Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*     

Dryer  M.  Fry  C.D.  Sun  W.  Deehr  C.  Smith  Z.  Akasofu  S.-I.  Andrews  M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867  相似文献   

The three-dimensional geometry of the heliospheric current sheet     

C.D. Fry  S.-I. Akasofu  J.T. Hoeksema  K. Hakamada 《Planetary and Space Science》1985,33(8):915-923

The three-dimensional geometry of the heliospheric current sheet seen from fixed points in interplanetary space is constructed for idealized (sinusoidal) magnetic neutral lines (equators) and for an observed magnetic equator on the basis of the “kinematic method” developed by Hakamada and Akasofu (1982). The cross-sections of the wavy current sheet at distances 1, 2 and 5 a.u. are also constructed for the idealized magnetic neutral lines.  相似文献   

A simulation study of distortion of the heliospheric sheet caused by solar activity     

C.D. Fry  S.-I. Akasofu 《Planetary and Space Science》1985,33(8):925-931

During major geomagnetic storms, the interplanetary magnetic field angle φ (phi) changes often abruptly, either from 135° to 315° or 315° to 135°, suggesting that the heliospheric current sheet is pushed upward or downward by disturbed solar wind. The distortion of the heliospheric current sheet by three successive solar flares is simulated to show that such a flapping motion can occur.  相似文献   

Evaluation of distributed BMPs in an urban watershed—High resolution modeling for stormwater management          下载免费PDF全文

Timothy J. Fry  Reed M. Maxwell 《水文研究》2017,31(15):2700-2712

The urban environment modifies the hydrologic cycle resulting in increased runoff rates, volumes, and peak flows. Green infrastructure, which uses best management practices (BMPs), is a natural system approach used to mitigate the impacts of urbanization onto stormwater runoff. Patterns of stormwater runoff from urban environments are complex, and it is unclear how efficiently green infrastructure will improve the urban water cycle. These challenges arise from issues of scale, the merits of BMPs depend on changes to small‐scale hydrologic processes aggregated up from the neighborhood to the urban watershed. Here, we use a hyper‐resolution (1 m), physically based hydrologic model of the urban hydrologic cycle with explicit inclusion of the built environment. This model represents the changes to hydrology at the BMP scale (~1 m) and represents each individual BMP explicitly to represent response over the urban watershed. Our study varies both the percentage of BMP emplacement and their spatial location for storm events of increasing intensity in an urban watershed. We develop a metric of effectiveness that indicates a nonlinear relationship that is seen between percent BMP emplacement and storm intensity. Results indicate that BMP effectiveness varies with spatial location and that type and emplacement within the urban watershed may be more important than overall percent.  相似文献   

Seasonal Fisheries Changes in Low-Rainfall Mangrove Ecosystems of Iran     

Maryam Shahraki  Brian Fry 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(2):529-541

To determine the role of mangroves for fisheries in the arid region of the Persian Gulf, we investigated fish community structure and trophic diversity in intertidal creeks with and without mangroves. Fish community abundances and biomass were compared across habitats and seasons. To identify variations in overall community trophic niches among habitats and seasons, we measured niches with size-corrected standard ellipse areas (SEA_c) calculated from C and N stable isotope values. Although there was a slightly greater species richness occurred in mangrove creeks, we found a general similarity in the diversity patterns in creeks with and without mangroves. Also, there were no consistent differences in fish abundance or biomass for mangrove vs. non-mangrove fish collections. Community trophic diversity measured as SEA_c also showed no significant difference between mangrove and non-mangrove sites. Instead, strong seasonal patterns were observed in the fish assemblages. Winter samples had consistently higher fish abundance and biomass than summer samples. Winter SEA_c values were significantly higher, indicating that the fish community had a larger isotopic niche in winter than summer. Overall, we found that seasonality was much stronger than habitat in determining fish community structure and trophic diversity in the mangrove and non-mangrove ecosystems of Qeshm Island, Iran.  相似文献   

Seasonal variation of the stable isotopic compositions of coastal marine plankton from Woods Hole,Massachusetts and Georges Bank     

Sam C. Wainright  Brian Fry 《Estuaries and Coasts》1994,17(3):552-560

A study of the isotopic composition of plankton from Woods Hole Harbor was conducted to investigate seasonal variation in carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes in a shallow coastal environment. Stable isotopic ratios of carbon and nitrogen both showed temporal variation on the scale of weeks to months, with heaviest (most positive) values in summer to fall for both isotopes. Particulate organic matter (POM) δ¹³C values were highest (?19‰ to ?21‰) in August to November and lower (?21‰ to ?25‰) at other times of the year, while δ¹³N-POM values were highest (9.5‰ to 12‰) in March to September and lower (7.5‰ to 9.5‰) at other times of the year. Stable isotopic values were significantly correlated with temperature, DI¹³C, and C∶N ratios, but not with [DIC], [POC], [PN], [chlorophyll], or the taxonomic composition of the phytoplankton. There was no direct evidence of allochthonous inputs of carbon and nitrogen to the system. Woods Hole δ¹³C values were virtually identical to Georges Bank plankton values; similar POC: Chlorophyll and C∶N ratios in the two systems further suggest that Woods Hole Harbor is principally a marine system. The high δ¹³C values of net plankton (>20 μm) during summer and early fall are consistent with a smaller degree of photosynthetic isotopic fractionation at that time, related to temperature and/or [CO_2(aq)]. This pattern was not seen, however, in total POM. Plankton δ¹³N values were higher in Woods Hole Harbor than on Georges Bank, especially during warmer periods, possibly due to high rates of nitrification and organic matter recycling in Woods Hole waters. Relatively wide ranges of stable isotopic values from both Woods Hole Harbor and Georges Bank suggest that seasonality should be considered when attempting to establish endmember C and N isotopic values for temperate marine plankton. Preliminary results from size-fractionated samples suggest that cyanobacteria may fractionate carbon isotopes to a greater degree than net phytoplankton.  相似文献   

Sulphur uptake by salt grasses,mangroves, and seagrasses in anaerobic sediments     

Brian Fry  Richard S Scalan  J.Kenneth Winters  Patrick L Parker 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1982,46(6):1121-1124

Stable sulfur isotope analyses show that rooted estuarine plants growing in anoxic sediments incorporate substantial amounts of ³⁴S-depleted sulfides, or oxidation products thereof. In roots, this incorporation predominates over sulfate uptake from interstitial porewater. Either the plants incorporate normally toxic sulfides, or they are creating and using a specialized nutrient pool of oxidized sulfides at the root-sediment interface.  相似文献   

Halo Profiles and the Nonlinear Two- and Three-Point Correlation Functions of Cosmological Mass Density     

Ma CP  Fry JN 《The Astrophysical journal》2000,535(2):L87-L90

NGC 4945 is one of the brightest Seyfert galaxies on the sky at 100 keV, but is completely absorbed below 10 keV; its absorption column is probably the largest that still allows a direct view of the nucleus at hard X-ray energies. Our observations of it with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) satellite confirm the large absorption, which for a simple phenomenological fit using an absorber with solar abundances implies a column of 4.5+0.4-0.4x1024 cm(-2). Using a more realistic scenario (requiring Monte Carlo modeling of the scattering), we infer the optical depth to Thomson scattering of approximately 2.4. If such a scattering medium were to subtend a large solid angle from the nucleus, it should smear out any intrinsic hard X-ray variability on timescales shorter than the light-travel time through it. The rapid (with a timescale of approximately 1 day) hard X-ray variability of NGC 4945 discovered by us with RXTE implies that the bulk of the extreme absorption in this object does not originate in a parsec-size, geometrically thick molecular torus. Instead, the optically thick material on parsec scales must be rather geometrically thin, subtending a half-angle less than 10 degrees, and it is likely to be the same disk of material that is responsible for the water maser emission observed in NGC 4945. Local number counts of Seyfert 1 and Seyfert 2 galaxies show a large population of heavily obscured active galactic nuclei (AGNs) which are proposed to make up the cosmic X-ray background (CXRB). However, for this to be the case, the absorption geometry in the context of axially symmetric unification schemes must have the obscuring material subtending a large scale height-contrary to our inferences about NGC 4945-implying that NGC 4945 is not a prototype of obscured AGNs postulated to make up the CXRB. The small solid angle of the absorber, together with the black hole mass (of approximately 1.4x106 M( middle dot in circle)) from megamaser measurements, allows a robust determination of the nuclear luminosity, which in turn implies that the source radiates at approximately 10% of the Eddington limit.  相似文献   

A comparison of methods of strain determination in rocks from southwest Dyfed (Pembrokeshire) and adjacent areas     

S.S. Hanna  N. Fry 《Journal of Structural Geology》1979,1(2):155-162

A variety of methods devised in the last twelve years for measuring two-dimensional strain ratios have been applied to the same deformed oolitic limestone from southwest Dyfed. Their relative merits are discussed. A graphical method for studying relative locations of marker objects is described and its application to a variety of rocks illustrated. It is shown to have theoretical and practical advantages, while giving values of two-dimensional strain ratios comparable with those of other methods.  相似文献   

Stable carbon isotope evidence for two sources of organic matter in coastal sediments: seagrasses and plankton     

Brian Fry  Richard S Scalan  Patrick L Parker 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1977,41(12):1875-1877

Organic carbon from sediments collected in Texas seagrass meadows was enriched in ¹³C by an average of 6.6% relative to organic carbon from offshore sediments. Within the South Texas hay system examined. δ¹³C values became increasingly more typical of offshore sediments with increasing distance from seagrass meadows. This permits the use of carbon isotope data as a measure of the relative contributions of seagrasses and plankton to sedimentary organic matter.  相似文献