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ABSTRACTThis research aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation of climate change effects on temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration over the country of Iran for the time periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099, and under scenarios A2 and B2. After preparation of measured temperature and precipitation data and calculation of potential evapotranspiration for the base time period of 1960–1990 for 46 meteorological stations (with a nationwide distribution), initial zoning of these three parameters over the country was attempted. Maximum and minimum temperatures and values of precipitation were obtained from the HadCM3 model under scenarios A2 and B2 for the three time periods, and these data were downscaled. Corresponding maps were prepared for the three parameters in the three time periods, and spatial and temporal variations of these climatic parameters under scenarios A2 and B2 were extracted and interpreted. Results showed that the highest increase in temperature would occur in western parts of the country, but the highest increase of potential evapotranspiration would occur in the central region of Iran. However, precipitation would vary temporally and spatially in different parts of the country depending on the scenario used and the time period selected.
Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor not assigned 相似文献
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The survey of climatic drought trend in Iran 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2
Hossein Bari Abarghouei Mohammad Amin Asadi Zarch Mohammad Taghi Dastorani Mohammad Reza Kousari Mehdi Safari Zarch 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(6):851-863
Drought is one of the most important natural hazards in Iran. Therefore, drought monitoring has become a point of concern
for most of the researchers. In the present study, the changes and trend of drought was surveyed, under the current global
climate changes, by non parametric Mann–Kendall statistical test for 42 synoptic stations at different places of Iran. Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated to recognize the drought condition at different time scales (3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and
24 months’ time series) for analyzing the drought trend in the recent 30 years. The obtained results have indicated a significant
negative trend of drought in many parts of Iran, especially the South-East, West and South-West regions of the country. According
to the results, although some parts of Iran such as North (around the Caspian Sea) and Northeast show no significant trend
but in other parts of country, the severity of drought has increased during the last 30 years. 相似文献
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This research focused on the determination of land cover thresholds that have a significant impact on runoff generation and soil loss at the pedon scale. For this purpose, six erosion micro-plots were set up on grassland and shrubland types of rangeland in the northeast of Iran, and the amounts of vegetation cover, litter, runoff and soil loss on them were measured. A factorial statistical analysis was carried out on the completely randomized design using land cover and rainfall factors. The results show that the effect of rainfall on soil loss and runoff was greater than that of land cover. Also, the effect of land cover on soil loss was greater than that on runoff generation. Furthermore, two specific thresholds were identified: the first was from 10 to 30% of landcover and the second from 50 to 70%. 相似文献
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