We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献
Historical data of total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT), together with nitrate and phosphate, have been used to model the evolution of these constituents over the year in the Atlantic water of the Norwegian Sea. Changes in nutrient concentration in the upper layer of the ocean are largely related to biological activity, but vertical mixing with the underlying water will also have an impact. A mixing factor is estimated and used to compute the entrainment of these constituents into the surface water from below. After taking the mixing contribution into account, the resulting nutrient concentration changes are attributed to biological production or decay. The results of the model show that the change in CT by vertical mixing and by biological activity based on nutrient equivalents needs another sink to balance the carbon budget. It cannot be the atmosphere as the surface water is undersaturated with respect to carbon dioxide and is, thus, a source of CT in this region. Inasmuch as the peak deficit of carbon is more than a month later than for the nutrients, the most plausible explanation is that other nitrogen and phosphate sources than the inorganic salts are used together with dissolved inorganic carbon during this period. As nitrate and phosphate show a similar trend, it is unlikely that the explanation is the use of ammonia or nitrogen fixation but rather dissolved organic nitrogen and phosphate, while dissolved organic carbon is accumulating in the water. 相似文献
Sixteen mucilages sampled in the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian seas during 1999–2001 were characterised using spectroscopic [Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR); colorimetric], chromatographic [thin-layer chromatography (TLC)], and elemental analysis techniques. Most samples contained comparable fractions of organic and inorganic compounds, with the exception of a few samples where the inorganic fraction was greater than the organic fraction. Carbohydrates were important in the samples rich in organic matter, while carbonate and silica (quartz and biogenic silica) were the most important constituents of the inorganic fraction. Carbonate and silica were the only important constituents of the samples with a very low organic content.According to chemical analyses, mucilage aggregates show the typical structure of humin—the insoluble fraction of the humic substance. Classification of mucilage samples as humin-like compounds, together with a reexamination of the factors involved in the formation of organic aggregates in marine environment, has led to the formulation of a reasonable hypothesis for mucilage formation. 相似文献
A crucial point in any methodology for avalanche hazard assessment is the evaluation of avalanche distance exceeded probability, i.e., the annual probability that any assigned location along a given path is reached or exceeded by an avalanche. Typically this problem is faced by estimating the snow volume in the starting zone that is likely to accumulate an average every T years by statistical analysis of snowfall record, and then using this volume as input to an appropriately calibrated avalanche dynamics model to determine the runout distancesfor this design event. This methodology identifies the areas that canbe affected by an avalanche for the considered value of the return period (i.e. the average interval of time for a certain event to repeat itself), ¯T. However, it does not allow us to evaluate the actual avalanche encounter probability for any given point in the runout zone. In the present work this probability is computed by numerical integration of the expression P(x) = ∫0∞ P*(V)f(V) dV, where f is the probabilitydensity function (PDF) of the avalanche release volume V, and P* is the probability of the point x being reached or passed by an avalanche if the release volume is V; this latter probability is calculated by avalanche dynamics simulations. The procedure is implemented using a one-dimensional hydraulic-continuum avalanche dynamic model, calibrated on data from different Italian Alpine ranges, and is applied to a real world hazard mapping problem. 相似文献
Regional three-dimensional inversions of teleseismic P-wave travel time residuals recorded by high-frequency regional and local seismic networks operating along the Western Alps and surrounding regions were carried out and lithosphere and upper mantle P-wave velocity models down to 300 km were obtained.
Residuals of more than 500 teleseismic events, recorded by 98 fixed and temporary seismic stations, have been inverted.
The comparison between real residuals and the ones obtained from tomographic model indicates that the method is able to solve the feature of the regional heterogeneities.
Where the resolution is good, coherent lithospheric and upper mantle structures are imaged. In the shallower layers, high- and low-velocity anomalies follow the structural behaviour of the Alpine-Apenninic chains showing the existence of very strong velocity contrasts. In the deepest layers, velocity contrast decreases however two deep-seated high-velocity structures are observed. The most extended in depth and approximately trending NE-SW has been interpreted as a wreck of the oldest subduction responsible of the Alpine orogenesis. The second one, connected to the northwestern sector of the Apenninic chain, appears to vanish at depths greater than 180 km and is probably due to still active Apenninic roots.
Cross-sections depict the spatial trend of perturbations and in particular outline the sub-vertical character of the Alpine and Apenninic anomalies. Under the Ligurian Sea, the 3-D inversion confirms the uplift of the asthenosphere in agreement with the tectonic evolution of the basin. 相似文献
Tropical forest mapping is one of the major environmental concerns at global and regional scales in which remote sensing techniques are firmly involved. This study examines the use of the variogram function to analyse forest cover fragmentation at different image scales. Two main aspects are considered here: (1) analysis of the spatial variability structure of the forest cover observed at three different scales using fine, medium and coarse spatial resolution images; and (2) the study of the relationship between rescaled images from the finest spatial resolution and those of the medium and coarse spatial resolutions. Both aspects are analysed using the variogram function as a basic tool to calculate and interpret the spatial variability of the forest cover. An example is presented for a Brazilian tropical forest zone using satellite images of different spatial resolutions acquired by Landsat TM (30 m), Resurs MSU (160 m) and ERS ATSR (1000 m). The results of this study contribute to establishing a suitable spatial resolution of remotely sensed data for tropical forest cover monitoring. 相似文献
The synthetic amphibole Na0.95(Li0.95Mg1.05)Mg5Si8O22(OH)2 was studied in situ at high-T, using IR OH-stretching spectroscopy and synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction. At room-T the sample has P21/m symmetry, as shown by the FTIR spectrum. It shows in the OH region two well-defined and intense absorptions at 3,748 and
3,712 cm−1, respectively, and two minor bands at 3,667 and 3,687 cm−1. The main bands are assigned to the two independent O–H groups in the primitive structure. The two minor bands evidencing
the presence of small amount of vacant A-site (A□0.05). With increasing T, these bands shift continuously and merge into a unique absorption at high temperature. A change as a function of increasing
T is revealed by the evolution of the refined unit-cell parameters, whose trend shows a transition to C2/m at about 320–330°C. The spontaneous scalar strain, fitted with a tricritical 2–6 Landau potential, gives a Tc of 325(10)°C (β parameter = 0.27). Comparison with the second-order P21/m ⇔ C2/m phase transition at 255°C for synthetic amphibole ANa0.8B(Na0.8Mg1.2)CMg5Si8O22(OH)2 indicates that the substitution of Na with Li at the B-sites strongly affects the thermodynamic character and the Tc of the phase transition. The comparison of LNMSH amphiboles with cummingtonitic ones shows that the high-T thermodynamic behaviour is affected by A-site occupancy. 相似文献
