排序方式： 共有5条查询结果，搜索用时 265 毫秒
1
1.
Philipp Gloning Nicole Estrella Annette Menzel 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(3-4):683-695
The potential impacts of climate change on potatoes cropping in the Peruvian highlands (Altiplano) is assessed using climate projections for 2071–2100, obtained from the HadRM3P regional atmospheric model of the Hadley Centre. The atmospheric model is run under two different special report on emission scenarios: high CO2 concentration (A2) and moderate CO2 concentration (B2) for four locations situated in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca. The two main varieties of potato cultivated in the area are studied: the Andean potato (Solanum tuberosum) and the bitter potato (Solanum juzepczukii). A simple process-oriented model is used to quantify the climatic impacts on crops cycles and yields by combining the effects of temperature on phenology, of radiation and CO2 on maximum yield and of water balance on yield deficit. In future climates, air temperature systematically increases, precipitation tends to increase at the beginning of the rainy season and slightly decreases during the rest of the season. The direct effects of these climatic changes are earlier planting dates, less planting failures and shorter crop cycles in all the four locations and for both scenarios. Consequently, the harvesting dates occur systematically earlier: roughly in January for the Andean potato instead of March in the current situation and in February for the bitter potato instead of April. Overall, yield deficits will be higher under climate change than in the current climate. There will be a strong negative impact on yields for S. tuberosum (stronger under A2 scenario than under B2); the impact on S. juzepczukii yields, however, appears to be relatively mixed and not so negative. 相似文献
2.
Michael J. Hollaway Keith J. Beven Clare Mc W. H. Benskin Adrian L. Collins Robert Evans Peter D. Falloon Kirsty J. Forber Kevin M. Hiscock Ron Kahana Christopher J. A. Macleod Mary C. Ockenden Martha L. Villamizar Catherine Wearing Paul J. A. Withers Jian G. Zhou Nicholas J. Barber Philip M. Haygarth 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2779-2787
River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site. 相似文献
3.
Estrella Villamizar María C. Díaz Klaus Rützler Renato De Nóbrega 《Marine Ecology》2014,35(4):425-435
Changes in the relative abundance of benthic groups on the barrier fore reef at Carrie Bow Cay, Belize, point to a significant reduction of corals and an expansion of the sponge community in 1995–2009. Fifty‐one species are now present in the four geomorphological zones of this reef: the low‐relief spur‐and‐groove zone, the inner reef slope, the outer ridge, and the fore‐reef slope (to a depth of 30 m). Five species are new additions to the sponge fauna reported for Belize, and six species account for 42.6% of the total assemblage: Niphates erecta (9.60%), Aiolochroia crassa (8.8%), Niphates digitalis (6.9%), Callyspongia plicifera (6.63%), Aplysina archeri (5.37%) and Xestospongia muta (5.37%). Species richness, average density, diversity and evenness indexes are statistically similar in these four zones but some species appear to be more dominant in certain areas. In the same 30 years, coral cover has decreased by more than 90%, while the octocoral cover has greatly increased (by as much as 10‐fold in the low‐relief spur‐and‐groove zone). Thus the Carrie Bow fore reef appears to be undergoing a transition from coral dominance in the late 1970s to algae dominance today, with other benthic groups such as sponges and octocorals showing signs of gradual recovery. 相似文献
4.
Mariela A. Yevenes Estrella Bello Sandra Sanhueza-Guevara Laura Farías 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(3):807-821
Fjords and estuaries exchange large amounts of solutes, gases, and particulates between fluvial and marine systems. These exchanges and their relative distributions of compounds/particles are partially controlled by stratification and water circulation. The spatial and vertical distributions of N2O, an important greenhouse gas, along with other oceanographic variables, are analyzed from the Reloncaví estuary (RE) (~41° 30′ S) to the gulf of Corcovado in the interior sea of Chiloé (43° 45′ S) during the austral winter. Freshwater runoff into the estuary regulated salinity and stratification of the water column, clearly demarking the surface (<5 m depth) and subsurface layer (>5 m depth) and also separating estuarine and marine influenced areas. N2O levels varied between 8.3 and 21 nM (corresponding to 80 and 170 % saturation, respectively), being significantly lower (11.8 ± 1.70) at the surface than in subsurface waters in the Reloncaví estuary (14.5 ± 1.73). Low salinity and NO3 ?, NO2 ?, and PO4 3? levels, as well as high Si(OH)4 values were associated with low surface N2O levels. Remarkably, an accumulation of N2O was observed in the subsurface waters of the Reloncaví sound, associated with a relatively high consumption of O2. The sound is exposed to increasing anthropogenic impacts from aquaculture and urban discharge, occurring simultaneously with an internal recirculation, which leads to potential signals of early eutrophication. In contrast, within the interior sea of Chiloé (ISC), most of water column was quasi homohaline and occupied by modified subantarctic water (MSAAW), which was relatively rich in N2O (12.6 ± 2.36 nM) and NO3 ? (18.3 ± 1.63 μM). The relationship between salinity, nutrients, and N2O revealed that water from the open ocean, entering into ISC (the Gulf of Corcovado) through the Guafo mouth, was the main source of N2O (up to 21 nM), as it gradually mixed with estuarine water. In addition, significant relationships between N2O excess vs. AOU and N2O excess vs. NO3 ? suggest that part of N2O is also produced by nitrification. Our results show that the estuarine and marine waters can act as light source or sink of N2O to the atmosphere (air–sea N2O fluxes ranged from ?1.57 to 5.75 μmol m?2 day?1), respectively; influxes seem to be associated to brackish water depleted in N2O that also caused a strong stratification, creating a barrier to gas exchange. 相似文献
5.
Agua Amarga coastal aquifer in southern Spain has been the subject of chemical and physical measurements since May 2008 in order to monitor the potential effects of water withdrawal for the Alicante desalination plants on the salt marsh linked to the aquifer. Electrical conductivity contour maps and depth profiles, piezometric-head contour maps, hydrochemical analyses, isotopic characterizations and temperature depth profiles show not only the saltwater intrusion caused by water abstraction, but also the presence of a pronounced convective density-driven flow below the salt marsh; this flow was a consequence of saltwork activity in the early 1900s which generated saline groundwater contamination. The influence of a seawater recharge programme, carried out over the salt marsh in 2009–2010, on the diminishing groundwater salinity and the recovery of groundwater levels is also studied. Based on collected field data, the project provides a deeper understanding of how these successive anthropogenic interventions have modified flow and mixing processes in Agua Amarga aquifer. 相似文献
1