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1.
The recent 2009 solar-minimum period was characterized by a record-setting high Galactic cosmic-ray flux observed at Earth. This, along with the unexpected low heliospheric magnetic-field magnitude, caused this period to be characterized as unusual compared with previous minimum epochs. In this work, selected solar-activity proxies and corresponding cosmic-ray observations for the past five solar cycles are compared with each other, and we identify those that showed unusual behaviour during the 2009 solar-minimum modulation period. Using a state-of-the-art numerical-modulation model, the proton-intensity spectra for the past solar minima are reproduced to establish which of the transport processes might be considered the main cause of this unusually high cosmic-ray flux. It is found that diffusion was more prominent during 2009 so that drift effects on the modulation of cosmic rays in the heliosphere were less evident than during previous solar-polarity epochs. However, particle drifts still occurred and because of these drift effects, the proton spectrum is predicted to be even higher during the coming A>0 solar-minimum period. 相似文献
2.
The time-dependent modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere is studied by computing intensities using a time-dependent modulation model. By introducing recent theoretical advances in the transport coefficients in the model, computed intensities are compared with Voyager 1, International Monitoring Platform (IMP) 8, and Ulysses proton observations in search of compatibility. The effect of different modulation parameters on computed intensities is also illustrated. It is shown that this approach produces, on a global scale, realistic cosmic-ray proton intensities along the Voyager 1 spacecraft trajectory and at Earth up to ≈?2004, whereafter the computed intensities recover much more slowly towards solar minimum than observed in the inner heliosphere. A modified time dependence in the diffusion coefficients is proposed to improve compatibility with the observations at Earth after ≈?2004. This modified time dependence led to an improved compatibility between computed intensities and the observations along the Voyager 1 trajectory and at Earth even after ≈?2004. An interesting result is that the cosmic-ray modulation during the current polarity cycle is not determined only by changes in the drift coefficient and tilt angle of the wavy current sheet, but is also largely dependent on changes in the diffusion coefficients. 相似文献
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4.
Marius S. Potgieter 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,230(1-2):393-403
The modulation of cosmic rays (CRs) in the heliosphere is a dynamic and therefore a highly time-dependent process. Numerical models with only a time-dependent neutral sheet prove to be successful when moderate to low solar activity occurs but fail to describe large and discrete steps in modulated CRs when solar activity is high. To explain this feature of heliospheric modulation, the concept of global merged interaction regions (GMIRs) is required. The combination of gradient, curvature and neutral sheet drifts with these GMIRs has so far been the most successful approach in explaining the 11-year and 22-year cycles in the long-term modulation of CRs. 相似文献
5.
False Bay, the biggest bay in South Africa, has to accommodate various demands in terms of recreation, naval activities and fisheries while it is lately also exposed to increased pollution. To determine the currents at the entrance to the Bay and thus obtain insight into the dynamics of the region, the flushing rate of the Bay and other aspects of the circulation, a number of current meters were deployed in the lower half of the water column at the entrance during the austral summer of 1986/1987. The results of these measurements, augmented and supported by temperature-salinity sections and meteorologic measurements in the vicinity, are discussed and compared with historical observations of the currents and water properties in the Bay. 相似文献
6.
A full three-dimensional, numerical model is used to study the modulation of Jovian and Galactic electrons from 1 MeV to 50 GeV, and from the Earth into the heliosheath. For this purpose the very local interstellar spectrum and the Jovian electron source spectrum are revisited. It is possible to compute the former with confidence at kinetic energies \(E < 50~\mbox{MeV}\) since Voyager 1 crossed the heliopause in 2012 at \(\sim 122~\mbox{AU}\), measuring Galactic electrons at these energies. Modeling results are compared with Voyager 1 observations in the outer heliosphere, including the heliosheath, as well as observations at or near the Earth from the ISSE3 mission, and in particular the solar minimum spectrum from the PAMELA space mission for 2009, also including data from Ulysses for 1991 and 1992, and observations above 1 MeV from SOHO/EPHIN. Making use of the observations at or near the Earth and the two newly derived input functions for the Jovian and Galactic electrons respectively, the energy range over which the Jovian electrons dominate the Galactic electrons is determined so that the intensity of Galactic electrons at Earth below 100 MeV is calculated. The differential intensity for the Galactic electrons at Earth for \(E = 1~\mbox{MeV}\) is \(\sim 4\) electrons \(\mbox{m}^{-2}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\,\mbox{sr}^{-1}\,\mbox{MeV}^{-1}\), whereas for Jovian electrons it is \(\sim 350\) electrons \(\mbox{m}^{-2}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\,\mbox{sr}^{-1}\,\mbox{MeV}^{-1}\). At \(E = 30~\mbox{MeV}\) the two intensities are the same; above this energy the Jovian electron intensity quickly subsides so that the Galactic intensity completely dominates. At 6 MeV, in the equatorial plane the Jovian electrons dominate but beyond \(\sim 15~\mbox{AU}\) the Galactic intensity begins to exceed the Jovian intensity significantly. 相似文献
7.
The propagation and modulation of electrons in the heliosphere play an important part in improving our understanding and assessment of the modulation processes. A full three-dimensional numerical model is used to study the modulation of galactic electrons, from Earth into the inner heliosheath, over an energy range from 10 MeV to 30 GeV. The modeling is compared with observations of 6–14 MeV electrons from Voyager 1 and observations at Earth from the PAMELA mission. Computed spectra are shown at different spatial positions. Based on comparison with Voyager 1 observations, a new local interstellar electron spectrum is calculated. We find that it consists of two power-laws: In terms of kinetic energy E, the results give E ?1.5 below ～500 MeV and E ?3.15 at higher energies. Radial intensity profiles are computed also for 12 MeV electrons, including a Jovian source, and compared to the 6–14 MeV observations from Voyager 1. Since the Jovian and galactic electrons can be separated in the model, we calculate the intensity of galactic electrons below 100 MeV at Earth. The highest possible differential flux of galactic electrons at Earth with E=12 MeV is found to have a value of 2.5×10?1 electrons m?2?s?1?sr?1?MeV?1 which is significantly lower (a factor of 3) than the Jovian electron flux at Earth. The model can also reproduce the extraordinary increase of electrons by a factor of 60 at 12 MeV in the inner heliosheath. A lower limit for the local interstellar spectrum at 12 MeV is estimated to have a value of (90±10) electrons m?2?s?1?sr?1?MeV?1. 相似文献
8.
R. D. Strauss M. S. Potgieter I. Büsching A. Kopp 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2012,339(2):223-236
Drifts are one of the major cosmic ray modulation mechanisms in the heliosphere. Three types of drifts occur in the background
heliospheric magnetic field, namely curvature, gradient and current sheet drifts. The last component occurs because of the
switch in magnetic field polarity across the heliospheric current sheet and is the main topic of study. We discuss and implement
a new approach to model drifts in a numerical modulation model. The model employs stochastic differential equations to solve
the relevant transport equation in five (three spatial, energy and time) dimensions. What is of interest is the fact that
the model can handle current sheet tilt angles up to the theoretical maximum of α=90° and still remain numerically stable. We use the additional insights gained from the numerical model to investigate the
effectiveness of drifts along the current sheet by examining the relationship between the current sheet path length and the
cosmic ray propagation time. It is found that diffusion can disrupt the drift process very effectively, leading to diffusive
short circuiting of the current sheet by the cosmic rays. 相似文献
9.
M. S. Potgieter E. E. Vos M. Boezio N. De Simone V. Di Felice V. Formato 《Solar physics》2014,289(1):391-406
The last solar minimum activity period, and the consequent minimum modulation conditions for cosmic rays, was unusual. The highest levels of galactic protons were recorded at Earth in late 2009 in contrast to expectations. Proton spectra observed for 2006 to 2009 from the PAMELA cosmic ray detector on-board the Resurs-DK1 satellite are presented together with the solutions of a comprehensive numerical model for the solar modulation of cosmic rays. The model is used to determine what mechanisms were mainly responsible for the modulation of protons during this period, and why the observed spectrum for 2009 was the highest ever recorded. From mid-2006 until December 2009 we find that the spectra became significantly softer because increasingly more low energy protons had reached Earth. To simulate this effect, the rigidity dependence of the diffusion coefficients had to decrease significantly below ～?3 GeV. The modulation minimum period of 2009 can thus be described as relatively more ‘diffusion dominated’ than previous solar minima. However, we illustrate that drifts still had played a significant role but that the observable modulation effects were not as well correlated with the waviness of the heliospheric current sheet as before. Protons still experienced global gradient and curvature drifts as the heliospheric magnetic field had decreased significantly until the end of 2009, in contrast to the moderate decreases observed during previous minimum periods. We conclude that all modulation processes contributed to the observed increases in the proton spectra for this period, exhibiting an intriguing interplay of these major mechanisms. 相似文献
10.
A. Potgieter H. Meinke A. Doherty V. O. Sadras G. Hammer S. Crimp D. Rodriguez 《Climatic change》2013,117(1-2):163-179
Climate projections over the next two to four decades indicate that most of Australia’s wheat-belt is likely to become warmer and drier. Here we used a shire scale, dynamic stress-index model that accounts for the impacts of rainfall and temperature on wheat yield, and a range of climate change projections from global circulation models to spatially estimate yield changes assuming no adaptation and no CO2 fertilisation effects. We modelled five scenarios, a baseline climate (climatology, 1901–2007), and two emission scenarios (“low” and “high” CO2) for two time horizons, namely 2020 and 2050. The potential benefits from CO2 fertilisation were analysed separately using a point level functional simulation model. Irrespective of the emissions scenario, the 2020 projection showed negligible changes in the modelled yield relative to baseline climate, both using the shire or functional point scale models. For the 2050-high emissions scenario, changes in modelled yield relative to the baseline ranged from ?5 % to +6 % across most of Western Australia, parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales, and from ?5 to ?30 % in northern NSW, Queensland and the drier environments of Victoria, South Australia and in-land Western Australia. Taking into account CO2 fertilisation effects across a North–south transect through eastern Australia cancelled most of the yield reductions associated with increased temperatures and reduced rainfall by 2020, and attenuated the expected yield reductions by 2050. 相似文献