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Dáithí Stone Maximilian Auffhammer Mark Carey Gerrit Hansen Christian Huggel Wolfgang Cramer David Lobell Ulf Molau Andrew Solow Lourdes Tibig Gary Yohe 《Climatic change》2013,118(2):381-395
Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation. 相似文献
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Due to the climate change, vegetation of tundra ecosystems is predicted to shift toward shrub and tree dominance, and this change may influence bryophytes. To estimate how changes in growing environment and the dominance of vascular plants influence bryophyte abundance, we compared the relationship of occurrence of bryophytes among other plant types in a five-year experiment of warming (T), fertilization (F) and T + F in two vegetation types, heath and meadow, in a subarctic–alpine ecosystem. We compared individual leaf area among shrub species to confirm that deciduous shrubs might cause severe shading effect. Effects of neighboring functional types on the performance of Hylocomium splendens was also analyzed.Results show that F and T + F treatments significantly influenced bryophyte abundance negatively. Under natural conditions, bryophytes in the heath site were negatively related to the abundance of shrubs and lichens and the relationship between lichens and bryophytes strengthened after the experimental period. After five years of experimental treatments in the meadow, a positive abundance relationship emerged between bryophytes and deciduous shrubs, evergreen shrubs and forbs. This relationship was not found in the heath site. Our study therefore shows that the abundance relationships between bryophytes and plants in two vegetation types within the same area can be different. Deciduous shrubs had larger leaf area than evergreen shrubs but did not show any shading effect on H. splendens. 相似文献
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We analyse data obtained by different ground-based video camera systems during the 1999 Leonid meteor storm. We observe similar
activity profiles at nearby observing sites, but significant differences over distances in the order of 4,000 km. The main
peak occured at 02:03 UT (λ⊙=235.286, J2000, corrected for the time of the topocentric stream encounter). At the Iberian peninsula quasi-periodic activity
fluctuations with a period of about 7 min were recorded. The camera in Jordan detected a broad plateau of activity at 01:39–01:53
UT, but no periodic variations. The Leonid brightness distribution derived from all cameras shows a lack of faint meteors
with a turning point close to +3m, which corresponds to meteoroids of approximately 10-3 g. We find a pin-point radiant at αalpha=153.65 ±0.1, δ=21.80 ±0. (λ⊙=235.290). The radiant positionis identical before and after the storm, and also during the storm no driftis observed.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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During the 2011 outburst of the Draconid meteor shower, members of the Video Meteor Network of the International Meteor Organization provided, for the first time, fully automated flux density measurements in the optical domain. The data set revealed a primary maximum at 20:09 UT ± 5 min on 8 October 2011 (195.036° solar longitude) with an equivalent meteoroid flux density of (118 ± 10) × 10?3/km2/h at a meteor limiting magnitude of +6.5, which is thought to be caused by the 1900 dust trail. We also find that the outburst had a full width at half maximum of 80 min, a mean radiant position of α = 262.2°, δ = +56.2° (±1.3°) and geocentric velocity of vgeo = 17.4 km/s (±0.5 km/s). Finally, our data set appears to be consistent with a small sub-maximum at 19:34 UT ±7 min (195.036° solar longitude) which has earlier been reported by radio observations and may be attributed to the 1907 dust trail. We plan to implement automated real-time flux density measurements for all known meteor showers on a regular basis soon. 相似文献
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