Simulation of individual particle movement in a gravel streambed     

J. Mikael Malmaeus  Marwan A. Hassan 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2002,27(1):81-97

A two‐dimensional simulation model of travel distances of individual particles in a gravel‐bed river is presented. The model is based on a number of rules, which include particle size, entrainment, trajectory, distance of movement and entrapment. Particle interactions are controlled by resistance fields defined about each obstacle and critical elevation defined in the model. Resistance fields, particle dropping and critical elevation rules control particle interactions. The interaction rules cause the particles to develop pebble clusters, stone cells and transverse structures (transverse ribs). The simulated travel distances of individual particles are consistent with reported field results. Individual particle travel distances were simulated using two different models; one without interactions between the individual particles and the stationary bed and one with interactions. The case without interactions demonstrates the random nature of sediment transport, and narrow ranges of travel distances. Wider ranges of travel distances, similar to those for natural situations, were obtained for the cases with interactions. The more intense the interaction between the mobile stones and the stationary ones, the wider the range of distances of travel for a given particle size. Modelling the mean travel distance yielded a result similar to that published previously, which was based on empirical data. Well developed bed‐surface structures were obtained for relatively poorly sorted sediment with intense interactions between particles. Transverse structures developed when relatively large particles were allowed to move. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Fracture Mechanics Modelling of an In Situ Concrete Spalling Experiment     

Topias Siren  Lauri Uotinen  Mikael Rinne  Baotang Shen 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2015,48(4):1423-1438

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A comprehensive model inter-comparison study investigating the water budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP period   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

D. Jacob  B. J. J. M. Van den Hurk  U. Andræ  G. Elgered  C. Fortelius  L. P. Graham  S. D. Jackson  U. Karstens  Chr. Köpken  R. Lindau  R. Podzun  B. Rockel  F. Rubel  B. H. Sass  R. N. B. Smith  X. Yang 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2001,77(1-4):19-43

Summary A comparison of 8 regional atmospheric model systems was carried out for a three-month late summer/early autumn period in 1995 over the Baltic Sea and its catchment area. All models were configured on a common grid using similar surface and lateral boundary conditions, and ran in either data assimilation mode (short term forecasts plus data assimilation), forecast mode (short term forecasts initialised daily with analyses) or climate mode (no re-initialisation of model interior during entire simulation period). Model results presented in this paper were generally post processed as daily averaged quantities, separate for land and sea areas when relevant. Post processed output was compared against available analyses or observations of cloud cover, precipitation, vertically integrated atmospheric specific humidity, runoff, surface radiation and near surface synoptic observations. The definition of a common grid and lateral forcing resulted in a high degree of agreement among the participating model results for most cases. Models operated in climate mode generally displayed slightly larger deviations from the observations than the data assimilation or forecast mode integration, but in all cases synoptic events were well captured. Correspondence to near surface synoptic quantities was good. Significant disagreement between model results was shown in particular for cloud cover and the radiative properties, average precipitation and runoff. Problems with choosing appropriate initial soil moisture conditions from a common initial soil moisture field resulted in a wide range of evaporation and sensible heat flux values during the first few weeks of the simulations, but better agreement was shown at later times. Received September 8, 2000 Revised April 3, 2001  相似文献   

Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mikael H??k  Junchen Li  Kersti Johansson  Simon Snowden 《Natural Resources Research》2012,21(1):23-41

The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems’ growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid ‘oil boom’-development—i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events—their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.  相似文献   

Asteroid orbital ranging using Markov‐Chain Monte Carlo     

Dagmara Oszkiewicz  Karri Muinonen  Jenni Virtanen  Mikael Granvik 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(12):1897-1904

Abstract— We present a novel Markov‐Chain Monte‐Carlo orbital ranging method (MCMC) for poorly observed single‐apparition asteroids with two or more observations. We examine the Bayesian a posteriori probability density of the orbital elements using methods that map a volume of orbits in the orbital‐element phase space. In particular, we use the MCMC method to sample the phase space in an unbiased way. We study the speed of convergence and also the efficiency of the new method for the initial orbit computation problem. We present the results of the MCMC ranging method applied to three objects from different dynamical groups. We conclude that the method is applicable to initial orbit computation for near‐Earth, main‐belt, and transneptunian objects.  相似文献   

Applying spatial regression to evaluate risk factors for microbiological contamination of urban groundwater sources in Juba,South Sudan     

Emma Engström  Ulla Mörtberg  Anders Karlström  Mikael Mangold 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(4):1077-1091

This study developed methodology for statistically assessing groundwater contamination mechanisms. It focused on microbial water pollution in low-income regions. Risk factors for faecal contamination of groundwater-fed drinking-water sources were evaluated in a case study in Juba, South Sudan. The study was based on counts of thermotolerant coliforms in water samples from 129 sources, collected by the humanitarian aid organisation Médecins Sans Frontières in 2010. The factors included hydrogeological settings, land use and socio-economic characteristics. The results showed that the residuals of a conventional probit regression model had a significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I?=?3.05, I-stat?=?9.28); therefore, a spatial model was developed that had better goodness-of-fit to the observations. The most significant factor in this model (p-value 0.005) was the distance from a water source to the nearest Tukul area, an area with informal settlements that lack sanitation services. It is thus recommended that future remediation and monitoring efforts in the city be concentrated in such low-income regions. The spatial model differed from the conventional approach: in contrast with the latter case, lowland topography was not significant at the 5% level, as the p-value was 0.074 in the spatial model and 0.040 in the traditional model. This study showed that statistical risk-factor assessments of groundwater contamination need to consider spatial interactions when the water sources are located close to each other. Future studies might further investigate the cut-off distance that reflects spatial autocorrelation. Particularly, these results advise research on urban groundwater quality.  相似文献   

Thin elastic shells with variable thickness for lithospheric flexure of one-plate planets     

Mikael Beuthe 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,172(2):817-841

Planetary topography can either be modelled as a load supported by the lithosphere, or as a dynamic effect due to lithospheric flexure caused by mantle convection. In both cases the response of the lithosphere to external forces can be calculated with the theory of thin elastic plates or shells. On one-plate planets the spherical geometry of the lithospheric shell plays an important role in the flexure mechanism. So far the equations governing the deformations and stresses of a spherical shell have only been derived under the assumption of a shell of constant thickness. However, local studies of gravity and topography data suggest large variations in the thickness of the lithosphere. In this paper, we obtain the scalar flexure equations governing the deformations of a thin spherical shell with variable thickness or variable Young's modulus. The resulting equations can be solved in succession, except for a system of two simultaneous equations, the solutions of which are the transverse deflection and an associated stress function. In order to include bottom loading generated by mantle convection, we extend the method of stress functions to include loads with a toroidal tangential component. We further show that toroidal tangential displacement always occurs if the shell thickness varies, even in the absence of toroidal loads. We finally prove that the degree-one harmonic components of the transverse deflection and of the toroidal tangential displacement are independent of the elastic properties of the shell and are associated with translational and rotational freedom. While being constrained by the static assumption, degree-one loads can deform the shell and generate stresses. The flexure equations for a shell of variable thickness are useful not only for the prediction of the gravity signal in local admittance studies, but also for the construction of stress maps in tectonic analysis.  相似文献   

Validity of the Fossil Fuel Production Outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios     

Mikael Höök  Anders Sivertsson  Kjell Aleklett 《Natural Resources Research》2010,19(2):63-81

Anthropogenic global warming caused by CO₂ emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Previous scenarios were withdrawn after exaggerating one or several trends. This study investigates underlying assumptions on resource availability and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations can be found in the present set of emission scenarios as well. It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic stance and that future production expectations are leaning toward spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary, we can only encourage the IPCC to involve more resource experts and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current set, SRES, is biased toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels.  相似文献   

Using ocean quahog (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Arctica islandica</Emphasis>) shells to reconstruct palaeoenvironment in Öresund,Kattegat and Skagerrak,Sweden     

Elena Dunca  Harry Mutvei  Peter Göransson  Carl-Magnus Mörth  Bernd R. Schöne  Martin J. Whitehouse  Mikael Elfman  Susanne P. Baden 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2009,98(1):3-17

Shells of Arctica islandica collected between 1884 and 2004 from Öresund, Kattegat and Skagerrak (Swedish West Coast) were used to monitor local climate variations and the influence of human activities on the local environment. For this purpose, we analysed the growth, structure and chemical composition of these shells and compared them with shells collected from Kiel Bay, Norway and Iceland. The growth rate of the studied shells registers an NAO periodicity of ca 8 years. However, the observed signal is weak because of other environmental interferences that are either of natural or anthropogenic origin. For example, the oxygen isotope ratios show temperature fluctuation, but also the influx of low salinity water. Higher contents of S, N, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and P in shell portions formed during the last century are related to human activities such as mining and industrial development. Our study indicates that in order to use Arctica shells as archives of climate change it is necessary to study the full range of environmental data that is recorded in the shells by using a multi element and isotope approach in combination with different analytical techniques including investigation of growth rates and shell structure.  相似文献   

Soil charcoal stability over the Holocene — Comment to the paper published by de Lafontaine and Asselin,Quaternary Research,v. 76, 2011, pp. 196–200     

Mikael Ohlson 《Quaternary Research》2012,78(1):154

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