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We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.  相似文献   

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We obtain the wave velocities and quality factors of clay‐bearing sandstones as a function of pore pressure, frequency and partial saturation. The model is based on a Biot‐type three‐phase theory that considers the coexistence of two solids (sand grains and clay particles) and a fluid mixture. Additional attenuation is described with the constant‐Q model and viscodynamic functions to model the high‐frequency behaviour. We apply a uniform gas/fluid mixing law that satisfies the Wood and Voigt averages at low and high frequencies, respectively. Pressure effects are accounted for by using an effective stress law. By fitting a permeability model of the Kozeny– Carman type to core data, the model is able to predict wave velocity and attenuation from seismic to ultrasonic frequencies, including the effects of partial saturation. Testing of the model with laboratory data shows good agreement between predictions and measurements.  相似文献   
5.
The same mathematical theory can be used to describe physical phenomena of different nature. For instance, the wave equation and the related mathematical developments can be used to describe elastic and electromagnetic wave propagation, and it is also extensively used in quantum mechanics. Fresnel's equations are a classical example of the analogy between shear waves and light waves. George Green in the nineteenth century, used analogies to obtain the reflection coefficients for sound waves and light waves, before the advent of the electromagnetic theory of light.In this work, we investigate the mathematical analogy between elastic waves and electromagentic waves. We obtain a complete parallelism for the reflection and refraction problem, considering the most general situation, that is, the presence of anisotropy and attenuation—viscosity in the elastic case and conductivity in the electromagnetic case. The analogy is illustrated with Fresnel's equations, the Brewster and critical angles, the concept of reflectivity and transmissivity, and the corresponding duals fields. The analysis of the elastic-solid theory of reflection applied by Green to light waves, and a brief historical review of wave propagation through the ether, further illustrate the analogy.  相似文献   
6.
Electrical, seismic, and electromagnetic methods can be used for noninvasive determination of subsurface physical and chemical properties. In particular, we consider the evaluation of water salinity and the detection of surface contaminants. Most of the relevant properties are represented by electric conductivity, P-wave velocity, and dielectric permittivity. Hence, it is important to obtain relationships between these measurable physical quantities and soil composition, saturation, and frequency. Conductivity in the geoelectric frequency range is obtained with Pride's model for a porous rock. (The model considers salinity and permeability.) White's model of patchy saturation is used to calculate the P-wave velocity and attenuation. Four cases are considered: light nonaqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) pockets in water, dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) pockets in water, LNAPL pockets in air, and DNAPL pockets in air. The size of the pockets (or pools), with respect to the signal wavelength, is modeled by the theory. The electromagnetic properties in the GPR frequency range are obtained by using the Hanai–Bruggeman equation for two solids (sand and clay grains) and two fluids (LNAPL or DNAPL in water or air). The Hanai–Bruggeman exponent (1/3 for spherical particles) is used as a fitting parameter and evaluated for a sand/clay mixture saturated with water.Pride's model predicts increasing conductivity for increasing salinity and decreasing permeability. The best-fit exponent of the Hanai–Bruggeman equation for a sand/clay mixture saturated with water is 0.61, indicating that the shape of the grains has a significant influence on the electromagnetic properties. At radar frequencies, it is possible to distinguish between a water-saturated medium and a NAPL-saturated medium, but LNAPL- and DNAPL-saturated media have very similar electromagnetic properties. The type of contaminant can be better distinguished from the acoustic properties. P-wave velocity increases with frequency, and has dissimilar behaviour for wet and dry soils.  相似文献   
7.
A crucial point in any methodology for avalanche hazard assessment is the evaluation of avalanche distance exceeded probability, i.e., the annual probability that any assigned location along a given path is reached or exceeded by an avalanche. Typically this problem is faced by estimating the snow volume in the starting zone that is likely to accumulate an average every T years by statistical analysis of snowfall record, and then using this volume as input to an appropriately calibrated avalanche dynamics model to determine the runout distancesfor this design event. This methodology identifies the areas that canbe affected by an avalanche for the considered value of the return period (i.e. the average interval of time for a certain event to repeat itself), ¯T. However, it does not allow us to evaluate the actual avalanche encounter probability for any given point in the runout zone. In the present work this probability is computed by numerical integration of the expression P(x) = ∫0 P*(V)f(V) dV, where f is the probabilitydensity function (PDF) of the avalanche release volume V, and P* is the probability of the point x being reached or passed by an avalanche if the release volume is V; this latter probability is calculated by avalanche dynamics simulations. The procedure is implemented using a one-dimensional hydraulic-continuum avalanche dynamic model, calibrated on data from different Italian Alpine ranges, and is applied to a real world hazard mapping problem.  相似文献   
8.
LIDAR Data Filtering and DTM Interpolation Within GRASS   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) is one of the most recent technologies in surveying and mapping. LIDAR is based on the combination of three different data collection tools: a laser scanner mounted on an aircraft, a Global Positioning System (GPS) used in phase differential kinematic modality to provide the sensor position and an Inertial Navigation System (INS) to provide the orientation. The laser sends towards the ground an infrared signal, which is reflected back to the sensor. The time employed by the signal, given the aircraft position and attitude, allows computation of the earth point elevation. In standard conditions, taking into account the flight (speed 200–250 km/hour, altitude 500–2,000 m) and sensor characteristics (scan angle ± 10–20 degrees, emission rate 2,000–50,000 pulses per second), earth elevations are collected within a density of one point every 0.5–3 m. The technology allows us therefore to obtain very accurate (5–20 cm) and high resolution Digital Surface Models (DSM). For many applications, the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) is needed: we have to automatically detect and discard from the previous DSM all the features (buildings, trees, etc.) present on the terrain. This paper describes a procedure that has been implemented within GRASS to construct DTMs from LIDAR source data.  相似文献   
9.
We estimate the concentration of gas hydrate and free gas at an area located to the north of the Knipovich Ridge (western Svalbard margin). The method is based on P-wave velocities computed by reflection tomography applied to multicomponent ocean-bottom seismometer data. The tomographic velocity field is fitted to theoretical velocities obtained from a poro-elastic model based on a Biot-type approach (the interaction between the rock frame, gas hydrate and fluid is modelled from first physical principles). We obtain average hydrate concentrations of 7% and maximum free-gas saturations of 0.4% and 9%, depending on the saturation model.  相似文献   
10.
A multi‐method approach (palaeothermal and thermochronological analyses; thermal modelling) is applied to reconstruct the exhumation history of the Altotiberina Fault (ATF), a representative example of crustal‐scale active low‐angle normal faulting in the Northern Apennines (Italy). Thermal maturity and thermochronological data yield similar burial histories but different exhumation patterns for the sedimentary successions in the hangingwall and the footwall of the ATF. Since 3.8 Ma, the ATF footwall has exhumed at rates of 0.90 mm a?1. Exhumation led to bending and deactivation of the ATF uppermost portion as a result of tectonic unloading and isostatic adjustment, followed by migration of extension and the development of a set of domino‐like, east‐dipping normal faults, rooting on the buried portion of the ATF. ATF activity and isostatic rebound exhumed Triassic rock units from depths of about 4 km. We suggest that isostatic instability is accommodated at shallow crustal levels, in a similar way to what is observed on larger structures at mid‐low crustal levels.  相似文献   
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