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B.?GersoniusEmail author J.?Rijke R.?Ashley P.?Bloemen E.?Kelder C.?Zevenbergen 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(2):201-216
Many countries across the world are experiencing strict austerity measures due to the economic crisis. As a consequence, public financing for stand-alone adaptation to flooding and drought will become scarcer in the (near) future, and this hampers the pursuit of resilience (i.e. the ability to remain functioning under a range of hazard magnitudes). In such times, key challenges for adaptation are further complicated by weaker investment dynamics and an increased tendency to ‘work in silos’. These are: to minimise regret with respect to maladaptation, which results from over- or under-investment in water hazard management; to exploit the opportunities for mainstreaming adaptation to flooding and drought into other investment agendas; and to deliver multiple benefits for society and the economy, such as increased biodiversity, liveability and competitiveness. These common challenges drive the best way in which to adapt to uncertain climate and socio-economic changes. In the Netherlands, the Delta Programme has developed and applied a structured and well-defined approach (called Adaptive Delta Management) for including and acting upon uncertainty around these future changes. This approach allows for greater transparency to decision-makers and stakeholders, because it adheres to four specific steps for strategy development. This paper presents the current understanding of Adaptive Delta Management and an illustration of the approach for the management of flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht. It examines the added value and limitations of Adaptive Delta Management concerning its application in the context of the Delta Programme, with a specific emphasis on the lessons learned from Dordrecht. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - China is a country with severe water problems. In recent years, urban flooding has become even more frequent, pervasive and severe, threatening China’s development. To... 相似文献
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Gersonius B. Rijke J. Ashley R. Bloemen P. Kelder E. Zevenbergen C. 《Natural Hazards》2015,82(2):201-216
Many countries across the world are experiencing strict austerity measures due to the economic crisis. As a consequence, public financing for stand-alone adaptation to flooding and drought will become scarcer in the (near) future, and this hampers the pursuit of resilience (i.e. the ability to remain functioning under a range of hazard magnitudes). In such times, key challenges for adaptation are further complicated by weaker investment dynamics and an increased tendency to ‘work in silos’. These are: to minimise regret with respect to maladaptation, which results from over- or under-investment in water hazard management; to exploit the opportunities for mainstreaming adaptation to flooding and drought into other investment agendas; and to deliver multiple benefits for society and the economy, such as increased biodiversity, liveability and competitiveness. These common challenges drive the best way in which to adapt to uncertain climate and socio-economic changes. In the Netherlands, the Delta Programme has developed and applied a structured and well-defined approach (called Adaptive Delta Management) for including and acting upon uncertainty around these future changes. This approach allows for greater transparency to decision-makers and stakeholders, because it adheres to four specific steps for strategy development. This paper presents the current understanding of Adaptive Delta Management and an illustration of the approach for the management of flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht. It examines the added value and limitations of Adaptive Delta Management concerning its application in the context of the Delta Programme, with a specific emphasis on the lessons learned from Dordrecht.
相似文献4.
Jose Morales Alfred Stein Johannes Flacke Jaap Zevenbergen 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(7):1451-1474
ABSTRACT Spatial information of land values is fundamental for planners and policy makers. Individual appraisals are costly, explaining the need for predictive modelling. Recent work has investigated using Space Syntax to analyse urban access and explain land values. However, the spatial dependence of urban land markets has not been addressed in such studies. Further, the selection of meaningful variables is commonly conducted under non-spatialized modelling conditions. The objective of this paper is to construct a land value map using a geostatistical approach using Space Syntax and a spatialized variable selection. The methodology is applied in Guatemala City. We used an existing dataset of residential land value appraisals and accessibility metrics. Regression-kriging was used to conduct variable selection and derive a model for spatial prediction. The prediction accuracy is compared with a multivariate regression. The results show that a spatialized variable selection yields a more parsimonious model with higher prediction accuracy. New insights were found on how Space Syntax explains land value variability when also modelling the spatial dependence. Space Syntax can contribute with relevant spatialized information for predictive land value modelling purposes. Finally, the spatial modelling framework facilitates the production of spatial information of land values that is relevant for planning practice. 相似文献
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Landsat Thematic Mapper data over the Nile Valley and Delta were analyzed to assist in various phases of groundwater development in Egypt. Land surface features were identified and located in combination with other data stored in a Geographic Information System for input to the final hydrogeological map of this area. Simple vegetation indices were used to delineate the extent of vegetation cover and related to groundwater recharge. Supervised classification techniques were used to separate features such as sabkhas which are areas of high evaporative losses. Detection of upward groundwater seepage at the surface in the winter season was used to calibrate regional groundwater flow models. Possible future applications include estimation of evapotranspiration, determination of irrigation water needs, and improvement of the existing network of groundwater observation wells for water quality purposes. 相似文献
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Quantitative analysis of land surface topography 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
Land surface topography significantly affects the processes of runoff and erosion. A system which determines slope, aspect, and curvature in both the down-slope and across-slope directions is developed for an altitude matrix. Also, the upslope drainage area and maximum drainage distance are determined for every point within the altitude matrix. A FORTRAN 66 program performs the analysis. 相似文献
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Assela Pathirana Mohanasundar Radhakrishnan Richard Ashley Nguyen Hong Quan Chris Zevenbergen 《Climatic change》2018,149(1):57-74
Adaptation gaps are shortcomings of a system responding to climate change, whereas adaptation deficits are shortcomings in providing services. These two drivers for adaptation are often in conflict in many secondary cities in the global south (SCGS). It is possible to align these seemingly conflicting drivers into a productive unity, a conceptual alignment, which is the first step in achieving harmony while implementing adaptation actions. This paper focuses on the practical aspects of implementing aligned adaptation action that leads to improvements in liveability, sustainability, and resilience of SCGS. At an abstract level, the nature of the adaptation problem is similar to the complex problems identified in various domains, such as software development, manufacturing, and supply chain management. The widely accepted “agile principles”—used in the above domains—is the basis for developing a set of twelve principles for urban adaptation, which are synthesized from numerous recent studies that have implicitly proposed or applied most of these principles to climate change adaptation in urban settings. These principles lead to four essential objectives appertaining to the process of sustainable urban adaptation. The urban agile principles are used to analyze the current state of adaptation of Can Tho City in Vietnam and to ascertain the agile ways of addressing its adaptation challenges. Analysis of the outcomes shows that harmonized approaches can simultaneously address both adaptation deficits and gaps. 相似文献
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Chris Zevenbergen Sebastiaan van Herk Jeroen Rijke Pavel Kabat Pieter Bloemen Richard Ashley Andrew Speers Berry Gersonius William Veerbeek 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1217-1225
There is a growing international recognition that flood risk management in optima forma should be a programmed and flexible process of continuously improving management practices by active learning about the outcome of earlier and ongoing interventions and drivers of change. In the Netherlands, such a long-term, adaptive flood risk management strategy is now being implemented. This so-called second Delta Programme aims to identify and exploit opportunities and capitalize on short-term benefits and opportunistic synergies that arise from change and will require adaptive policymaking. It also requires the financial and institutional means to operate in a long-lasting way, which at the very least, means engaging stakeholders, gathering and disseminating results and adaptation of future plans. Transferring the Dutch approach to other countries is a major challenge that calls for fundamental changes in institutional arrangements at various levels and thus requires customized programmes for strategic institutional change. Recent examples of transfer will provide important lessons of how institutional change can successfully occur and will contribute insights for other countries that attempting to reform their flood risk management strategies. Continuous monitoring and evaluation and sharing international experiences will become crucial for the effective delivery and wider uptake of these new strategies around the globe. 相似文献
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Climate change uncertainty: building flexibility into water and flood risk infrastructure 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Berry Gersonius Richard Ashley Assela Pathirana Chris Zevenbergen 《Climatic change》2013,116(2):411-423
Infrastructure for water, urban drainage and flood protection has a typical lifetime of 30–200 years and its continuing performance is very sensitive to climate change. Investment decisions for such systems are frequently based on state-of-the-art impact assessments using a specified climate change scenario in order to identify a singular optimal adaptive strategy. In a non-stationary world, however, it is risky and/or uneconomic to plan for just one climate change scenario as an average or best estimate, as is done with the use of the Predict-Then-Adapt method. We argue that responsible adaptation requires an alternative method that effectively allows for the lack of knowledge about future climate change by adopting a managed/adaptive strategy. The managed/adaptive strategy confers the ability, derived from built-in flexibility, to adjust to future uncertainties as they unfold. This will restrict the effect of erroneous decisions and help avoid maladaptation. Real In Options (RIO) analysis can facilitate the development of an optimal managed/adaptive strategy to climate change. Here, we show the economic benefits of adopting a managed/adaptive strategy and building in flexibility, using RIO analysis applied for the first time to urban drainage infrastructure. 相似文献
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