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Following the recent unexpected earthquake events of 2004 and 2011, it can be cautiously extrapolated that all major subduction zones bearing the capacity to produce mega-earthquake events will eventually do so given enough time, irrespective of the lack of such in the relatively short historical record. This notion has led to an effort of assigning maximum earthquake magnitudes to all major subduction zones, either based on geological constraints or based on size–frequency relations, or a combination of both. In this study, we utilize the proposed maximum magnitudes to assess tsunami hazard in Central California in the very long return periods. We also assessed tsunami hazard following an alternative methodology to calculate maximum magnitudes, which uses scaling relations for subduction zone earthquakes and maximum fault rupture scenarios found in literature. A sensitivity analysis is performed for Central California that is applicable to any coastal site in the Pacific Rim and can readily provide a strong indication for which subduction zones beam the most energy toward a study area. The maximum earthquake scenarios are then narrowed down to a few candidates, for which the initial conditions are examined in more detail. The chosen worst-case scenarios for Central California stem from the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone that beams more energy and generates the biggest amplitude waves toward the study area. The largest tsunami scenario produces maximum free surface elevations of 15 m and run-up heights greater than 20 m. 相似文献
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Andrew Moore James Goff Brian G. McAdoo Hermann M. Fritz Aditya Gusman Nikos Kalligeris Kenia Kalsum Arif Susanto Debora Suteja Costas E. Synolakis 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(11):1951-1961
The 2006 western Java tsunami deposited a discontinuous sheet of sand up to 20 cm thick, flooded coastal southern Java to
a depth of at least 8 m and inundated up to 1 km inland. In most places the primarily heavy mineral sand sheet is normally
graded, and in some it contains complex internal stratigraphy. Structures within the sand sheet probably record the passage
of up to two individual waves, a point noted in eyewitness accounts. We studied the 2006 tsunami deposits in detail along
a flow parallel transect about 750 m long, 15 km east of Cilacap. The tsunami deposit first becomes discernable from the underlying
sediment 70 m from the shoreline. From 75 to 300 m inland the deposit has been laid down in rice paddies, and maintains a
thickness of 10–20 cm. Landward of 300 m the deposit thins dramatically, reaching 1 mm by 450 m inland. From 450 m to the
edge of deposition (around 700 m inland) the deposit remains <1 mm thick. Deposition generally attended inundation—along the
transect, the tsunami deposited sand to within about 40 m of the inundation limit. The thicker part of the deposit contains
primarily sand indistinguishable from that found on the beach 3 weeks after the event, but after about 450 m (and roughly
coinciding with the decrease in thickness) the tsunami sediment shifts to become more like the underlying paddy soil than
the beach sand. Grain sizes within the deposit tend to fine upward and landward, although overall upward fining takes place
in two discrete pulses, with an initial section of inverse grading followed by a section of normal grading. The two inversely
graded sections are also density graded, with denser grains at the base, and less dense grains at the top. The two normally
graded sections show no trends in density. The inversely graded sections show high density sediment to the base and become
less dense upward and represents traction carpet flows at the base of the tsunami. These are suggestive of high shear rates
in the flow. Because of the grain sorting in the traction carpet, the landward-fining trends usually seen in tsunami deposits
are masked, although lateral changes of mean sediment grain size along the transect do show overall landward fining, with
more variation as the deposit tapers off. The deposit is also thicker in the more seaward portions than would be produced
by tsunamis lacking traction carpets. 相似文献
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Emile A. Okal Costas E. Synolakis Nikos Kalligeris 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(6-7):1153-1173
We present 14 scenarios of potential tsunamis in the South China Sea and its adjoining basins, the Sulu and Sulawezi Seas. The sources consist of earthquake dislocations inspired by the the study of historical events, either recorded (since 1900) or described in historical documents going back to 1604. We consider worst-case scenarios, where the size of the earthquake is not limited by the largest known event, but merely by the dimension of the basin over which a coherent fault may propagate. While such scenarios are arguably improbable, they may not be impossible, and as such must be examined. For each scenario, we present a simulation of the tsunami??s propagation in the marine basin, exclusive of its interaction with the coastline. Our results show that the South China, Sulu and Sulawezi Seas make up three largely independent basins where tsunamis generated in one basin do not leak into another. Similarly, the Sunda arc provides an efficient barrier to tsunamis originating in the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the shallow continental shelves in the Java Sea, the Gulf of Thailand and the western part of the South China Sea significantly dampen the amplitude of the waves. The eastern shores of the Malay Peninsula are threatened only by the greatest??and most improbable??of our sources, a mega-earthquake rupturing all of the Luzon Trench. We also consider two models of underwater landslides (which can be triggered by smaller events, even in an intraplate setting). These sources, for which there is both historical and geological evidence, could pose a significant threat to all shorelines in the region, including the Malay Peninsula. 相似文献
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Lentas Konstantinos Gkarlaouni Charikleia G. Kalligeris Nikos Melis Nikolaos S. 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2022,20(2):819-851
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - We study the major MW = 7.0, 30 October 2020, Samos earthquake and its aftershocks, by calculating improved locations using differential travel times and... 相似文献
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Field Survey of the 27 February 2010 Chile Tsunami 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Hermann M. Fritz Catherine M. Petroff Patricio A. Catal��n Rodrigo Cienfuegos Patricio Winckler Nikos Kalligeris Robert Weiss Sergio E. Barrientos Gianina Meneses Carolina Valderas-Bermejo Carl Ebeling Athanassios Papadopoulos Manuel Contreras Rafael Almar Juan Carlos Dominguez Costas E. Synolakis 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(11):1989-2010
On 27 February 2010, a magnitude M w?=?8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile??s Maule region causing substantial damage and loss of life. Ancestral tsunami knowledge from the 1960 event combined with education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate after the earthquake. Many of the tsunami victims were tourists in coastal campgrounds. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event and surveyed 800?km of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín and the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Mocha, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter). The collected survey data include more than 400 tsunami flow depth, runup and coastal uplift measurements. The tsunami peaked with a localized runup of 29?m on a coastal bluff at Constitución. The observed runup distributions exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. Observations from the 2010 and 1960 Chile tsunamis are compared. 相似文献
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