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Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
A. F. Prein A. Gobiet M. Suklitsch H. Truhetz N. K. Awan K. Keuler G. Georgievski 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2655-2677
In this study the added value of a ensemble of convection permitting climate simulations (CPCSs) compared to coarser gridded simulations is investigated. The ensemble consists of three non hydrostatic regional climate models providing five simulations with ~10 and ~3 km (CPCS) horizontal grid spacing each. The simulated temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and global radiation fields are evaluated within two seasons (JJA 2007 and DJF 2007–2008) in the eastern part of the European Alps. Spatial variability, diurnal cycles, temporal correlations, and distributions with focus on extreme events are analyzed and specific methods (FSS and SAL) are used for in-depth analysis of precipitation fields. The most important added value of CPCSs are found in the diurnal cycle improved timing of summer convective precipitation, the intensity of most extreme precipitation, and the size and shape of precipitation objects. These improvements are not caused by the higher resolved orography but by the explicit treatment of deep convection and the more realistic model dynamics. In contrary improvements in summer temperature fields can be fully attributed to the higher resolved orography. Generally, added value of CPCSs is predominantly found in summer, in complex terrain, on small spatial and temporal scales, and for high precipitation intensities. 相似文献
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Jewgenij Torizin Michael Fuchs Adnan Alam Awan Ijaz Ahmad Sardar Saeed Akhtar Simon Sadiq Asif Razzak Daniel Weggenmann Faseeh Fawad Nimra Khalid Faisan Sabir Ahsan Jamal Khan 《Natural Hazards》2017,87(2):757-771
This paper presents laboratory experiments and numerical simulations of effects of submerged obstacles on tsunami-like solitary wave and its run-up. This study was carried out for the breaking and non-breaking solitary waves on 1:19.85 uniform slope which contains a submerged obstacle. New laboratory experiments are performed to describe the mitigation of tsunami amplitude and run-up under the effect of submerged obstacles. We are based on experimental results obtained to validate the numerical model. The numerical modeling using COULWAVE aims essentially to show the effect of the obstacle on the shape of solitary wave and the limit of this effect. Using a multiple nonlinear regression, we have determined a model to estimate height of run-up according to the amplitude of the wave and the obstacle peak depth. 相似文献
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In this paper, we attempt to highlight the relevance of cutoff low systems (CoLs) to large-scale heavy precipitation events within the Alpine region which often lead to catastrophic flooding. The main results of this study are (1) a detailed climatology (1971–1999) of CoLs for the European region, (2) contribution of CoLs to extreme precipitation events in the European Alpine region, (3) identification of regions within the European Alps most affected by extreme precipitation caused by CoLs, and (4) identification of regions where presence of CoLs is related to extreme precipitation in the Alpine region. The findings of this paper suggest that CoLs have a significant correlation with extreme precipitation events and strongly influence the climate of the Alpine region. The total contribution of CoLs to large-scale heavy precipitation events ranges between 20 and 95 % and is most pronounced in the northern and eastern parts of the Alps. More than 80 % of the events occur in the summer season. The area around the Alps and West of Spain (over the Atlantic Ocean) is the most affected region. The location of the center of CoLs that affect the Alpine region most occur on the northern and southern sides of the Alpine ridge. 相似文献
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Yath Awan Yath 《GeoJournal》1991,25(1):19-26
Immigration into the three towns of Khartoum, Khartoum North and Ondurman has been a monopoly of Sudanese from other provinces of the north for many years. Even after the relaxation of movement between the different regions, few southerners ventured Khartoum. More than seven years ago, a second civil war broke out. Its consequences in the South have been a wide-spread devastation of both rural and urban areas, a progressive increase of war and famine related deaths and the upsetting of inter-ethnic harmony in the transitional zone as an echo of the political situation in the country. As a survival move, southern Sudanese fled from their towns and home villages in massive waves. Arriving in Khartoum, which was already congested with overstrained social services, they joined an existing body of impoverished population, which has settled in virtual shanty towns scattered throughout the greater metropolitan area. Disadvantages emerging from the economic exigences of their forced migration have been sustained within the general framework of government policy implementation as regards settlement in Khartoum with only an ambiguous reference to the distinctness of their ordeal. The result is that they become more disadvantaged then others. This paper examines the factors that are operating in the housing choice and residential location of Dinka ethnic group migrants using the example of Gereif West and Suq el Markazi. The result shows that the residential location is strongly affected by the response to an immediate objective situation, while the choice of tenure reflects the underlying function of the migrants' attitudes towards permanent stay in the town. 相似文献
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Abstract Illite crystallinity (IC) and illite b, lattice spacing were measured across the Cretaceous Shimanto Belt, Kii Peninsula, Southwest Japan. For the IC survey, 103 samples of argillaceous rocks were analyzed from the central area and the western area of the belt. Values of IC (Kubler Index) vary between 0.28 and 0.71 Δ°2θ and indicate diagenetic and anchizone metamorphism respectively. The IC distribution reveals two contrasting patterns of thermal maturity. The Hanazono Formation, exposed in the northern area of the belt, generally dips north, but IC values increase systematically from 0.28 Δ°2θ in the north to 0.54 Δ°2θ in the south and indicate an inverted thermal structure. Values in other formations vary widely in the southern area of the belt ranging between 0.45 and 0.71 Δ°2θ, but the values do not show any systematic change from north to south and on average remain almost constant. Illite bo , lattice spacing values for 56 samples vary between 9.006 and 9.041 Å corresponding to intermediate pressure conditions of the metamorphic facies. These values, combined with paleotemperatures estimated from IC, indicate paleogeothermal gradients of 22 and 31°C/km for the northern and southern areas of the belt, respectively. The inverted thermal structure of the Hanazono Formation, together with a lower paleogeothermal gradient, possibly is a result of the subduction of a relatively cold oceanic plate during the Late Cretaceous. The higher geothermal gradient could be a product of late thermal overprinting caused by the later subduction of a comparatively younger and hotter oceanic plate during the Eocene. 相似文献
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Spatio‐temporal distribution of actual evapotranspiration in the Indus Basin Irrigation System 
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下载免费PDF全文 Strategic planning of optimal water use requires an accurate assessment of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) to understand the environmental and hydrological processes of the world's largest contiguous irrigation networks, including the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) in Pakistan. The Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) has been used successfully for accurate estimations of ETa in different river basins throughout the world. In this study, we examined the application of SEBS using publically available remote sensing data to assess spatial variations in water consumption and to map water stress from daily to annual scales in the IBIS. Ground‐based ETa was calculated by the advection‐aridity method, from nine meteorological sites, and used to evaluate the intra‐annual seasonality in the hydrological year 2009–2010. In comparison with the advection‐aridity, SEBS computed daily ETa was slightly underestimated with a bias of ?0.15 mm day?1 during the kharif (wet; April–September) season, and it was overestimated with a bias of 0.23 mm day?1 in the rabi (dry; October–March) season. Monthly values of the ETa estimated by SEBS were significantly (P < 0.05) controlled by mean air temperature and rainfall, among other climatological variables (relative humidity, sunshine hours and wind speed). Because of the seasonal (kharif and rabi) differences in the water and energy budget in the huge canal command areas of the IBIS, ETa and rainfall were positively correlated in the kharif season and were negatively correlated during the rabi season. In addition, analysis of the evaporation process showed that mixed‐cropping and rice–wheat dominated areas had lower and higher water consumption rates, respectively, in comparison with other cropping systems in the basin. Basin areas under water stress were identified by means of spatial variations in the relative evapotranspiration, which had an average value of 0.59 and 0.42 during the kharif and the rabi seasons, respectively. The hydrological parameters used in this study provide useful information for understanding hydrological processes at different spatial and temporal scales. Results of this study further suggest that the SEBS is useful for evaluation of water resources in semi‐arid to arid regions over longer periods, if the data inputs are carefully handled. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Martin Suklitsch Andreas Gobiet Heimo Truhetz Nauman Khurshid Awan Holger Göttel Daniela Jacob 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(1-2):377-390
This study describes typical error ranges of high resolution regional climate models operated over complex orography and investigates the scale-dependence of these error ranges. The results are valid primarily for the European Alpine region, but to some extent they can also be transferred to other orographically complex regions of the world. We investigate the model errors by evaluating a set of 62 one-year hindcast experiments for the year 1999 with four different regional climate models. The analysis is conducted for the parameters mean sea level pressure, air temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) and precipitation (mean, frequency and intensity), both as an area average over the whole modeled domain (the “Greater Alpine Region”, GAR) and in six subregions. The subregional seasonal error ranges, defined as the interval between the 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile, lie between ?3.2 and +2.0 K for temperature and between ?2.0 and +3.1 mm/day (?45.7 and +94.7%) for precipitation, respectively. While the temperature error ranges are hardly broadened at smaller scales, the precipitation error ranges increase by 28%. These results demonstrate that high resolution RCMs are applicable in relatively small scale climate impact studies with a comparable quality as on well investigated larger scales as far as temperature is concerned. For precipitation, which is a much more demanding parameter, the quality is moderately degraded on smaller scales. 相似文献