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We propose a methodology, called multilevel local–global (MLLG) upscaling, for generating accurate upscaled models of permeabilities or transmissibilities for flow simulation on adapted grids in heterogeneous subsurface formations. The method generates an initial adapted grid based on the given fine-scale reservoir heterogeneity and potential flow paths. It then applies local–global (LG) upscaling for permeability or transmissibility [7], along with adaptivity, in an iterative manner. In each iteration of MLLG, the grid can be adapted where needed to reduce flow solver and upscaling errors. The adaptivity is controlled with a flow-based indicator. The iterative process is continued until consistency between the global solve on the adapted grid and the local solves is obtained. While each application of LG upscaling is also an iterative process, this inner iteration generally takes only one or two iterations to converge. Furthermore, the number of outer iterations is bounded above, and hence, the computational costs of this approach are low. We design a new flow-based weighting of transmissibility values in LG upscaling that significantly improves the accuracy of LG and MLLG over traditional local transmissibility calculations. For highly heterogeneous (e.g., channelized) systems, the integration of grid adaptivity and LG upscaling is shown to consistently provide more accurate coarse-scale models for global flow, relative to reference fine-scale results, than do existing upscaling techniques applied to uniform grids of similar densities. Another attractive property of the integration of upscaling and adaptivity is that process dependency is strongly reduced, that is, the approach computes accurate global flow results also for flows driven by boundary conditions different from the generic boundary conditions used to compute the upscaled parameters. The method is demonstrated on Cartesian cell-based anisotropic refinement (CCAR) grids, but it can be applied to other adaptation strategies for structured grids and extended to unstructured grids.  相似文献   
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We propose a new single-phase local upscaling method that uses spatially varying multipoint transmissibility calculations. The method is demonstrated on two-dimensional Cartesian and adaptive Cartesian grids. For each cell face in the coarse upscaled grid, we create a local fine grid region surrounding the face on which we solve two generic local flow problems. The multipoint stencils used to calculate the fluxes across coarse grid cell faces involve the six neighboring pressure values. They are required to honor the two generic flow problems. The remaining degrees of freedom are used to maximize compactness and to ensure that the flux approximation is as close as possible to being two-point. The resulting multipoint flux approximations are spatially varying (a subset of the six neighbors is adaptively chosen) and reduce to two-point expressions in cases without full-tensor anisotropy. Numerical tests show that the method significantly improves upscaling accuracy as compared to commonly used local methods and also compares favorably with a local–global upscaling method.  相似文献   
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The present paper describes the analysis and modeling of the South China Sea (SCS) temperature cycle on a seasonal scale. It investigates the possibility to model this cycle in a consistent way while not taking into account tidal forcing and associated tidal mixing and exchange. This is motivated by the possibility to significantly increase the model’s computational efficiency when neglecting tides. The goal is to develop a flexible and efficient tool for seasonal scenario analysis and to generate transport boundary forcing for local models. Given the significant spatial extent of the SCS basin and the focus on seasonal time scales, synoptic remote sensing is an ideal tool in this analysis. Remote sensing is used to assess the seasonal temperature cycle to identify the relevant driving forces and is a valuable source of input data for modeling. Model simulations are performed using a three-dimensional baroclinic-reduced depth model, driven by monthly mean sea surface anomaly boundary forcing, monthly mean lateral temperature, and salinity forcing obtained from the World Ocean Atlas 2001 climatology, six hourly meteorological forcing from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 dataset, and remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) data. A sensitivity analysis of model forcing and coefficients is performed. The model results are quantitatively assessed against climatological temperature profiles using a goodness-of-fit norm. In the deep regions, the model results are in good agreement with this validation data. In the shallow regions, discrepancies are found. To improve the agreement there, we apply a SST nudging method at the free water surface. This considerably improves the model’s vertical temperature representation in the shallow regions. Based on the model validation against climatological in situ and SST data, we conclude that the seasonal temperature cycle for the deep SCS basin can be represented to a good degree. For shallow regions, the absence of tidal mixing and exchange has a clear impact on the model’s temperature representation. This effect on the large-scale temperature cycle can be compensated to a good degree by SST nudging for diagnostic applications.  相似文献   
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In real-time operational coastal forecasting systems for the northwest European shelf, the representation accuracy of tide–surge models commonly suffers from insufficiently accurate tidal representation, especially in shallow near-shore areas with complex bathymetry and geometry. Therefore, in conventional operational systems, the surge component from numerical model simulations is used, while the harmonically predicted tide, accurately known from harmonic analysis of tide gauge measurements, is added to forecast the full water-level signal at tide gauge locations. Although there are errors associated with this so-called astronomical correction (e.g. because of the assumption of linearity of tide and surge), for current operational models, astronomical correction has nevertheless been shown to increase the representation accuracy of the full water-level signal. The simulated modulation of the surge through non-linear tide–surge interaction is affected by the poor representation of the tide signal in the tide–surge model, which astronomical correction does not improve. Furthermore, astronomical correction can only be applied to locations where the astronomic tide is known through a harmonic analysis of in situ measurements at tide gauge stations. This provides a strong motivation to improve both tide and surge representation of numerical models used in forecasting. In the present paper, we propose a new generation tide–surge model for the northwest European Shelf (DCSMv6). This is the first application on this scale in which the tidal representation is such that astronomical correction no longer improves the accuracy of the total water-level representation and where, consequently, the straightforward direct model forecasting of total water levels is better. The methodology applied to improve both tide and surge representation of the model is discussed, with emphasis on the use of satellite altimeter data and data assimilation techniques for reducing parameter uncertainty. Historic DCSMv6 model simulations are compared against shelf wide observations for a full calendar year. For a selection of stations, these results are compared to those with astronomical correction, which confirms that the tide representation in coastal regions has sufficient accuracy, and that forecasting total water levels directly yields superior results.  相似文献   
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Hydrodynamic models are commonly used for predicting water levels and currents in the deep ocean, ocean margins and shelf seas. Their accuracy is typically limited by factors, such as the complexity of the coastal geometry and bathymetry, plus the uncertainty in the flow forcing (deep ocean tide, winds and pressure). In Southeast Asian waters with its strongly hydrodynamic characteristics, the lack of detailed marine observations (bathymetry and tides) for model validation is an additional factor limiting flow representation. This paper deals with the application of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based data assimilation with the purpose of improving the deterministic model forecast. The efficacy of the EnKF is analysed via a twin experiment conducted with the 2D barotropic Singapore regional model. The results show that the applied data assimilation can improve the forecasts significantly in this complex flow regime.  相似文献   
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