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Delay-difference models are intermediate between simple surplus-production models and complicated age-structured models. Such intermediate models are more efficient and require less data than age-structured models. In this study, a delay-difference model was applied to fit catch and catch per unit effort(CPUE) data(1975–2011) of the southern Atlantic albacore(Thunnus alalunga) stock. The proposed delay-difference model captures annual fluctuations in predicted CPUE data better than Fox model. In a Monte Carlo simulation, white noises(CVs) were superimposed on the observed CPUE data at four levels. Relative estimate error was then calculated to compare the estimated results with the true values of parameters α and β in Ricker stock-recruitment model and the catchability coefficient q. α is more sensitive to CV than β and q. We also calculated an 80% percentile confidence interval of the maximum sustainable yield(MSY, 21756 t to 23408 t; median 22490 t) with the delay-difference model. The yield of the southern Atlantic albacore stock in 2011 was 24122 t, and the estimated ratios of catch against MSY for the past seven years were approximately 1.0. We suggest that care should be taken to protect the albacore fishery in the southern Atlantic Ocean. The proposed delay-difference model provides a good fit to the data of southern Atlantic albacore stock and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional albacore stock. 相似文献
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The catch and effort data of Sillago sihama fishery in Pakistani waters were used to investigate the performance of two closely related stock assessment models: logistic and generalized surplus-production models. Compared with the generalized production model, the logistic model produced more reasonable estimates for parameters such as maximum sustainable yield. The Akaike’s Information Criterion values estimated at 4.265 and -51.152 respectively by the logistic and generalized models. Simulation analyses of the S. sihama fishery showed that the estimated and observed abundance indices for the logistic model were closer than those for the generalized production model. Standardized residuals were distributed closer for logistic model, but exhibited a slightly increasing trend for the generalized model. Statistical outliers were seen in 1989 and 1993 for the logistic model, and in 1981 and 1999 for the generalized model. Simulated results revealed that the logistic estimates were close to the true value for low CVs (coefficients of variation) but widely dispersed for high CVs. In contrast, the generalized model estimates were loose for all CV levels. The estimated production model curve parameter was not reasonable at all the tested levels of white noise. With the increase in white noise R2 for the catch per unit effort decreased. Therefore, we conclude that the logistic model performs more reasonably than the generalized production model. 相似文献
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Kui Zhang Ping Geng Jiajun Li Youwei Xu Muhsan Ali Kalhoro Mingshuai Sun Dengfu Shi Zuozhi Chen 《海洋学报(英文版)》2022,41(3):24-33
Long-term variations in population structure, growth, mortality, length at median sexual maturity, and exploitation rate of threadfin bream(Nemipterus virgatus) are reported based on bottom trawl survey data collected during 1960–2012 in the Beibu Gulf, South China Sea. Laboratory-based analyses were conducted on 16 791 individuals collected quarterly in eight different sampling years. Average body length, estimated asymptotic length, and percentage of large individuals have decreased significan... 相似文献
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Mohsin Muhammad Mu Yongtong Memon Aamir Mahmood Kalhoro Muhammad Talib Shah Syed Baber Hussain 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2017,35(4):936-946
Pakistani marine waters are under an open access regime.Due to poor management and policy implications,blind fishing is continued which may result in ecological as well as economic losses.Thus,it is of utmost importance to estimate fishery resources before harvesting.In this study,catch and effort data,1996-2009,of Kiddi shrimp Parapenaeopsis stylifera fishery from Pakistani marine waters was analyzed by using specialized fishery software in order to know fishery stock status of this commercially important shrimp.Maximum,minimum and average capture production of P.stylifera was observed as 15 912 metric tons(mt)(1997),9 438 mt(2009) and 11 667 mt/a.Two stock assessment tools viz.CEDA(catch and effort data analysis) and ASPIC(a stock production model incorporating covariates) were used to compute MSY(maximum sustainable yield) of this organism.In CEDA,three surplus production models,Fox,Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson,along with three error assumptions,log,log normal and gamma,were used.For initial proportion(IP) 0.8,the Fox model computed MSY as 6 858 mt(CV=0.204,R~2=0.709) and 7 384 mt(CV=0.149,R~2=0.72) for log and log normal error assumption respectively.Here,gamma error produced minimization failure.Estimated MSY by using Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models remained the same for log,log normal and gamma error assumptions i.e.7 083 mt,8 209 mt and 7 242 mt correspondingly.The Schafer results showed highest goodness of fit R~2(0.712) values.ASPIC computed MSY,CV,R~2,F_(MSY)and B_(MSY) parameters for the Fox model as 7 219 mt,0.142,0.872,0.111 and 65 280,while for the Logistic model the computed values remained 7 720 mt,0.148,0.868,0.107 and 72 110 correspondingly.Results obtained have shown that P.stylifera has been overexploited.Immediate steps are needed to conserve this fishery resource for the future and research on other species of commercial importance is urgently needed. 相似文献
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Japanese threadfin bream Nemipterus japonicus(Bloch, 1791) is among the most abundant and commercially important species in Pakistan. From the coast of Pakistan, four demersal trawl surveys in October–November 2009 and May–June, August, October and November in 2010 were carried out. The purpose of this study is to estimate the population dynamics and status of the stock of the N. japonicus from Pakistani waters based on the research trawl surveys from the research area. The data consist of n=784 length-weight pairs and n=7 530 length frequency with the maximum length and weight of 29 cm and 358 g respectively. The length frequency data were analyzed using ELEFAN method in FiSAT computer package. The parameters of length and weight relationship were b=2.778, a=0.032 and R2=0.973. The estimated von Bertalanffy growth function parameters were L∞=30.45 cm, K=0.270 year-1. Based on length-converted catch curve analysis the total mortality(Z) during this study was estimated at 0.960 year-1. The natural mortality coefficient(M) was 0.74 year-1 using Pauly's equation(the annual average sea surface temperature was 27°C), therefore, the fishing mortality coefficients(F) were 0.22 year-1. The yield per recruit analysis indicated that when tc was 2, Fmax was estimated at 1.2 and F0.1 at 1.1. When tc was 1, Fmax was estimated at 0.95 and F0.1 at 0.8. Because current age at first capture is about 1 year and Fcurrent was 0.22, Fcurrent is smaller than F0.1 and Fmax, which indicated that the fishery is about in a safe condition. When using Gulland(1971) biological reference point, Fopt was equals to M(0.74). The current fishing mortality rate of 0.22 was smaller than the target biological reference point. 相似文献
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Baochao Liao Qun Liu Xiaohui Wang Kui Zhang Jianxun Zhang Khadim Hussain Memon Muhsan Ali Kalhoro 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(1):39-45
An n-species stochastic Gilpin–Ayala cooperative model was investigated in this study. The Lyapunov function and the M-matrix method were applied to study the stability of the solutions. Sufficient conditions for the existence of a global positive solution of the Gilpin–Ayala cooperative model were established. Certain asymptotically stable results of a global positive solution of the cooperative model and its domain of attraction were estimated. That main objective of this study is to provide corrections for errors in some theorems given in the work of Lian et al. (2007). The errors of Theorems 2, 3, 5, and 6 from the published work appeared in the parameters θ i and p ii . 相似文献
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