A coupled ice-ocean model of the Arctic is developed in order to study the effects of precipitation and river runoff on sea
ice. A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model is coupled to an ocean general circulation model which includes a turbulent closure
scheme for vertical mixing. The model is forced by interannually varying atmospheric temperature and pressure data from 1980–1989,
and spatially varying mean monthly precipitation and river runoffs. Salinity and fresh water fluxes to the ocean from ice
growth, snow melt, rain, and runoffs are computed, with no artificial constraints on the ocean salinity. The modeled ice thickness
is similar to the observed pattern, with the thickest ice remaining against the Canadian Archipelago throughout the year.
The modeled ice drift reproduces the Beaufort gyre and Transpolar drift exiting through Fram Strait. The stable arctic halocline
produced by the vertical mixing scheme isolates the surface from the Atlantic layer and reduces the vertical fluxes of heat
and salinity. A sensitivity experiment with zero precipitation results in rapidly decreasing ice thickness, in response to
greater ocean heat flux from a weakening of the halocline, while an experiment with doubled precipitation results in a smaller
increase in ice thickness. A zero-runoff experiment results in a slower decrease in ice thickness than the zero-precipitation
case, due to the decadal time scale of the transport of runoff in the model. The results suggest that decadal trends in both
arctic precipitation and river runoffs, caused either by anthropogenic or natural climatic change, have the potential to exert
broad-scale impacts on the arctic sea ice regime.
Received: 6 February 1996 / Accepted: 4 April 1996 相似文献
Human activities in the Arctic are often mentioned as recipients of climate-change impacts. In this paper we consider the
more complicated but more likely possibility that human activities themselves can interact with climate or environmental change
in ways that either mitigate or exacerbate the human impacts. Although human activities in the Arctic are generally assumed
to be modest, our analysis suggests that those activities may have larger influences on the arctic system than previously
thought. Moreover, human influences could increase substantially in the near future. First, we illustrate how past human activities
in the Arctic have combined with climatic variations to alter biophysical systems upon which fisheries and livestock depend.
Second, we describe how current and future human activities could precipitate or affect the timing of major transitions in
the arctic system. Past and future analyses both point to ways in which human activities in the Arctic can substantially influence
the trajectory of arctic system change. 相似文献
Survey and Geographic Information System (GIS) data analysis describes the relative influence of biophysical and human variables on site choices made by marine farmers in New Zealand. Community conflicts have grown in importance in determining farm location and different government planning strategies leave distinct signature patterns. Recent legislation empowers local governments to choose among three strategies for future regional aquaculture development. This paper suggests each strategy could result in different spatial outcomes. Simulation modelling of the type described here can provide a better understanding of farmer responses to management approaches and the range of futures that could result from planning choices made today. 相似文献
Seasonal snowpacks in marginal snow environments are typically warm and nearly isothermal, exhibiting high inter‐ and intra‐annual variability. Measurements of snow depth and snow water equivalent were made across a small subalpine catchment in the Australian Alps over two snow seasons in order to investigate the extent and implications of snowpack spatial variability in this marginal setting. The distribution and dynamics of the snowpack were found to be influenced by upwind terrain, vegetation, solar radiation, and slope. The role of upwind vegetation was quantified using a novel parameter based on gridded vegetation height. The elevation range of the catchment was relatively modest (185 m), and elevation impacted distribution but not dynamics. Two characteristic features of marginal snowpack behaviour are presented. Firstly, the evolution of the snowpack is described in terms of a relatively unstable accumulation state and a highly stable ablation state, as revealed by temporal variations in the mean and standard deviation of snow water equivalent. Secondly, the validity of partitioning the snow season into distinct accumulation and ablation phases is shown to be compromised in such a setting. Snow at the most marginal locations may undergo complete melt several times during a season and, even where snow cover is more persistent, ablation processes begin to have an effect on the distribution of the snowpack early in the season. Our results are consistent with previous research showing that individual point measurements are unable to fully represent the variability in the snowpack across a catchment, and we show that recognising and addressing this variability are particularly important for studies in marginal snow environments. 相似文献
Fault-controlled hydrothermal dolomitization in tectonically complex basins can occur at any depth and from different fluid compositions, including ‘deep-seated’, ‘crustal’ or ‘basinal’ brines. Nevertheless, many studies have failed to identify the actual source of these fluids, resulting in a gap in our knowledge on the likely source of magnesium of hydrothermal dolomitization. With development of new concepts in hydrothermal dolomitization, the study aims in particular to test the hypothesis that dolomitizing fluids were sourced from either seawater, ultramafic carbonation or a mixture between the two by utilizing the Cambrian Mount Whyte Formation as an example. Here, the large-scale dolostone bodies are fabric-destructive with a range of crystal fabrics, including euhedral replacement (RD1) and anhedral replacement (RD2). Since dolomite is cross-cut by low amplitude stylolites, dolomitization is interpreted to have occurred shortly after deposition, at a very shallow depth (<1 km). At this time, there would have been sufficient porosity in the mudstones for extensive dolomitization to occur, and the necessary high heat flows and faulting associated with Cambrian rifting to transfer hot brines into the near surface. While the δ18Owater and 87Sr/86Sr ratios values of RD1 are comparable with Cambrian seawater, RD2 shows higher values in both parameters. Therefore, although aspects of the fluid geochemistry are consistent with dolomitization from seawater, very high fluid temperature and salinity could be suggestive of mixing with another, hydrothermal fluid. The very hot temperature, positive Eu anomaly, enriched metal concentrations, and cogenetic relation with quartz could indicate that hot brines were at least partially sourced from ultramafic rocks, potentially as a result of interaction between the underlying Proterozoic serpentinites and CO2-rich fluids. This study highlights that large-scale hydrothermal dolostone bodies can form at shallow burial depths via mixing during fluid pulses, providing a potential explanation for the mass balance problem often associated with their genesis. 相似文献
Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.
Survival, growth rates and functionality of larvae have been hypothesised to correlate with higher lipid provisioning in older teleosts. To test the lipid provisioning part of this hypothesis, we investigated the total and relative (mg/g) lipid (triglyceride) concentration in both the source (liver) and sink (gonad) lipidation organs of female snapper Chrysophrys auratus across age, size and condition factor throughout its spawning season. Age, size and condition factor had little discernible effect on the total or relative lipid concentration in either liver or gonadal tissue. Therefore, if oocyte quality (based on triglyceride concentration) is comparable across a population, research on the relationship between lipidomics and reproductive success needs to move beyond highlighting correlations to elucidating causation by focusing on the biochemical mechanisms of egg quality and larval survival, identifying maternal parameters associated with consistent lipid provisioning, and partitioning of phenotypic and genotypic maternal influences. 相似文献