Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Muthiah Perumal  Bhabagrahi Sahoo 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(2):415-422

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.  相似文献   

A geomorphology‐based integrated stream–aquifer interaction model for semi‐gauged catchments     

Soumyaranjan Sahoo  Bhabagrahi Sahoo 《水文研究》2019,33(9):1362-1377

Many of the existing stream–aquifer interaction models available in the literature are very complex with limited applicability in semi‐gauged and ungauged catchments. In this study, to estimate the influent and effluent subsurface water fluxes under limited geo‐hydrometeorological data availability conditions, a simple stream–aquifer interaction model, namely, the variable parameter McCarthy–Muskingum (VPMM) hillslope‐storage Boussinesq (hsB) model, has been developed. This novel model couples the VPMM streamflow transport with the hsB groundwater flow transport modules in online mode. In this integrated model, the surface water–groundwater flux exchange process is modelled by the Darcian approach with the variable hydraulic heads between the river stage and groundwater table accounting for the rainfall forcing. Considering the exchange fluxes in the hyporheic zone and lateral overland flow contribution, this approach is field tested in a typical 48‐km stretch of the Brahmani River in eastern India to simulate the streamflow and its depth with the minimum Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 94% and 88%; the maximum root mean square error of 134 m³/s and 0.35 m; and the minimum index of agreement of 98% and 97%, respectively. This modelling approach could be very well utilized in data‐scarce world‐river basins to estimate the stream–aquifer exchange flux due to rainfall forcings.  相似文献   

Identification of Suitable Hydrological Models for Streamflow Assessment in the Kangsabati River Basin,India, by Using Different Model Selection Scores     

Kumari  Nikul  Srivastava  Ankur  Sahoo  Bhabagrahi  Raghuwanshi  Narendra Singh  Bretreger  David 《Natural Resources Research》2021,30(6):4187-4205

The increasing demand for water in developing countries, like India, requires efficient water management and resource allocation. This is crucial to accurately assess and predict hydrological processes such as streamflow, drought, and flood. However, simulations of these hydrologic processes from various hydrological models differ in their accuracy. By analyzing different characteristics of hydrological models, selection scores can be used to select the best model for the intended purpose based on their inherit strengths (i.e., some models are better for streamflow prediction). In this study, 13 different criteria were used for the model selection scores including temporal and spatial resolutions, and processes involved. Thereafter, based on different scores, we selected two different hydrological models for streamflow prediction in the Kangsabati River Basin (KRB) in eastern India, namely (1) Génie Rural à 4 paramètres Journalier (GR4J), a conceptual model, and (2) Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), a semi-distributed model. The models were calibrated against the daily observed streamflow at upper KRB (Reservoir) and lower KRB (Mohanpur) from 2000 to 2006 and validated during the period from 2008 to 2010. Despite the differences in model structure and data used, both models simulated streamflow at a daily time scale with Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.71–0.82 for the VIC model and 0.63–0.71 for the GR4J. Due to the simpler structure, parsimonious nature, fewer parameters, and reasonable accuracy, the results suggest that a conceptual rainfall—runoff model like GR4J can be used in data-deficient conditions.

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A multilinear discrete Nash-cascade model for stage-hydrograph routing in compound river channels     

Bhabagrahi Sahoo  Muthiah Perumal  Tommaso Moramarco  Silvia Barbetta  Soumyaranjan Sahoo 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(3):335-347

ABSTRACT

Stream gauge-based information is the foundation for many hydrological applications in a river basin including the aquatic-habitat conservation. A simple two-parameter model for routing streamflow depth (alternatively, stream–stage) hydrographs and estimating corresponding discharge hydrographs in river channels is proposed using the multilinear approach, based on Nash-type discrete-cascade model. The applicability of this model is investigated by extending its framework to the realm of compound cross-section trapezoidal channels for both in-bank and overbank flows by using 20 flood events of the Tiber River in the Umbria region of Central Italy, and subsequently comparing the simulated results with the corresponding simulations of the HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center – River Analysis System) hydrodynamic model and observed flow depth hydrographs. The field application, comparative study, and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the results demonstrate that the proposed multilinear discrete Nash-cascade stage-hydrograph (MDNS) routing model has the potential for routing floods in real-world rivers and canal irrigation systems, especially in operational mode.  相似文献   

Impact of LULC change on the runoff,base flow and evapotranspiration dynamics in eastern Indian river basins during 1985–2005 using variable infiltration capacity approach     

Pulakesh Das  Mukunda Dev Behera  Nitesh Patidar  Bhabagrahi Sahoo  Poonam Tripathi  Priti Ranjan Behera  S K Srivastava  Partha Sarathi Roy  Praveen Thakur  S P Agrawal  Y V N Krishnamurthy 《Journal of Earth System Science》2018,127(2):19

As a catchment phenomenon, land use and land cover change (LULCC) has a great role in influencing the hydrological cycle. In this study, decadal LULC maps of 1985, 1995, 2005 and predicted-2025 of the Subarnarekha, Brahmani, Baitarani, Mahanadi and Nagavali River basins of eastern India were analyzed in the framework of the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model to estimate their relative consequences. The model simulation showed a decrease in ET with 0.0276% during 1985–1995, but a slight increase with 0.0097% during 1995–2005. Conversely, runoff and base flow showed an overall increasing trend with 0.0319 and 0.0041% respectively during 1985–1995. In response to the predicted LULC in 2025, the VIC model simulation estimated reduction of ET with 0.0851% with an increase of runoff by 0.051%. Among the vegetation parameters, leaf area index (LAI) emerged as the most sensitive one to alter the simulated water balance. LULC alterations via deforestation, urbanization, cropland expansions led to reduced canopy cover for interception and transpiration that in turn contributed to overall decrease in ET and increase in runoff and base flow. This study reiterates changes in the hydrology due to LULCC, thereby providing useful inputs for integrated water resources management in the principle of sustained ecology.  相似文献