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1.
都匀市是贵州省城镇滑坡地质灾害多发频发区。文章以都匀市沙包堡镇为研究区,采用栅格单元提取高程、坡度、岩性、水系等9项致灾因子,分别使用都基于数学统计模型的定量分析方法（二元逻辑回归模型、信息量模型）和定性分析方法（层次分析模型）对都匀市研究区滑坡地质灾害易发性进行评价。结果表明:二元逻辑回归模型预测精度与预测效果均为最优,其ROC曲线下面积AUC值为0.873,易发性分区中高易发区和中易发区内预测发生滑坡面积比占95.41%,且最符合野外实地调查验证情况。评价方法与结果可为贵州城镇地区滑坡地质灾害评价和防治提供借鉴。 相似文献
2.
2016年9月5日北川县陈家坝乡发生突发性滑坡,堆积体堵塞河道形成堰塞湖。该滑坡为 2008年“5.12”汶川8.0级特大地震诱发的同震滑坡的局部复活。文章利用GIS和遥感技术,基于多期高精度遥感影像和数字高程模型(DEM),分析了滑坡的变形特征及历史,测算了滑坡和堰塞湖的范围及规模。根据水位监测数据,计算两次事件水位库容对应关系曲线。同时,结合野外调查分析了该滑坡两次失稳的主控因素和形成机制。结果显示研究区在历史上共发生三次滑动,其中2008年同震滑坡主要是由于龙门山中央断裂带,映秀—北川断裂横跨滑源区,地震时强烈的断层逆冲错动,导致位于断层上盘的坡体瞬间失稳;而2016年滑坡局部复活主要是由于2008年地震造成坡体结构破碎解体,松散的同震滑坡物质堆积于斜坡上,坡体自身稳定性大大降低,加之近期地震活动和河流侵蚀坡脚等内外动力地质作用的影响,导致滑坡复活。 相似文献
3.
四川岷江上游叠溪发育有一套厚度超过200 m、保存较为完整的湖相沉积,被定名为叠溪古堰塞湖相沉积,其形成于距今30 ka前,存活了约15 ka,因此记录了青藏高原东缘晚更新世—全新世(包括末次冰期)的重大地质与环境事件。现有研究初步揭示了古堰塞的沉积特征,但对叠溪古滑坡及古堰塞湖形成与演化的系统研究还十分不足。本文通过详细的野外调查,结合现代遥感测绘技术(无人机载LiDAR),构建叠溪古滑坡的三维地质模型,研究了其地质与地貌特征。同时,采用高密度电阻率法ERT,在滑坡体上布设2条长870 m和990 m的测线,探明了滑坡体内部结构特征。通过古堰塞湖相沉积露头和钻孔的调查,结合激光粒度测试,重建了古堰塞湖的范围、规模与沉积特征。在此基础上,通过对古湖相沉积坡面上多级阶地的分析,初步探讨了古堰塞湖的消亡及其对下游史前古聚落变迁的影响。研究结果表明,叠溪古滑坡不仅完全堵塞岷江而且还堵塞了对岸支沟,堆积体方量达到(1 400~2 000)×106 m3。古堰塞湖在滑坡坝后向上游延伸26 km,所形成的最大湖面覆盖面积约21.4 km2,库容蓄水量约1 670×106 m3。叠溪古滑坡-堰塞湖在岷江上游形成了陡峭的河道裂点(Knickpoint),对山区河道与地貌演化具有长期影响。 相似文献
4.
Landslide susceptibility zonation method based on C5.0 decision tree and K-means cluster algorithms to improve the efficiency of risk management 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Machine learning algorithms are an important measure with which to perform landslide susceptibility assessments,but most studies use GIS-based classification methods to conduct susceptibility zonation.This study presents a machine learning approach based on the C5.0 decision tree(DT)model and the K-means cluster algorithm to produce a regional landslide susceptibility map.Yanchang County,a typical landslide-prone area located in northwestern China,was taken as the area of interest to introduce the proposed application procedure.A landslide inventory containing 82 landslides was prepared and subse-quently randomly partitioned into two subsets:training data(70％landslide pixels)and validation data(30％landslide pixels).Fourteen landslide influencing factors were considered in the input dataset and were used to calculate the landslide occurrence probability based on the C5.0 decision tree model.Susceptibility zonation was implemented according to the cut-off values calculated by the K-means clus-ter algorithm.The validation results of the model performance analysis showed that the AUC(area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve)of the proposed model was the highest,reaching 0.88,compared with traditional models(support vector machine(SVM)=0.85,Bayesian network(BN)=0.81,frequency ratio(FR)=0.75,weight of evidence(WOE)=0.76).The landslide frequency ratio and fre-quency density of the high susceptibility zones were 6.76/km2 and 0.88/km2,respectively,which were much higher than those of the low susceptibility zones.The top 20％interval of landslide occurrence probability contained 89％of the historical landslides but only accounted for 10.3％of the total area.Our results indicate that the distribution of high susceptibility zones was more focused without contain-ing more"stable"pixels.Therefore,the obtained susceptibility map is suitable for application to landslide risk management practices. 相似文献
5.
Xuanmei Fan David G. Rossiter Cees J. van Westen Qiang Xu Tolga Görüm 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(14):1913-1926
In this study we develop an empirical method to estimate the volume threshold for predicting coseismic landslide dam formation using landscape parameters obtained from digital elevation models (DEMs). We hypothesize that the potential runout and volume of landslides, together with river features, determine the likelihood of the formation of a landslide dam. To develop this method, a database was created by randomly selecting 140 damming and 200 non‐damming landslides from 501 landslide dams and > 60 000 landslides induced by the Mw 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. We used this database to parameterize empirical runout models by stepwise multivariate regression. We find that factors controlling landslide runout are landslide initiation volume, landslide type, internal relief (H) and the H/L ratio (between H and landslide horizontal distance to river, L). In order to obtain a first volume threshold for a landslide to reach a river, the runout regression equations were converted into inverse volume equations by taking the runout to be the distance to river. A second volume threshold above which a landslide is predicted to block a river was determined by the correlation between river width and landslide volume of the known damming landslides. The larger of these two thresholds was taken as the final damming threshold. This method was applied to several landslide types over a fine geographic grid of assumed initiation points in a selected catchment. The overall prediction accuracy was 97.4% and 86.0% for non‐damming and damming landslides, respectively. The model was further tested by predicting the damming landslides over the whole region, with promising results. We conclude that our method is robust and reliable for the Wenchuan event. In combination with pre‐event landslide susceptibility and frequency–size assessments, it can be used to predict likely damming locations of future coseismic landslides, thereby helping to plan emergency response. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
A catastrophic rockslide-debris flow in Wulong, Chongqing, China in 2009: background, characterization, and causes 总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4
Qiang Xu Xuanmei Fan Runqiu Huang Yueping Yin Shengshan Hou Xiujun Dong Minggao Tang 《Landslides》2010,7(1):75-87
On June 5, 2009, a catastrophic rockslide-debris flow occurred at the crest of the Jiweishan Mountain in Wulong, Chongqing,
China. Approximately five million cubic meters of limestone blocks slid along a weak interlayer of bituminous and carbonaceous
shale. The source mass descended from the upper part of the slope rapidly, crossing a 200-m wide and 50-m deep creek in front
of it. Blocked by the opposite steep creek wall, the sliding mass changed its direction and traveled a further 2.2 km along
the creek in debris-flow mode, finally forming a large accumulation zone with an average depth of 30 m. This is one of the
most catastrophic rockslide events in recent years in China. It buried 12 houses and the entrance of an iron mining tunnel
where some 27 miners were working inside. Ten people died, 64 missing, and eight wounded. Immediately after this disaster
happened, the government organized an expert team to assist the rescue work. As one of the geological experts, the author
did a lot of field investigations and collected first-hand information. Multi-methods including the remote sensing, 3D laser
scanning, geophysical exploration, and numerical modeling were used for analyzing the characteristics and the triggering mechanism
of the Wulong rockslide. The preliminary investigation results reveal that this rockslide with poor geological conditions
was mainly induced by the gravitation and the karst effect and also affected by the previous mining activities. The research
in this paper is meaningful and useful for further research on such kind of rockslides that are geologically similar to the
Wulong rockslide. 相似文献
7.
汶川震区暴雨泥石流激发雨型特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
汶川地震后暴雨诱发的泥石流不断增加,通过收集整理降雨资料,分析汶川震区不同地域泥石流暴发的激发雨强及前期有效累计降雨量变化过程,揭示震区暴雨泥石流的激发雨型特征,为暴雨泥石流的预报提供科学依据。研究结果表明,汶川震区的暴雨泥石流激发雨型可分为短期突然降雨型、中期持续降雨型和长期间断降雨型3种类型,主要表现为引发泥石流的激发雨强及前期有效累计降雨量的不同。暴雨泥石流的形成机制体现为降雨导致流域内松散土体渗透、饱和及侵蚀移动的过程。激发雨型与激发雨强及前期有效累计降雨量存在相关关系,短期突然降雨型的激发雨强最大,前期有效累计降雨量最少;中期持续降雨型的激发雨强居中,前期有效累计降雨量最多;长期间断降雨型的激发雨强最小,前期有效累计降雨量居中。对四川茂县叠溪镇新磨村突发山体高位垮塌碎屑流进行验证,初步判定是由长期间断降雨型引发岩体抗剪强度降低而引起的。对不同激发雨型特征的研究能够为汶川震区泥石流监测预警提供科学依据。 相似文献
8.
地震动参数对斜坡加速度动力响应规律的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
2008年‘5.12’汶川大地震诱发斜坡地质灾害在空间分布上表现出了明显的高程效应和岩性效应。本文采用上硬下软和上软下硬两种典型岩性组合斜坡模型,完成了1:100比尺的振动台试验。文中重点分析了地震波类型(频谱)、激振方向和地震动三参数对斜坡模型水平向加速度动力响应规律的影响。分析结果表明:(1)水平单向激振时,15Hz正弦波和汶川地震波作用下的高程放大效应主要体现在斜坡模型中上段,两者在上软下硬组合斜坡模型中产生了近乎相同的水平向加速度动力响应规律,原因主要在于两者的卓越频率接近。(2)模型对合成向汶川地震波的放大作用依次超过单向水平向和竖直向汶川波的作用,且合成向与水平单向汶川地震波的作用规律基本相同。(3)随着振动强度增加,模型对低频波的放大作用增强。(4)在合成向汶川地震动作用下,随着振动强度增加,模型各高程处的水平向加速度峰值(PGA)逐渐增加,其相应的放大系数在模型中上段逐渐降低至2.0以下,最终趋于平缓,表明模型沿高程向的放大效应逐渐减弱。此外,各参数对模型的水平向加速度响应因模型自身的岩性组合结构而异,随着振动强度增加,上硬下软斜坡模型中上部的水平向速度响应值基本保持在1.0～2.7倍于上软下硬斜坡模型中上部的水平向加速度响应值这一水平。 相似文献
9.
Failure mechanism and kinematics of the deadly June 24th 2017 Xinmo landslide,Maoxian, Sichuan,China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Xuanmei Fan Qiang Xu Gianvito Scaringi Lanxin Dai Weile Li Xiujun Dong Xing Zhu Xiangjun Pei Keren Dai Hans-Balder Havenith 《Landslides》2017,14(6):2129-2146
At 5:38 am on the 24th June, 2017, a catastrophic rock avalanche destroyed the whole village of Xinmo, in Maoxian County, Sichuan Province, China. About 4.3 million m3 of rock detached from the crest of the mountain, gained momentum along a steep hillslope, entrained a large amount of pre-existing deposits, and hit the village at a velocity of 250 km/h. The impact produced a seismic shaking of ML = 2.3 magnitude. The sliding mass dammed the Songping gully with an accumulation body of 13 million m3. The avalanche buried 64 houses; 10 people were killed and 73 were reported missing. The event raised great concerns both in China and worldwide. Extensive field investigation, satellite remote sensing, UAV aerial photography, and seismic analysis allowed to identify the main kinematic features, the dynamic process, and the triggering mechanism of the event. With the aid of ground-based synthetic aperture radar monitoring, the hazard deriving from potential further instabilities in the source area has been assessed. The preliminary results suggest that the landslide was triggered by the failure of a rock mass, which had been already weakened by the Ms 7.5 Diexi earthquake in 1933. Several major earthquakes since then, and the long-term effect of gravity and rainfall, contributed to the mass failure. The high elevation, slope angle, and vegetation cover in the source area hinder geological field investigation and make hazard assessment difficult. Nonetheless, monitoring and prevention of similar collapses in mountainous areas must be carried out to protect human lives and infrastructures. To this aim, the integrated use of modern high-precision observation technologies is strongly encouraged. 相似文献
10.
Gianvito Scaringi Xuanmei Fan Qiang Xu Chun Liu Chaojun Ouyang Guillem Domènech Fan Yang Lanxin Dai 《Landslides》2018,15(7):1359-1375
Rock avalanches represent a serious risk for human lives, properties, and infrastructures. On June 24, 2017, a catastrophic landslide destroyed the village of Xinmo (Maoxian County, Sichuan, China) causing a large number of fatalities. Adjacent to the landslide source area, further potentially unstable masses were identified. Among them, a 4.5-million m3 body, displaced during the landslide event by about 40 m, raised serious concerns. Field monitoring and a reliable secondary risk assessment are fundamental to protect the infrastructure and the population still living in the valley. In this framework, the use of distinct element methods and continuum model methods to simulate the avalanche process was discussed. Various models (PFC, MatDEM, MassMov2D, Massflow) were used with the aim of reproducing the Xinmo landslide and, as predictive tools, simulating the kinematics and runout of the potentially unstable mass, which could cause a new catastrophic event. The models were all able to reproduce the first-order characteristics of the landslide kinematics and the morphology of the deposit, but with computational times differing by several orders of magnitude. More variability of the results was obtained from the simulations of the potential secondary failure. However, all models agreed that the new landslide could invest several still-inhabited buildings and block the course of the river again. Comparison and discussion of the performances and usability of the models could prove useful towards the enforcement of physically based (and multi-model) risk assessments and mitigation countermeasures. 相似文献