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1.
An empirical kinematic method developed by Hakamada and Akasofu (1982) is calibrated on the basis of a one-dimensional MHD solution. The calibrated results are used to simulate the stream-stream interaction and the background corotating structure in a simple situation and also during 22 November–6 December 1977. The solar wind disturbances caused by solar activities during this period are then introduced into the above background stream in simulating the heliospheric disturbance event which was observed by an aligned set of spacecraft at distances between 0.6 and 1.6 a.u. The observations and the simulated results are satisfactory, and a little more refinement in the simulation could reconstruct reasonably well the data by filling the data gaps in the solar wind speed, the density and the IMF magnitude. 相似文献
2.
Dryer M. Fry C.D. Sun W. Deehr C. Smith Z. Akasofu S.-I. Andrews M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284
Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues
to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time
prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day')
flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as
part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and
ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions
of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third
model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT,
15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks
through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display
them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported
flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15
July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as
an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to
describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the
asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch
represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and
simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier
as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward
space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain.
Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867 相似文献
3.
S.I. Akasofu 《Planetary and Space Science》1985,33(1):81-87
We examine time variations of the total magnetospheric output UT and the two geomagnetic indices AE and Dst during the magnetospheric storm of 31 December 1967–1 January 1968. A unique feature of this particular storm is that the solar-wind magnetosphere dynamo power ε was nearly constant for about 24 h by maintaining a high value of ～1019 erg s?1. It is found that UT was also nearly constant during that period, indicating that the magnetosphere is primarily a directly driven system. However, during an early epoch of the storm, the electrojet intensity levelled off, while the ring current began to grow during the same epoch. Subsequently, there occurred a sudden surge of the electrojet intensity, while the growth of the ring-current levelled off. Later variations of both the AE and Dst indices were very complex. After the surge, the AE index continued to decline and became as low as ~250 nT during the maximum epoch of this major storm (when the Dst decrease attained the maximum values). This trend can also be seen in many other major storms, but is often masked by changes of ε. One possible cause for such features for ε ? 1019erg/s?1 is that the neutral wind is generated by the motion in the lower ionosphere, reducing the electrojet intensity and enhancing the ring-current particle-injection rate. 相似文献
4.
The accuracy of the AE index as a measure of the joule heat production rate is examined for a typical substorm event on 18 March 1978 by estimating the global joule heat production rate, as a function of time, using data obtained from the IMS six meridian chains. In spite of the fact that the AE index had had an initial slow growth which was followed by a rapid growth, the joule heat production rate attained a high level during the slow growth and thus their variations were considerably different from those of the AE index. Therefore, although the AE index is statistically linearly related to the global joule heat production rate, one should be cautious in assuming that details of time variations of the AE index during individual events represent those of the joule heat production rate. 相似文献
5.
The three-dimensional geometry of the heliospheric current sheet seen from fixed points in interplanetary space is constructed for idealized (sinusoidal) magnetic neutral lines (equators) and for an observed magnetic equator on the basis of the “kinematic method” developed by Hakamada and Akasofu (1982). The cross-sections of the wavy current sheet at distances 1, 2 and 5 a.u. are also constructed for the idealized magnetic neutral lines. 相似文献
6.
During major geomagnetic storms, the interplanetary magnetic field angle φ (phi) changes often abruptly, either from 135° to 315° or 315° to 135°, suggesting that the heliospheric current sheet is pushed upward or downward by disturbed solar wind. The distortion of the heliospheric current sheet by three successive solar flares is simulated to show that such a flapping motion can occur. 相似文献
7.
It is proposed that the solar flare phenomenon can be understood as a manifestation of the electrodynamic coupling process of the photosphere-chromosphere-corona system as a whole. The system is coupled by electric currents, flowing along (both upward and downward) and across the magnetic field lines, powered by the dynamo process driven by the neutral wind in the photosphere and the lower chromosphere. A self-consistent formulation of the proposed coupling system is given. It is shown in particular that the coupling system can generate and dissipate the power of 1029 erg s#X2212;1 and the total energy of 1032 erg during a typical life time (103 s) of solar flares. The energy consumptions include Joule heat production, acceleration of current-carrying particles along field lines, magnetic energy storage and kinetic energy of plasma convection. The particle acceleration arises from the development of field-aligned potential drops of 10–150 kV due to the loss-cone constriction effect along the upward field-aligned currents, causing optical, X-ray and radio emissions. The total number of precipitating electrons during a flare is shown to be of order 1037–1038. 相似文献
8.
S.-I. Akasofu 《Planetary and Space Science》1979,27(4):425-431
It is shown that the interplanetary quantity ε(t), obtained by Perreault and Akasofu (1978), for intense geomagnetic storms, also correlates well with individual magnetospheric substonns. This quantity is given by , where V and B denote the solar wind speed and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), respectively, and θ denotes the polar angle of the IMF; lo is a constant ? 7 Earth radii. The AE index is used in this correlation study. The correlation is good enough to predict both the occurrence and intensity of magnetospheric substonns observed in the auroral zone, by monitoring the quantity ε(t) upstream of the solar wind. 相似文献
9.
A one-dimensional model for thinning of the plasma sheet is developed on the basis of launching a fast mode MHD rarefaction wave propagating in the tailward direction along the plasma sheet. Behind the rarefaction wave the pressure is reduced, leading to thinning of the plasma sheet and also to an Earthward plasma flow with a speed on the order of the sound speed a0. The plasma sheet thickness is reduced by a factor of 2 if an Earthward plasma flow speed of 0.8a0 is induced. The predictions of the model are in reasonable agreement with observations. 相似文献
10.
It is shown that the dependence of the variations of vertical component of the polar cap magnetic field on the sector structure (actually, the azimuthal or Y component) of the interplanetary magnetic field as first discovered by Svalgaard (1968) and Mansurov (1969) extends to variations as brief as 1 hr or even less. The relation between sector structure dependent variations and substorm fields as indicated by the southward-directed component of the interplanetary magnetic field is investigated by comparing brief variations over selected intervals of time. The independence of the variations of the polar cap vertical and horizontal components suggests that there are at least two different current systems which produce brief variations in the polar cap. One of the current systems is related to the substonn field; the other is strongly seasonally dependent and is confined to the dayside sector of the Earth. 相似文献