An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response     

David P. Bacon  Nash’at N. Ahmad  Thomas J. Dunn  Michael C. Monteith  Ananthakrishna Sarma 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(3):317-327

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.  相似文献   

Response of the barrier island coastal region of southwestern Nigeria to climate and non-climate forcing     

IB Danladi  M Gül  E Ateş 《African Journal of Marine Science》2020,42(1):43-51

Despite threats emanating from the influence of climate and non-climate forcing on the barrier island coastal region of southwestern Nigeria, the extent of the coastal erosion is poorly understood. We report evidence of coastal erosion and sediment accumulation in the region over a 34-year period (1973–2017), using Landsat imagery at intervals of approximately six years. Landsat image corrections and various water-extraction algorithms were used to systematically delineate coastal erosion and accumulation in the area. The region was subdivided into western and eastern subregions separated by Lagos Harbour. In the west, erosion took place during the periods 1973–1979, 1979–1984, 1990–1999 and 2005–2011, whereas in the east, erosion occurred during 1973–1979, 1990–1999 and 1999–2005. Coastal sediment accumulation occurred in the east during 1979–1984, 1984–1990, 2005–2011 and 2011–2017, whereas gains in the west occurred during 1984–1990, 1999–2005 and 2011–2017. The study revealed substantial net erosion of 1 228.1 ha in the region as a whole, over the full period. Sediment accumulation accompanying the coastal erosion appears to be linked to longshore drift. Erosion between 1973 and 2011 was probably attributable to climate change (storms and tidal conditions), longshore drift, the inflow and outflow of water at Lagos Harbour, coastal morphology and, possibly, human impacts. However, the coastal changes between 2011 and 2017 were more obviously associated with human activities, such as development of the Eko Atlantic construction project. Coastal surveillance, together with the use of environmentally sensitive protective measures, could possibly help to reduce coastal erosion in the region. Careful coastal management practices, including artificial nourishing and the installation of resilient structures (e.g. seawalls), should be undertaken to protect human settlements that are already at risk from sea-level rise.  相似文献   

Threshold condition of sand particles under codirectional combined wave and current flow     

M. S. Kapdaşli 《Geo-Marine Letters》1990,10(1):45-49

Flume experiments were carried out to determine the threshold of movement of sand on rippled surface and flat beds under the codirectional combined flows due to waves and currents. The results indicate that Shields's curve can be used to determine the threshold condition under combined flows, provided that the maximum bed shear stress is used.  相似文献   

Quaternary evolution of the Gulf of İzmit (NW Turkey): a sedimentary basin under control of the North Anatolian Fault Zone     

Erdal Dolu  Erkan Gökaşan  Engin Meriç  Mustafa Ergin  Tolga Görüm  Hüseyin Tur  Berkan Ecevitoğlu  Niyazi Avşar  Muhittin Görmüş  Fatmagül Batuk  Buğser Tok  Oktay Çetin 《Geo-Marine Letters》2007,27(6):355-381

The Quaternary evolution of the Gulf of İzmit, situated on the tectonically active North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), was investigated using seismic reflection, paleontologic, and sediment textural data. On the basis of seismic stratigraphic and sedimentologic-paleontologic interpretations, four depositional units were distinguished within the Plio-Quaternary sequence of the Gulf of İzmit. According to these data, Plio-Quaternary deposits supplied from the northern terrestrial area started to accumulate during a progradational phase, in a south-facing half-graben. A coarse-grained sedimentary unit prograding into the gulf from the south since 200 ka b.p. indicates a dramatic variation in the evolution of the gulf, with the initiation of a new strike-slip fault of the NAFZ and a corresponding uplift of the Armutlu Peninsula in the south of the gulf. During the evolution of this fault from a wide shear zone consisting of right-stepped strike-slip faults and pull-apart basins to a localized principal fault zone, sediments were deposited under the influence of northerly prograding terrestrial and shallow-marine conditions due to relative sea-level fluctuations in the Marmara Sea. During this period, the Gulf of İzmit was invaded mainly by Mediterranean and partly by Black Sea waters. In the latest glacial period, shallow areas in the gulf became subaerially exposed, whereas the central and western sub-basins of the gulf turned into lakes. The present evolution of the Gulf of İzmit is controlled by the after effects of the new rupture of the NAFZ and the estuarine nature of the gulf environment.  相似文献   

Stratigraphy of the sediment infill in Bosphorus Strait: water exchange between the Black and Mediterranean Seas during the last glacial Holocene     

O. Algan  N. Çağatay  A. Tchepalyga  D. Ongan  C. Eastoe  E. Gökaşan 《Geo-Marine Letters》2001,20(4):209-218

The sediment infill over the Paleozoic bedrock in the Bosphorus Strait consists of four sedimentary units which were deposited in the last 26,000 ¹⁴C years B.P. The stratigraphy of these units suggests that this part of the Bosphorus was a freshwater lake between 26,000 and 5,300 ¹⁴C years B.P., depositing sands with a freshwater mollusc fauna of Black Sea neo-euxinian affinity (Dreissena rostriformis, Dreissena polymorpha, and Monodacna pontica). The first appearance of euryhaline Mediterranean molluscs (e.g., Ostrea edulis, Mytilus edulis) was observed at 5,300 ¹⁴C years B.P. in this part of the Bosphorus. Deposition of coarse Mytilus-bank and Ostrea-bank units suggests that the establishment of the present dual-flow regime in the Bosphorus took place at about 4,400 ¹⁴C years B.P.  相似文献   

Fluid inclusion and stable isotope characteristics of the Karalar (Gazipaşa,Antalya) barite-galena deposits,Southern Turkey     

A. Gökşe  G. Bozkaya 《Geology of Ore Deposits》2008,50(2):145-154

The Karalar galena-barite deposits are typical examples of the carbonate-hosted barite-galena deposits widely occurring in the Central Tauride Belt. These deposits are located in Permian limestones as ore veins along fault zones that are discordant to the bedding planes and as thin veinlets within hardly brecciated bottom zones of Permian limestones. The ore deposits contain mainly barite and galena and small amounts of sphalerite, pyrite, fahlore, limonite, quartz, and calcite. Barites occur during the earlier episode of mineralization and were mylonitized before the formation of galena. Galena and other minerals occur epigenetically with barite along porous zones between brecciated barite crystals and are especially abundant in the hardly mylonitized zones. Fluid inclusion studies indicate that the ore deposits of the area were developed by hydrothermal fluids with following characteristics: they contained NaCl, CaCl₂, and MgCl₂; the salinity of the fluids was relatively high and their temperature was low during the crystallization of barites in the earlier episode of mineralization; and the salinity of the fluids decreased and their temperature increased during the crystallization of sulfide minerals through the later episode of mineralization. δ₁₈O and the δD results indicate that the water in the mineralizing fluid was of meteoric origin. The deposits were formed by deep meteoric water circulating through marine sediments. Shallow circulating and slightly warmed fluids dissolved Ba and sulfate from marine sediments of the basement and transported them to the mineralization environment during the early episode, while deep circulating and more heated fluids dissolved Pb, Zn, and other elements from the basement and reached the environment during the later episode of mineralization. The text was submitted by the authors in English.  相似文献   

Damage risk assessment of breakwaters under tsunami attack     

Ayşen Ergin  Can Elmar Balas 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(2):231-243

Turkey was struck by two major events on 17 August and 12 November 1999, named Izmit (M _w = 7.4) and Düzce (M _w = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. Rubble mound breakwaters in Izmit Bay experienced little damage, as forecasted by the new risk assessment model in which tsunami occurrence risk was included in the damage estimations. In order to determine the occurrence probability of structural damage under design conditions, including the environmental loading parameters of tsunami and storm waves, tidal range and storm surge, the Conditional Expections Monte Carlo simulation was applied in the risk assessment model developed in this study for the Esenköy Fishery Harbour, Turkey. A tsunami was not the key design parameter when compared to storm waves for the main breakwater of the harbour, however, in places with great seismic activity, the tsunami risk should be important depending on the occurrence probability and magnitude of the tsunami.  相似文献   

Patterns in the Turkish reinsurance claim data, 1998–2002: An application of the extreme value theory     

B. Burçak Başbuğ  Henry P. Wynn 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(2):329-342

The devastating 1999 Marmara and Düzce earthquakes led to a significant increase in the earthquake studies in Turkey in geological, engineering and financial aspects. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has a range of applications from stock market changes to natural disasters like floods and hurricanes. Here EVT is fitted to the ordinary and earthquake reinsurance claims of Turkey.  相似文献   

Back-analysis of a seismically induced highway embankment failure during the 1999 Düzce earthquake     

Ömer Aydan  Reşat Ulusay 《Environmental Geology》2002,42(6):621-631

An earthquake of magnitude 7.2 on the Richter scale occurred on 12 November 1999 in the Düzce-Bolu region of Turkey. The region was also hit approximately 3 months before during the devastating Kocaeli earthquake of 17 August 1999. Besides high casualties and damage to various engineering structures and buildings, slope and embankment failures on the highway and the country roads occurred. In this study, the authors are concerned with the back-analysis of an embankment failure that occurred on the four lanes E-5 highway connecting Ankara to Gstanbul at Bakacak in the Bolu Province during the 1999 Düzce earthquake. Both pseudo-dynamic and dynamic limiting equilibrium methods are used to back analyse the conditions for the initiation of failure and also displacement responses of the embankment during the earthquake shaking. After having given a brief summary of the investigations on the post-failure state, the geology and geotechnical characteristics of the site, and the dynamic limiting equilibrium method developed and used for analyses are described. The results of the back-analysis based on a pseudo-dynamic approach, revealed that the maximum ground acceleration to initiate the failure of the embankment was probably about 0.125 g. On the other hand, the application of a method for computing the displacement and velocity responses of the failed embankment showed that the failure was possible when the embankment was subjected to ground accelerations similar to that recorded at the Düzce station. In addition, the computations also revealed that the time history of accelerations could be very important for the failure of slopes and embankments.  相似文献   

A simple test and predictive models for assessing swell potential of Ankara (Turkey) Clay     

Zeynal Abiddin Erguler  Resat Ulusay   《Engineering Geology》2003,67(3-4):331-352

During the past three decades, damage due to swelling action of Ankara Clay has been observed more clearly in some parts of Ankara where rapid expansion of the city led to the construction of various kinds of structures. In this study, a comprehensive research program has been conducted (i) to investigate the effect of remoulding and desiccation on the swelling behavior of Ankara Clay and its swelling anisotropy, (ii) to estimate depth of active zone, (iii) to develop a simple technique in determining the magnitude of swelling based on water content of the soaked specimen after 24 and 72 h (w_max24,72), and (iv) to produce predictive models which could be used to estimate the swelling potential of Ankara Clay from its mineralogical and simply measured engineering characteristics. A laboratory testing program was carried out using both undisturbed, and remoulded and desiccated samples selected from 20 different locations. Montmorillonite was identified as being the main clay mineral present. Based on the moisture content variation with depth, the active expansive zone was considered to be about 2 m. The test results suggest that swelling pressure of the clay considerably decreases and/or dies out when the water content is greater than 30%. It is also noted that the measured lateral swelling is significantly in excess of the vertical equivalent indicating an anisotropy with respect to swelling. Statistical assessments indicate that a new parameter (w_max24,72) from a simple test, suggested in this study, is a very strong parameter for predicting swelling parameters of Ankara Clay. Based on 60 empirical predictive equations with coefficients of correlation between 0.96 and 0.66 from multiple regression analyses, w_max24,72, methylene blue value, liquid limit, dry unit weight and smectite content are the most important index and mineralogical properties to predict the swelling parameters of Ankara clay with small deviations from the measured values.  相似文献