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The coccolith assemblages from seafloor sediments over the inner shelf in the northern region of the KwaZulu- Natal Bight on the east coast of South Africa were identified and their distribution determined. In all, 29 Recent species and taxonomic groups, as well as 29 reworked species were recorded. The distribution of the Recent species appears to be governed by environmental features that have been documented in other studies: temperature, salinity, nutrient concentration and water circulation pattern, which reveals the long-term existence of a circulation cell in the sector between Durban Bay and the Thukela River. The outer edge of the cell consists of nutrient-enriched mixed layers and is characterised by an enhanced abundance of Gephyrocapsa oceanica, whereas the central region consists of a stratified nutrient-depleted water mass with elevated abundance of Umbilicosphaera sibogae, Florisphaera profunda, and a group of umbelliform species. The elevated levels of G. oceanica, coupled with the rarity of U. sibogae, F. profunda and the umbelliform species, confirm the presence of a permanent upwelling cell off Richards Bay. The maximum abundance of F. profunda found between Richards Bay and Lake Nhlabane indicates a region of nutrient-depleted (except for nitrite) conditions. 相似文献
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Indian Ocean humpback dolphins Sousa plumbea inhabit nearshore waters from South Africa to eastern India. Humpback dolphins are vulnerable to conservation threats due to their naturally small population sizes and use of nearshore habitats, where human activities are highest. We investigated the abundance and residency of this species inhabiting Mossel Bay, South Africa, using photographic mark-recapture. Data were collected during 81 surveys in Mossel Bay between 2011 and 2013. Open population modelling using the POPAN parameterisation produced a ‘super-population’ estimate of 125 individuals (95% CI: 61–260) and within-year estimates of between 33 and 86 individuals (2011: 71 [95% CI: 30–168]; 2012: 33 [15–73], 32 [15–70]; 2013: 46 [20–108]). Although less appropriate, closed capture models were also run for comparison with previous studies in the region and generated similar, but slightly smaller, population estimates within each year. We compared our catalogue with opportunistic data collected from East London, Plettenberg Bay, De Hoop and Gansbaai. The only catalogue matches attained were between Plettenberg Bay (n = 44 identified) and Mossel Bay (n = 67 identified), separated by 140?km. Population exchange was moderate, with nine individuals resighted in multiple years between these two areas. This study supports previous findings of long-range movements for this species and provides a baseline from which to assess future impacts on the population. 相似文献
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Extending the Capture Map Concept to Estimate Discrete and Risk-Based Streamflow Depletion Potential
A popular and contemporary use of numerical groundwater models is to estimate the discrete relation between groundwater extraction and surface-water/groundwater exchange. Previously, the concept of a “capture map” has been put forward as a means to effectively summarize this relation for decision-making consumption. While capture maps have enjoyed success in the environmental simulation industry, they are deterministic, ignoring uncertainty in the underlying model. Furthermore, capture maps are not typically calculated in a manner that facilitates analysis of varying combinations of extraction locations and/or reaches. That is, they are typically constructed with focus on a single reach or group of reaches. The former of these limitations is important for conveying risk to decision makers and stakeholders, while the latter is important for decision-making support related to surface-water management, where future foci may include reaches that were not the focus of the original capture analysis. Herein, we use the concept of a response matrix to generalize the theory of the capture-map approach to estimate spatially discrete streamflow depletion potential. We also use first-order, second-moment uncertainty estimation techniques with the concept of “risk shifting” to place capture maps and streamflow depletion potential in a stochastic, risk-based framework. Our approach is demonstrated for an integrated groundwater/surface-water model of the lower San Antonio River, Texas, USA. 相似文献
4.
The term capture, related to the source of water derived from wells, has been used in two distinct yet related contexts by the hydrologic community. The first is a water‐budget context, in which capture refers to decreases in the rates of groundwater outflow and (or) increases in the rates of recharge along head‐dependent boundaries of an aquifer in response to pumping. The second is a transport context, in which capture zone refers to the specific flowpaths that define the three‐dimensional, volumetric portion of a groundwater flow field that discharges to a well. A closely related issue that has become associated with the source of water to wells is streamflow depletion, which refers to the reduction in streamflow caused by pumping, and is a type of capture. Rates of capture and streamflow depletion are calculated by use of water‐budget analyses, most often with groundwater‐flow models. Transport models, particularly particle‐tracking methods, are used to determine capture zones to wells. In general, however, transport methods are not useful for quantifying actual or potential streamflow depletion or other types of capture along aquifer boundaries. To clarify the sometimes subtle differences among these terms, we describe the processes and relations among capture, capture zones, and streamflow depletion, and provide proposed terminology to distinguish among them. 相似文献
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In this article, we discuss the use of MODFLOW-Style parameters in the numerical codes MODFLOW_2005 and MODFLOW_2005-Adjoint for the definition of variables in the Layer Property Flow package. Parameters are a useful tool to represent aquifer properties in both codes and are the only option available in the adjoint version. Moreover, for overdetermined parameter estimation problems, the parameter approach for model input can make data input easier. We found that if each estimable parameter is defined by one parameter, the codes require a large computational effort and substantial gains in efficiency are achieved by removing logical comparison of character strings that represent the names and types of the parameters. An alternative formulation already available in the current implementation of the code can also alleviate the efficiency degradation due to character comparisons in the special case of distributed parameters defined through multiplication matrices. The authors also hope that lessons learned in analyzing the performance of the MODFLOW family codes will be enlightening to developers of other Fortran implementations of numerical codes. 相似文献
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Ground water model calibration has made great advances in recent years with practical tools such as PEST being instrumental for making the latest techniques available to practitioners. As models and calibration tools get more sophisticated, however, the power of these tools can be misapplied, resulting in poor parameter estimates and/or nonoptimally calibrated models that do not suit their intended purpose. Here, we focus on an increasingly common technique for calibrating highly parameterized numerical models—pilot point parameterization with Tikhonov regularization. Pilot points are a popular method for spatially parameterizing complex hydrogeologic systems; however, additional flexibility offered by pilot points can become problematic if not constrained by Tikhonov regularization. The objective of this work is to explain and illustrate the specific roles played by control variables in the PEST software for Tikhonov regularization applied to pilot points. A recent study encountered difficulties implementing this approach, but through examination of that analysis, insight into underlying sources of potential misapplication can be gained and some guidelines for overcoming them developed. 相似文献
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In 1988, an important publication moved model calibration and forecasting beyond case studies and theoretical analysis. It reported on a somewhat idyllic graduate student modeling exercise where many of the system properties were known; the primary forecasts of interest were heads in pumping wells after a river was modified. The model was calibrated using manual trial-and-error approaches where a model's forecast quality was not related to how well it was calibrated. Here, we investigate whether tools widely available today obviate the shortcomings identified 30 years ago. A reconstructed version of the 1988 true model was tested using increasing parameter estimation sophistication. The parameter estimation demonstrated the inverse problem was non-unique because only head data were available for calibration. When a flux observation was included, current parameter estimation approaches were able to overcome all calibration and forecast issues noted in 1988. The best forecasts were obtained from a highly parameterized model that used pilot points for hydraulic conductivity and was constrained with soft knowledge. Like the 1988 results, however, the best calibrated model did not produce the best forecasts due to parameter overfitting. Finally, a computationally frugal linear uncertainty analysis demonstrated that the single-zone model was oversimplified, with only half of the forecasts falling within the calculated uncertainty bounds. Uncertainties from the highly parameterized models had all six forecasts within the calculated uncertainty. The current results outperformed those of the 1988 effort, demonstrating the value of quantitative parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis methods. 相似文献
9.
We present an efficient,robust computational method for modeling the Newtonian dynamics for rotation curve analysis of thin-disk galaxies.With appropriate mathematical treatments,the apparent numerical difficulties associated with singularities in computing elliptic integrals are completely removed.Using a boundary element discretization procedure,the governing equations are transformed into a linear algebra matrix equation that can be solved by straightforward Gauss elimination in one step without further ... 相似文献
10.
Luo J Wu W Fienen MN Jardine PM Mehlhorn TL Watson DB Cirpka OA Criddle CS Kitanidis PK 《Ground water》2006,44(2):266-274
We characterize the hydraulics of an extraction-injection well pair in arbitrarily oriented regional flow by the recirculation ratio, area, and average residence time in the recirculation zone. Erratic regional flow conditions may compromise the performance of the reactor between a single well pair. We propose an alternative four-well system: two downgradient extraction and two upgradient injection wells creating an inner cell nested within an outer cell. The outer cell protects the inner cell from the influence of regional flow. Compared to a two-well system, the proposed four-well system has several advantages: (1) the recirculation ratio within the nested inner cell is less sensitive to the regional flow direction; (2) a transitional recirculation zone between the inner and outer cells can capture flow leakage from the inner cell, minimizing the release of untreated contaminants; and (3) the size of the recirculation zone and residence times can be better controlled within the inner cell by changing the pumping rates. The system is applied at the Field Research Center in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, where experiments on microbial in situ reduction of uranium (VI) are under way. 相似文献