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1.
Using statistical orbital ranging, we systematically study the orbit computation problem for transneptunian objects (TNOs). We have automated orbit computation for large numbers of objects, and, more importantly, we are able to obtain orbits even for the most sparsely observed objects (observational arcs of a few days). For such objects, the resulting orbit distributions include a large number of high-eccentricity orbits, in which TNOs can be perturbed by close encounters with Neptune. The stability of bodies on the computed orbits has therefore been ascertained by performing a study of close encounters with the major planets. We classify TNO orbit distributions statistically, and we study the evolution of their ephemeris uncertainties. We find that the orbital element distributions for the most numerous single-apparition TNOs do not support the existence of a postulated sharp edge to the belt beyond 50 AU. The technique of statistical ranging provides ephemeris predictions more generally than previously possible also for poorly observed TNOs. 相似文献
2.
Seija Kultti Minna Vliranta Kaarina Sarmaja‐Korjonen Nadia Solovieva Tarmo Virtanen Tommi Kauppila Matti Eronen 《第四纪科学杂志》2003,18(6):503-520
This study investigated Holocene tree‐line history and climatic change in the pre‐Polar Urals, northeast European Russia. A sediment core from Mezhgornoe Lake situated at the present‐day alpine tree‐line was studied for pollen, plant macrofossils, Cladocera and diatoms. A peat section from Vangyr Mire in the nearby mixed mountain taiga zone was analysed for pollen. The results suggest that the study area experienced a climatic optimum in the early Holocene and that summer temperatures were at least 2°C warmer than today. Tree birch immigrated to the Mezhgornoe Lake area at the onset of the Holocene. Mixed spruce forests followed at ca. 9500–9000 14C yr BP. Climate was moist and the water level of Mezhgornoe Lake rose rapidly. The hypsithermal phase lasted until ca. 5500–4500 14C yr BP, after which the mixed forest withdrew from the Mezhgornoe catchment as a result of the climate cooling. The gradual altitudinal downward shift of vegetation zones resulted in the present situation, with larch forming the tree‐line. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
Dagmara Oszkiewicz Karri Muinonen Jenni Virtanen Mikael Granvik 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(12):1897-1904
Abstract— We present a novel Markov‐Chain Monte‐Carlo orbital ranging method (MCMC) for poorly observed single‐apparition asteroids with two or more observations. We examine the Bayesian a posteriori probability density of the orbital elements using methods that map a volume of orbits in the orbital‐element phase space. In particular, we use the MCMC method to sample the phase space in an unbiased way. We study the speed of convergence and also the efficiency of the new method for the initial orbit computation problem. We present the results of the MCMC ranging method applied to three objects from different dynamical groups. We conclude that the method is applicable to initial orbit computation for near‐Earth, main‐belt, and transneptunian objects. 相似文献
4.
Predicted global changes can be studied effectively by combining spatially explicit data sets on vegetation and other landscape properties with process models. However, detailed knowledge of the vegetation distribution of remote Arctic areas is relatively scarce. This paper shows how a mesoscale vegetation and land cover classification of a large, remote Arctic area can be conducted at a fine spatial resolution (30 m cell size) using a limited ground reference data set. The study area is the catchment of the River Usa (93 500 km2 ) in north-eastern European Russia. Vegetation zones in the Usa Basin range from taiga in the south to forest-tundra and tundra in the north, and to alpine in the Ural mountains in the east. Classification was done using a mosaic of spectrally adjusted Landsat TM5 images from five different dates and a semi-supervised method. Ground reference data were collected during the summers of 1998, 1999 and 2000. Accuracy of the 21-class vegetation type/land cover classification produced was tested against test points interpreted from oblique aerial photographs taken from a helicopter (logistic limitations prohibited the collection of representative ground reference data). The main vegetation types (forests, willow dominated stands and meadows, peatlands, tundra heaths, mainly unvegetated areas, and water bodies) were distinguished with relatively high accuracy: 84% of the test points were classified correctly. Spatially detailed land cover data sets like the one described here allow detailed landscape-level analysis and process modelling on many different subjects. 相似文献
5.
Heikki Virtanen 《Journal of Geodynamics》2004,38(3-5):407
Loading by atmosphere and by the Baltic Sea cause gravity change at Metsähovi, located 15 km from the open sea. Gravity is changed by both the Newtonian attraction of the loading mass and by the crustal deformation. We have performed loading calculations using appropriate Green's function for both gravity and deformation, for both atmospheric and Baltic loading. The loading by atmosphere has been computed using a detailed surface pressure field from high resolution limited area model (HIRLAM) for north Europe up to 10° distances. Baltic Sea level is modelled using tide gauge records. Calculations show that 1 m of uniform layer of water corresponds to 31 nm s−2 in gravity and −11 mm in height. Modelled loading is compared with observations of the superconducting gravimeter T020 for years 1994–2002. The combination of HIRLAM and a tide gauge record decreases RMS of gravity residuals by 14% compared to single admittance in air pressure corrections without sea level data. Regression of gravity residuals on the tide gauge record at Helsinki (at 30 km distance) gives a gravity effect of 26 nm s−2 m−1 for Baltic loading.The gravity station is co-located with a permanent GPS station. We have also associated the loading effects of the atmosphere and of the Baltic Sea with temporal height variations. The range of modelled vertical motion due to air pressure was 46 mm and that due to sea level 18 mm. The total range was 38 mm. The effects of the Baltic Sea and of the atmosphere partly cancel each other, since at longer periods the inverse barometer assumption is valid. Regression of the modelled height on local air pressure gives −0.37 mm hPa−1, corresponding approximately to width 6° for pressure system.We have tested the models using one year of daily GPS data. Multilinear regression on local air pressure and sea level in Helsinki gives the coefficient −0.34 mm hPa−1 for pressure, and −11 mm m−1 for sea level. These match model values. Loading by air pressure and Baltic Sea explains nearly 40% of the variance of daily GPS height solutions. 相似文献
6.
Tapani Virtanen 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1969,5(1):76-77
A new identification for spectral lines of the N-galaxy 3 C 371 is proposed. The resulting redshift isz=0.40. 相似文献
7.
We evaluate the asteroid impact risk from the discovery night onwards using six-dimensional statistical orbit computation techniques to examine the a posteriori probability density of the orbital elements. Close to the discovery moment the observational data of an object are typically exiguous: the number of observations is very small and/or the covered orbital arc is very short. For such data, the covariance matrices computed in the linear approximation (e.g., with the least-squares technique) are known to fail to describe the uncertainties in the orbital parameters. The technique of statistical ranging gives us rigorous means to assess the orbital uncertainties already on the discovery night. To examine the time evolution of orbital uncertainties, we make use of a new nonlinear Monte Carlo technique of phase-space sampling using volumes of variation, which complements the ranging technique for exiguous data and the least-squares technique for extensive observational data. We apply the statistical techniques to the near-Earth Asteroid 2004 AS1, which grabbed the attention of asteroid scientists because, for one day, it posed the highest and most immediate impact risk so far recorded. We take this extreme case to illustrate the ambiguities in the impact risk assessment for short arcs. We confirm that the weighted fraction of the collision orbits at discovery was large but conclude that this was mostly due to the discordance of the discovery-night observations. This case study highlights the need to introduce a regularization in terms of an a priori probability density to secure the invariance of the probabilistic analysis especially in the nonlinear orbital inversion for short arcs. We remark that a predominant role of the a priori can give indications of the feasibility of the probabilistic interpretation, that is, how reliable the results derived from the a posteriori probability density are. Nevertheless, the strict mathematical definition of, e.g., the collision probability remains valid, and our nonlinear statistical techniques give us the means to always deduce, at the very least, order-of-magnitude-estimates for the collision probability. 相似文献
8.
Mikko Kaasalainen Petr Pravec Lenka Šarounová Jenni Virtanen Anders Erikson Josef ?urech Johan S.V. Lagerros Claes-Ingvar Lagerkvist John Davies Peter Kušnirák Vasilij G. Shevchenko Irina N. Belskaya 《Icarus》2004,167(1):178-196
We present new observations and models of the shapes and rotational states of the eight near-Earth Asteroids (1580) Betulia, (1627) Ivar, (1980) Tezcatlipoca, (2100) Ra-Shalom, (3199) Nefertiti, (3908) Nyx, (4957) Brucemurray, and (5587) 1990 SB. We also outline some of their solar phase curves, corrected to common reference geometry with the models. Some of the targets may feature sizable global nonconvexities, but the observable solar phase angles were not sufficiently high for confirming these. None is likely to have a very densely cratered surface. We discuss the role of the intermediate topographic scale range in photometry, and surmise that this scale range is less important than large or small scale lengths. 相似文献
9.
Mikael Granvik Jenni Virtanen Dagmara Oszkiewicz Karri Muinonen 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(12):1853-1861
Abstract— We are making an open‐source asteroid orbit computation software package called OpenOrb publicly available. OpenOrb is built on a well‐established Bayesian inversion theory, which means that it is to a large part complementary to orbit‐computation packages currently available. In particular, OpenOrb is the first package that contains tools for rigorously estimating the uncertainties resulting from the inverse problem of computing orbital elements using scarce astrometry. In addition to the well‐known least‐squares method, OpenOrb also contains both Monte‐Carlo (MC) and Markov‐Chain MC (MCMC; Oszkiewicz et al. [2009]) versions of the statistical ranging method. Ranging allows the user to obtain sampled, non‐Gaussian orbital‐element probability‐density functions and is therefore optimized for cases where the amount of astrometry is scarce or spans a relatively short time interval. Ranging‐based methods have successfully been applied to a variety of different problems such as rigorous ephemeris prediction, orbital element distribution studies for transneptunian objects, the computation of invariant collision probabilities between near‐Earth objects and the Earth, detection of linkages between astrometric asteroid observations within an apparition as well as between apparitions, and in the rigorous analysis of the impact of orbital arc length and/or astrometric uncertainty on the uncertainty of the resulting orbits. Tools for making ephemeris predictions and for classifying objects based on their orbits are also available in OpenOrb. As an example, we use OpenOrb in the search for candidate retrograde and/or high‐inclination objects similar to 2008 KV42 in the known population of transneptunian objects that have an observational time span shorter than 30 days. 相似文献
10.
The loading effect of the Baltic Sea is immediately recognizable in the gravity record of the superconducting gravimeter T020 in Metsähovi, Finland, by simply inspecting residual gravity together with the tide gauge record at Helsinki 30 km away. The station is 10 km from the nearest bay of the Baltic Sea and 15 km from the open sea. Sea level variations in the Baltic are non-tidal and driven at short periods primarily by wind stress, at longer periods by water exchange through the Danish straits. Locally they can have a range of 2–3 m. Loading calculations show that a uniform layer of water covering the complete Baltic Sea increases the gravity in Metsähovi by 31 nm/s2 per 1 m of water, and the vertical deformation is −11 mm. The observed gravity response to the local sea level is generally less, since the variations at short periods are far from uniform areally, the same water volume just being redistributed to different places. Regression of the whole gravity record (1994-2001) on local sea level gives 50–70% of the uniform layer response, as do loading calculations using actual water distributions derived from 11 tide gauges. However, both fits are dominated by some extreme values of short duration, and parts of the gravity record with long-period variations in sea level are close to the uniform layer response. The gravity observations can be used to test corrections for other co-located geodetic observations (GPS, satellite laser ranging) which are influenced by the load effect but not sensitive enough to discriminate between models. 相似文献