recent studies favour the role of far-field forces in the opening and development of the BRZ. This study emphasises the data obtained through studies of peridotite and pyroxenite xenoliths brought to the surface by alkali basaltic magmas in southern Siberia and central Mongolia. These xenoliths are direct samples of the upper mantle in the vicinity of the BRZ. Of particular importance are suites of garnet-bearing xenoliths that have been used to construct P–T- composition lithospheric cross-sections in the region for the depth range of 35–80 km.Xenolith studies have shown fundamental differences in the composition and thermal regime between the lithospheric mantle beneath the ancient Siberian platform (sampled by kimberlites) and beneath younger mobile belts south of the platform. The uppermost mantle in southern Siberia and central Mongolia is much hotter at similar levels than the mantle in the Siberian craton and also has significantly higher contents of ‘basaltic’ major elements (Ca, Al, Na) and iron, higher Fe/Si and Fe/Mg. The combination of the moderately high geothermal gradient and the fertile compositions in the off-cratonic mantle appears to be a determining factor controlling differences in sub-Moho seismic velocities relative to the Siberian craton. Chemical and isotopic compositions of the off-cratonic xenoliths indicate small-scale and regional mantle heterogeneities attributed to various partial melting and enrichment events, consistent with long-term evolution in the lithospheric mantle. Age estimates of mantle events based on Os–Sr–Nd isotopic data can be correlated with major regional stages of crustal formation and may indicate long-term crust–mantle coupling. The ratios of ^143/144Nd in many LREE-depleted xenoliths are higher than those in MORB or OIB source regions and are not consistent with a recent origin from asthenospheric mantle.Mantle xenoliths nearest to the rift basins (30–50 km south of southern Lake Baikal) show no unequivocal evidence for strong heating, unusual stress and deformation, solid state flow, magmatic activity or partial melting that could be indicative of an asthenospheric intrusion right below the Moho. Comparisons between xenoliths from older and younger volcanic rocks east of Lake Baikal, together with observations on phase transformations and mineral zoning in individual xenoliths, have indicated recent heating in portions of the lithospheric mantle that may be related to localised magmatic activity or small-scale ascent of deep mantle material. Overall, the petrographic, P–T, chemical and isotopic constraints from mantle xenoliths appear to be consistent with recent geophysical studies, which found no evidence for a large-scale asthenospheric upwarp beneath the rift, and lend support to passive rifting mechanism for the BRZ.  相似文献   

Statistical Detection and Characterization of a Deviation from the Gutenberg-Richter Distribution above Magnitude 8     

V. F. Pisarenko  D. Sornette 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(4):839-864

— We present a quantitative statistical test for the presence of a crossover c₀ in the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake seismic moments, separating the usual power-law regime for seismic moments less than c₀ from another faster decaying regime beyond c₀. Our method is based on the transformation of the ordered sample of seismic moments into a series with uniform distribution under condition of no crossover. A simulation method allows us to estimate the statistical significance of the null hypothesis H₀ of an absence of crossover (c₀=infinity). When H₀ is rejected, we estimate the crossover c₀ using two different competing models for the second regime beyond c₀ and the simulation method. For the catalog obtained by aggregating 14 subduction zones of the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt, our estimate of the crossover point is log(c₀)=28.14 ± 0.40 (c₀ in dyne-cm), corresponding to a crossover magnitude m_W=8.1 ± 0.3. For separate subduction zones, the corresponding estimates are substantially more uncertain, so that the null hypothesis of an identical crossover for all subduction zones cannot be rejected. Such a large value of the crossover magnitude makes it difficult to associate it directly with a seismogenic thickness as proposed by many different authors. Our measure of c₀ may substantiate the concept that the localization of strong shear deformation could propagate significantly in the lower crust and upper mantle, thus increasing the effective size beyond which one should expect a change of regime.  相似文献   

Towards more systematic perceptual model development: a case study using 3 Luxembourgish catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Sebastian Wrede  Fabrizio Fenicia  Núria Martínez‐Carreras  Jérôme Juilleret  Christophe Hissler  Andreas Krein  Hubert H. G. Savenije  Stefan Uhlenbrook  Dmitri Kavetski  Laurent Pfister 《水文研究》2015,29(12):2731-2750

The synthesis of experimental understanding of catchment behaviour and its translation into qualitative perceptual models is an important objective of hydrological sciences. We explore this challenge by examining the cumulative understanding of the hydrology of three experimental catchments and how it evolves through the application of different investigation techniques. The case study considers the Huewelerbach, Weierbach and Wollefsbach headwater catchments of the Attert basin in Luxembourg. Subsurface investigations including bore holes and pits, analysis of soil samples and Electrical Resistivity Tomography measurements are presented and discussed. Streamflow and tracer data are used to gain further insights into the streamflow dynamics of the catchments, using end‐member mixing analysis and hydrograph separation based on dissolved silica and electrical conductivity. We show that the streamflow generating processes in all three catchments are controlled primarily by the subsolum and underlying bedrock. In the Huewelerbach, the permeable sandstone formation supports a stable groundwater component with little seasonality, which reaches the stream through a series of sources at the contact zone with the impermeable marls formation. In the Weierbach, the schist formation is relatively impermeable and supports a ‘fill and spill’‐type of flow mechanism; during wet conditions, it produces a delayed response dominated by pre‐event water. In the Wollefsbach, the impermeable marls formation is responsible for a saturation‐excess runoff generating process, producing a fast and highly seasonal response dominated by event water. The distinct streamflow generating processes of the three catchments are represented qualitatively using perceptual models. The perceptual models are in turn translated into quantitative conceptual models, which simulate the hydrological processes using networks of connected reservoirs and transfer functions. More generally, the paper illustrates the evolution of perceptual models based on experimental fieldwork data, the translation of perceptual models into conceptual models and the value of different types of data for processes understanding and model representation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On the role of soil moisture in daytime evolution of temperatures     

Natalie Lockart  Dmitri Kavetski  Stewart W. Franks 《水文研究》2013,27(26):3896-3904

This paper explores the relationship between temperature, evaporation and soil moisture using a planetary boundary layer (PBL) model. It focuses on illustrating and quantifying the effect of soil moisture on the evolution of daytime temperatures. A simple convective PBL model coupled with the Penman–Monteith (PM) equation is used to estimate evapotranspiration. Following calibration and sensitivity analysis, the model was used to simulate the relative impact of dry and wet soil moisture conditions on daytime temperatures by changing the surface resistance parameter in the PM equation. It was found that the maximum temperature that can be reached during a day is constrained by the amount of soil moisture and the available net radiation, confirming previously published results. Higher temperatures can be reached with greater net radiation and dry soil moisture conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Retrieval of Harmonics from a Covariance Function   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

V. F. Pisarenko 《Geophysical Journal International》1973,33(3):347-366

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Eagle Nebula Pillars: From Models to Observations     

Marc W. Pound  Jave O. Kane  Bruce A. Remington  Dmitri D. Ryutov  Akira Mizuta  Hideaki Takabe 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,298(1-2):177-181

Over the past few years, our group has been developing hydrodynamic models to simulate formation of the Eagle Nebula pillars. The true test of any model is, of course, how well it can reproduce the observations. Here, we discuss how we go about testing our models against observations. We describe the process by which we “observe” the model data to create synthetic maps. We show an example of this technique using one of our model runs and compare the resultant synthetic map to the real one.  相似文献   

Some Applications of the Maximum Likelihood Method in Seismology     

V. F. Pisarenko 《Geophysical Journal International》1970,21(3):307-322

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Optimization of mooring observations in Northern Bering Sea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Gleb Panteleev  Max Yaremchuk  Dmitri Nechaev 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2009,48(1-3):143

The problem of the optimal sampling strategy for moored current velocity observations in the Northern Bering Sea is addressed. We analyze dynamically induced correlations in the North Bering Sea currents and conduct their sensitivity analysis to optimize positions of a limited number of moorings. Optimization of the sampling strategy is performed with respect to robustness of the reconstruction of the North Bering Sea circulation with a particular emphasis on the accurate monitoring of the mean Bering Strait transport. Computations reveal four major regions in the North Bering Sea basin that are highly correlated with the Bering Strait transport. Apart from the regions within the Bering Strait itself, they include the Anadyr Strait and a region 100 km south of the Cape of Prince of Wales. Results of the sensitivity analysis are tested in the framework of twin data experiments with the quasi-stationary and oscillatory background circulations.  相似文献   

Maximum Earthquakes in Future Time Intervals     

Pisarenko  V. F.  Lyubushin  A. A.  Rodkin  M. V. 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2021,57(2):163-179

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—The paper addresses the problems associated with the maximum earthquakes in a seismically active region. Pisarenko and Rodkin (2009; 2010;...  相似文献