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1.
Summary The Betts-Miller and the Kain-Fritsch schemes are two of the many approaches to convective parameterization available to
modelers. In the case of hurricane Irene (1999), the choice of parameterization markedly impacted the modeled track and structure
of the hurricane and its subsequent extratropical transition. Specifically, in model runs using Betts-Miller, Irene recurved
too early, causing the storm to weaken over the cool open ocean, delaying its transition, and changing the character of the
storm. The Kain-Fritsch scheme more accurately reproduced the track of Irene and, hence, its interaction with upper-level
features that caused extratropical transition and post-transition intensification. The two parameterizations produce different
characteristic vertical warming profiles; the differences in warming are related to the structural differences in the simulated
storm, affecting the hurricane response to its environment.
Received October 13, 2001 Revised December 23, 2001 相似文献
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Chih-Chun Lin Laura K. Siebeneck Michael K. Lindell Carla S. Prater Hao-Che Wu Shih-Kai Huang 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(1):865-882
In the aftermath of a hurricane, local emergency managers need to communicate reentry plans to households that might be scattered over multiple counties or states. To better understand evacuees’ households’ reliance on different information sources at the time they decided to return home, this study collected data on reentry after Hurricane Ike. The results from a survey of 340 evacuating households indicated that there was low compliance with official reentry plans and that none of the information sources produced greater compliance with official reentry plans. Nonetheless, there were significant changes in the utilization of different sources of emergency information over the course of an evacuation but local news media remained the most common sources throughout the event. There also were significant differences in the relative importance of different sources of reentry information, with people relying most on information from peers. In summary, local authorities need to identify more effective ways to communicate with evacuees that have relocated to distant communities and to motivate them to comply with official reentry plans. 相似文献
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The logistics of household hurricane evacuation 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Although there is a substantial amount of research on households’ hurricane evacuation decision making, there is much less
research on the logistical issues involved in implementing those evacuations. The limited research on household evacuation
logistics has consistently shown that most evacuees stay in the homes of friends and relatives or in commercial facilities
rather than in public shelters. However, evacuation logistics—which can be defined as the activities and associated resources
needed to reach a safe location and remain there until it is safe to return—encompasses a much broader range of behaviors
than this. The present study extends previous research by reporting data on other aspects of evacuation logistics such as
departure timing, vehicle use, evacuation routes, travel distance, shelter type, evacuation duration, and evacuation cost.
Hurricane Lili evacuation data at the county level are generally consistent with the data from previous hurricanes, but there
is notable variation across counties studied here. There were only modest correlations of demographic and geographic variables
with the evacuation logistics variables, a result that indicates further research is needed to better understand what happens
between the time an evacuation decision is made and the time re-entry is begun. Moreover, research is needed to understand
the logistics of evacuation by special populations such as transients and households with disabled members. 相似文献
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This article describes the challenges confronting local authorities who must decide if and when to initiate evacuations from
tropical cyclones. This problem can be decomposed into the behavior of the hurricane that is relevant to evacuation and the
behavior of evacuees that is relevant to the hurricane. The uncertain behavior of these two systems can be modeled in an evacuation
management decision support system (EMDSS). The hurricane EMDSS described here displays information about the minimum, most,
and maximum probable evacuation time estimates (ETEs) in comparison to the earliest, most, and latest probable estimated times
of arrival (ETAs) for storm conditions. In addition, EMDSS calculates the cost of false positive (the economic cost of an
evacuation) and false negative (lives lost in a late evacuation) decision errors. EMDSS is being used in experiments to assess
different information displays, team compositions, community characteristics, and hurricane scenarios. In addition, it will
be used in training and actual hurricane operations. Finally, definition of the program’s requirements has identified further
research needed to build a better empirical base for its input data. 相似文献
5.
Lindell Michael K. Jung Meen Chel Prater Carla S. House Donald H. 《Natural Hazards》2022,114(1):849-881
Natural Hazards - This study surveyed 227 residents in three US Pacific Coast communities that are vulnerable to a Cascadia subduction zone tsunami. In the Brochure condition, information was... 相似文献
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Laura K. Siebeneck Michael K. Lindell Carla S. Prater Hao-Che Wu Shih-Kai Huang 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):2267-2286
Managing evacuees’ reentry into their communities after an evacuation can be a major challenge for emergency managers, especially in instances when evacuees return before the official all-clear message. Despite the frequency of post-evacuation reentry into evacuated areas, there have been few studies of this process and the issues returnees expect and experience during the return phase. A survey of evacuees after Hurricane Ike indicates that household compliance with reentry plans was low, with only a minority of returnees (38 %) complying with official reentry plans. An examination of reentry concerns shows that minority ethnicity, lower education, and lower income were associated with higher levels of reentry concerns and, to a lesser extent, with problems experienced after returning. Results also indicate that none of the demographic variables correlated significantly with compliance with official reentry plans and only higher income predicted later entry. However, concerns about reentry traffic predicted earlier reentry and concern about physical risk was related to reentry plan compliance. This study provides insight into the concerns that motivate households’ reentry decisions and can inform the creation of return strategies that account for people’s concerns about their hurricane-impacted communities. 相似文献
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Circulation and mixing at the New England shelfbreak front: Results of purposeful tracer experiments 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We present the results of six dye tracer experiments that measured the mixing and circulation at the shelfbreak front on the New England Shelf. The last three were conducted during the New England Shelfbreak Productivity Experiment (NESPEX) with concurrent isopycnal float deployments. The results are consistent with the Chapman and Lentz [Chapman, D.C., and Lentz, S.J. (1994). Trapping of a coastal density front by the bottom boundary layer. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 24, 1465–1479.] model prediction of the separation and upwelling along the shelfbreak front of bottom boundary layer (BBL) water forced by an Ekman buoyancy flux, but show considerable variability. Cross-shelf velocities at the detachment point are 2–3 × 10−2 m/s. But seaward, over the slope region, dye tagged water was sheared from the main patch into small filaments that upwelled along the front with cross-shelf speeds up to 0.1 m/s. Cross-shelf diffusion was of order 10 m2/s in the mixed bottom layer and 1 m2/s in the interior along the front. Within the stratified front, the mean vertical diffusivity was Kz 4 × 10−6 m2/s. The dispersion of shelfwater in the slope region is effected by turbulent flow with advective speeds exceeding the small scale diffusive mixing. The mean flux of the detached BBL water is sufficient to account for the net loss of shelf water during its transit from Cape Cod to Cape Hatteras. 相似文献