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Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Doug M. Smith Adam A. Scaife George J. Boer Mihaela Caian Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Virginie Guemas Ed Hawkins Wilco Hazeleger Leon Hermanson Chun Kit Ho Masayoshi Ishii Viatcheslav Kharin Masahide Kimoto Ben Kirtman Judith Lean Daniela Matei William J. Merryfield Wolfgang A. Müller Holger Pohlmann Anthony Rosati Bert Wouters Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888
We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change. 相似文献
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Mantle convection with a brittle lithosphere: thoughts on the global tectonic styles of the Earth and Venus 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Plates are an integral part of the convection system in the fluid mantle, but plate boundaries are the product of brittle faulting and plate motions are strongly influenced by the existence of such faults. The conditions for plate tectonics are studied by considering brittle behaviour, using Byerlee's law to limit the maximum stress in the lithosphere, in a mantle convection model with temperature-dependent viscosity.
When the yield stress is high, convection is confined below a thick, stagnant lithosphere. At low yield stress, brittle deformation mobilizes the lithosphere which becomes a part of the overall circulation; surface deformation occurs in localized regions close to upwellings and downwellings in the system. At intermediate levels of the yield stress, there is a cycling between these two states: thick lithosphere episodically mobilizes and collapses into the interior before reforming.
The mobile-lid regime resembles convection of a fluid with temperature-dependent viscosity and the boundary-layer scalings are found to be analogous. This regime has a well defined Nusselt number–Rayleigh number relationship which is in good agreement with scaling theory. The surface velocity is nearly independent of the yield stress, indicating that the 'plate' motion is resisted by viscous stresses in the mantle.
Analysis suggests that mobilization of the Earth's lithosphere can occur if the friction coefficient in the lithosphere is less than 0.03–0.13—lower than laboratory values but consistent with seismic field studies. On Venus, the friction coefficient may be high as a result of the dry conditions, and brittle mobilization of the lithosphere would then be episodic and catastrophic. 相似文献
When the yield stress is high, convection is confined below a thick, stagnant lithosphere. At low yield stress, brittle deformation mobilizes the lithosphere which becomes a part of the overall circulation; surface deformation occurs in localized regions close to upwellings and downwellings in the system. At intermediate levels of the yield stress, there is a cycling between these two states: thick lithosphere episodically mobilizes and collapses into the interior before reforming.
The mobile-lid regime resembles convection of a fluid with temperature-dependent viscosity and the boundary-layer scalings are found to be analogous. This regime has a well defined Nusselt number–Rayleigh number relationship which is in good agreement with scaling theory. The surface velocity is nearly independent of the yield stress, indicating that the 'plate' motion is resisted by viscous stresses in the mantle.
Analysis suggests that mobilization of the Earth's lithosphere can occur if the friction coefficient in the lithosphere is less than 0.03–0.13—lower than laboratory values but consistent with seismic field studies. On Venus, the friction coefficient may be high as a result of the dry conditions, and brittle mobilization of the lithosphere would then be episodic and catastrophic. 相似文献
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A novel and efficient protocol optimising deep‐bed filtration of surface water was developed. The innovation lies in ballasted‐flocculation filtration and an intermediate downwash. The approach is based on the assumption that kaolin particles with a partial positive charge may adsorb onto the surface of C. parvum oocysts and neutralize their negative charge. Application of this technology enhanced removal of inorganic particles and Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts by approximately 30 % and shortened the ripening stage of the filtration process from 1 h to about 10 min. 相似文献
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Abstract A copepod nauplius of the family Dirivultidae Humes & Dojiri 1980 is described for the first time. The lecithotrophic nauplius of the widespread symbiotic copepod Stygiopontius pectinatus Humes 1987 was released from females bearing paired egg sacs that included only one yolky embryo each. The ovigerous females of S. pectinatus were washed from the branchial chamber of alvinocaridid shrimps ( Rimicaris exoculata Williams & Rona 1986 ) collected at a deep-sea hydrothermal field on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 5° S (Red Lion site, chimney 'Shrimps Farm', depth 3,048 m) by ROV Quest 4000 and maintained in a laboratory on the R/V METEOR (cruise M64/1, 2005). The nauplius of S. pectinatus , appears to be a stage I nauplius because it bears only one pair of caudal setae and the setose bud of maxilla 1 is absent. Like nauplii of other copepods of the order Siphonostomatoida, this nauplius of S. pectinatus possesses a reduced labrum and the body is filled with yolky granules; it also lacks a masticatory process on the antennal coxa. The presence of two inner setae (instead of one seta) on the mandibular endopod is hypothesized to be a primitive character of dirivultids that distinguishes them from the remaining siphonostomatoid genera. The Dirivultidae is a widespread and diverse family of copepods endemic to the deep-sea hydrothermal vents of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Morphological features of the planktonic nauplius of S. pectinatus suggest nutritional independence during their dispersal. 相似文献
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Viatcheslav S. Solomatov Peter Olson David J. Stevenson 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1993,120(3-4):387-393
Differentiation in magma chambers, in the Earth's core and in the partially molten early Earth is a competitive process between sedimentation and re-entrainment of crystals in the presence of convection. Previous studies show that the particles suspended in convective layers eventually settle and do so almost as fast as in the absence of convection. However, the nature and magnitude of the competing entrainment has remained unclear. Here we provide a simple theory and experimental evidence showing that entrainment occurs at the crests of dunes created in the particle bed at the base of a convecting fluid. In both laminar and turbulent regimes, the dune formation and entrainment are driven by viscous stresses produced by thermal plumes. At sufficiently high Rayleigh numbers the particles are probably entrained by Reynolds stresses. Entrainment in the Earth's core is hardly possible because it requires unreasonably small crystals. Entrainment of 10−2–10−1 cm diameter crystals is very likely in magma oceans. For magma chambers entrainment requires large viscosities (> 106 P) and even when it occurs, the total amount of the suspended solid fraction is very small. 相似文献
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Prony filtering is a method of seismic data processing which can be used to solve various geological and production tasks, involving an analysis of target horizons characteristics and a prediction of possible productive zones. This method is based on decomposing the observed seismic signals by exponentially damped cosines at short-time intervals. As a result, a discrete Prony spectrum including values of four parameters (amplitude, damping factor, frequency, phase) can be created. This decomposition occurs at many short-time intervals moving along an observed trace. The combined Prony spectrum of the trace can be used to create images of the trace through a selection of some values of the parameters. These images created for all traces of a seismic section provide an opportunity for locating zones of frequency-dependent anomalous scattering and absorption of seismic energy. Subsequently, the zones can be correlated with target seismic horizons. Analysis and interpretation of these zones may promote understanding of the target horizons features and help to connect these features with the presence of possible reservoirs. 相似文献
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The liquefaction of clayey soils under cyclic loading 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
This paper seeks to investigate the liquefaction of clayey soils, a phenomenon that has been the trigger for many natural disasters in the last few decades, including landslides. Research was conducted on artificial clay-sand mixtures and natural clayey soils collected from the sliding surfaces of earthquake-induced landslides. The undrained response of normally consolidated clayey soils to cyclic loading was studied by means of a ring-shear apparatus. For the artificial clay-sand mixtures, it was found that the presence of a small amount of bentonite (≤ 7%) would cause rapid liquefaction, while a further increase in bentonite content (≥ 11%) produced the opposite effect of raising soil resistance to liquefaction by a significant degree. It was demonstrated that the bentonite-sand mixture was considerably more resistant to liquefaction than the kaolin-, and illite-mixtures, given the same clay content. The test results of plastic soils revealed the significant influence of plasticity on the liquefaction resistance of soil. The microfabric of clayey soil was investigated by means of a scanning electron microscope. The analysis showed that the liquefaction potential of soil was strongly related to certain particle arrangements. For example, soil vulnerable to liquefaction had an open microfabric in which clay aggregations generally gathered at the sand particle contact points, forming low-strength “clay bridges” that were destroyed easily during cyclic loading. On the other hand, the microfabric of soil that was resistant to liquefaction appeared to be more compact, with the clay producing a matrix that prevented sand grains from liquefying. In the case of the natural soils, the obtained results indicated that their cyclic behavior was similarly influenced by factors such as clay content, clay mineralogy and plasticity. The relation between the liquefaction potential of natural soil and its microfabric was thus also established. On the basis of the obtained results, the authors posited an explanation on the mechanism of liquefaction for clayey soil. 相似文献
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The presence of triplications (caustics) can be a serious problem in seismic data processing and analysis. The travel-time curve becomes multi-valued and the geometrical spreading correction factor tends to zero due to energy focusing. To select the regions of possible triplications (caustics) of travel-times, which can arise during the propagation of reflected seismic waves, we use the Keller–Maslov–Arnol’d-Hörmander (KMAH) index. The identification of such regions improves the selection of signals associated with target reflecting horizons and their use in solving various inverse dynamic problems, including amplitude-versus-offset (AVO) and full-waveform inversions. The importance of the KMAH index increases in 4D surveys when the structure of the model is already known, and it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of the shapes of seismic signals with increasing accuracy when solving inverse seismic problems. In addition, this index can be valuable when solving various marine seismic problems associated with single and converted waves, in particular with PSP-waves. The present work is dedicated to the separation of signals associated with this type of wave using surface marine seismic data. However, the proposed algorithm has a wider application. It is based on: (i) a priori information on the medium under study; (ii) ray tracing method. The ray tracing method enables the identification of the corresponding signals and the determination of the time and space intervals, in which such signals are most accurately traced. These intervals are used in the selection of target signals, particularly signals related to PSP-waves. In order to select optimal areas of observation with higher amplitudes of target signals, we use the \(\tau -p\) transform. To improve the stability of the signal separation, KMAH index is used. This approach allows the elimination of possible triplications (caustics) in the travel-time curve from the selected intervals. 相似文献
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