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1.
Muryshev K. E. Eliseev A. V. Denisov S. N. Mokhov I. I. Arzhanov M. M. Timazhev A. V. 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2019,55(3):235-241
Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The phase shift between changes in the global surface temperature Tg and atmospheric CO2 content $${{q}_{{{\text{C}}{{{\text{O}}}_{2}}}}}$$ has been... 相似文献
2.
Changes in climatic characteristics of Northern Hemisphere extratropical land in the 21st century: Assessments with the IAP RAS climate model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A. V. Eliseev M. M. Arzhanov P. F. Demchenko I. I. Mokhov 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2009,45(3):271-283
Assessments of future changes in the climate of Northern Hemisphere extratropical land regions have been made with the IAP RAS climate model (CM) of intermediate complexity (which includes a detailed scheme of thermo- and hydrophysical soil processes) under prescribed greenhouse and sulfate anthropogenic forcing from observational data for the 19th and 20th centuries and from the SRES B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios for the 21st century. The annual mean warming of the extratropical land surface has been found to reach 2–5 K (3–10 K) by the middle (end) of the 21st century relative to 1961–1990, depending on the anthropogenic forcing scenario, with larger values in North America than in Europe. Winter warming is greater than summer warming. This is expressed in a decrease of 1–4 K (or more) in the amplitude of the annual harmonic of soil-surface temperature in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia and North America. The total area extent of perennially frozen ground S p in the IAP RAS CM changes only slightly until the late 20th century, reaching about 21 million km2, and then decreases to 11–12 million km2 in 2036–2065 and 4–8 million km2 in 2071–2100. In the late 21st century, near-surface permafrost is expected to remain only in Tibet and in central and eastern Siberia. In these regions, depths of seasonal thaw exceed 1 m (2 m) under the SRES B1 (A1B or A2) scenario. The total land area with seasonal thaw or cooling is expected to decrease from the current value of 54–55 million km2 to 38–42 in the late 21st century. The area of Northern Hemisphere snow cover in February is also reduced from the current value of 45–49 million km2 to 31–37 million km2. For the basins of major rivers in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, runoff is expected to increase in central and eastern Siberia. In European Russia and in southern Europe, runoff is projected to decrease. In western Siberia (the Ob watershed), runoff would increase under the SRES A1B and A2 scenarios until the 2050s–2070s, then it would decrease to values close to present-day ones; under the anthropogenic forcing scenario SRES B1, the increase in runoff will continue up to the late 21st century. Total runoff from Eurasian rivers into the Arctic Ocean in the IAP RAS CM in the 21st century will increase by 8–9% depending on the scenario. Runoff from the North American rivers into the Arctic Ocean has not changed much throughout numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM. 相似文献
3.
Alexey V. Eliseev Pavel F. Demchenko Maxim M. Arzhanov Igor I. Mokhov 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1203-1215
Estimates of changes in near-surface permafrost (NSP) area S p relative to change in globally averaged surface air temperature T g are made by using the global climate model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS (IAP RAS CM). For ensemble of runs forced by scenarios constructed as return-to-preindustrial continuations of the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios family, a possibility of transient hysteresis in dependence of S p versus T g is exhibited: in some temperature range which depends on imposed scenario of external forcing, NSP area is larger, at the same global mean surface air temperature, in a warming climate than in a cooling climate. This hysteresis is visible more clearly for scenarios with higher concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in comparison to those in which this concentration is lower. Hysteresis details are not sensitive to the type of the prescribed continuation path which is used to return the climate to the preindustrial state. The multiple-valued dependence of S p on T g arises due to dependence of soil state in the regions of extra-tropical wetlands and near the contemporary NSP boundaries on sign of external climatic forcing. To study the dependence of permafrost hysteresis on amplitude and temporal scale of external forcing, additional model runs are performed. These runs are forced by idealised scenarios of atmospheric CO2 content varying, depending on run, with periods from 100 to 1,000 year and with different amplitudes. It is shown that the above-mentioned hysteresis is related to the impact of phase transitions of soil water on apparent inertia of the system as well as to the impact of soil state on atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation transfer in the atmosphere. 相似文献
4.
M. M. Arzhanov A. V. Eliseev V. V. Klimenko I. I. Mokhov A. G. Tereshin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2012,48(6):573-584
Possible changes in the climate characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere in the 21st century are estimated using a climate model (developed at the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (OIAP), Russian Academy of Sciences) under different scenarios of variations in the atmospheric contents of greenhouse gases and aerosols, including those formed at the OIAP on the basis of SRES emission scenarios (group I) and scenarios (group II) developed at the Moscow Power Engineering Institute (MPEI). Over the 21st century, the global annual mean warming at the surface amounts to 1.2?C2.6°C under scenarios I and 0.9?C1.2°C under scenarios II. For all scenarios II, starting from the 2060s, a decrease is observed in the rate of increase in the global mean annual near-surface air temperature. The spatial structures of variations in the mean annual near-surface air temperature in the 21st century, which have been obtained for both groups of scenarios (with smaller absolute values for scenarios II), are similar. Under scenarios I, within the extratropical latitudes, the mean annual surface air temperature increases by 3?C7°C in North America and by 3?C5°C in Eurasia in the 21st century. Under scenarios II, the near-surface air temperature increases by 2?C4°C in North America and by 2?C3°C in Eurasia. An increase in the total amount of precipitation by the end of the 21st century is noted for both groups of scenarios; the most significant increase in the precipitation rate is noted for the land of the Northern Hemisphere. By the late 21st century, the total area of the near-surface permafrost soils of the land of the Northern Hemisphere decreases to 3.9?C9.5 106 km2 for scenarios I and 9.7?C11.0 × 106 km2 for scenarios II. The decrease in the area of near-surface permafrost soils by 2091?C2100 (as compared to 2001?C2010) amounts to approximately 65% for scenarios I and 40% for scenarios II. By the end of the 21st century, in regions of eastern Siberia, in which near-surface permafrost soils are preserved, the characteristic depths of seasonal thawing amount to 0.5?C2.5 m for scenarios I and 1?C2 m for scenarios II. In western Siberia, the depth of seasonal thawing amounts to 1?C2 m under both scenarios I and II. 相似文献
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6.
This paper considers the impact of current climatic change on the permafrost strength and stability of relic gas hydrates in the Yamal Peninsula based on the results of permafrost thermal regime simulations and model estimates of climate change within last 100 ka. 相似文献
7.
A. V. Eliseev P. F. Demchenko M. M. Arzhanov I. I. Mokhov 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2012,444(2):725-728
8.
Simulation of thermal and hydrological regimes of Siberian river watersheds under permafrost conditions from reanalysis data 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Arzhanov M. M. Eliseev A. V. Demchenko P. F. Mokhov I. I. Khon V. Ch. 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2008,44(1):83-89
A one-dimensional dynamic model of heat and moisture transfer in the soil has been developed. The use of the ERA-40 reanalysis as input data makes it possible to compute characteristics of the soil thermal and hydrological regimes, including watershed runoff, from specified climatic characteristics of the atmosphere. Results are presented of numerical experiments on a comparison of the model estimates of the depths of seasonal thawing with observations at several Siberian stations. For the latter half of the 20th century, the depths of seasonal thawing are mapped and runoff from watersheds of the largest Siberian rivers is computed. The model reproduces observed runoff variations. For the Ob basin, the model-derived runoff estimates agree well with observational data if peat deposits in the upper 2-m layer are taken into account. 相似文献
9.
Estimates of possible climate changes and cryolithozone dynamics in the 21st century over the Northern Hemisphere land are obtained using the IAP RAS global climate model under the RCP scenarios. Annual mean warming over the northern extratropical land during the 21st century amounts to 1.2–5.3°C depending on the scenario. The area of the snow cover in February amounting currently to 46 million km2 decreases to 33–42 million km2 in the late 21st century. According to model estimates, the near-surface permafrost in the late 21st century persists in northern regions of West Siberia, in Transbaikalia, and Tibet even under the most aggressive RCP 8.5 scenario; under more moderate scenarios (RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5, and RCP 2.6), it remains in East Siberia and in some high-latitude regions of North America. The total near-surface permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere in the current century decreases by 5.3–12.8 million km2 depending on the scenario. The soil subsidence due to permafrost thawing in Central Siberia, Cisbaikalia, and North America can reach 0.5–0.8 m by the late 21st century. 相似文献
10.
We present the results of analysis of numerical calculations of the thermal state of permafrost grounds at different depths using a model of heat and moisture transport in the ground developed at the Oboukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS). For high-latitude regions of Russia, the model-estimated temperature trends in grounds (around 0.3°C/10 years at a depth of 3 m) are quite consistent with empirical estimates for the past few decades. 相似文献